$10 NL HE MTT: Pocket rockets facing a big donk bet on the river

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

10

Game Options

1. Turbo

Currency

$

Hand is from the first blind level in a 10$ 18-man SnG on pokerstars. The opponent was playing VPIP 41/PFR 26 over 27 hands.

PokerStars, $9.22 + $0.78 - Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 (3 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG (Hero): 1,491 (75 bb)
UTG+1: 1,491 (75 bb)
MP: 1,491 (75 bb)
MP+1: 1,491 (75 bb)
LP: 1,481 (74 bb)
CO: 1,706 (85 bb)
BU: 1,461 (73 bb)
SB: 1,477 (74 bb)
BB: 1,411 (71 bb)

Pre-Flop: (57) Hero is UTG with A♥ A♠
Hero raises to 60, 7 players fold, BB calls 40

Flop: (157) 2♦ 3♦ 7♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 63, BB calls 63

Turn: (283) 6♥ (2 players)
BB bets 40, Hero raises to 145, BB calls 105

River: (573) T♥ (2 players)
BB bets 1,140 (all-in), Hero?

 

[puzzlefish]

Just one of those spots where you might call and either see a lower overpair or get disappointed by getting setmined, two pair connector or a straight. The fishy turn bet is pretty much a little probe screaming a set since it's trying to get you to bet harder. Then the "polarizing" boring jam on the river, so you are left wondering if it's a bluff or someone that has you exactly where they want you.

It's a fold for me. I would rather look for a better spot with what would still be a decent stack size than find out if this is a bluff or not.

 

[fundiver199]

Thanks for the input. I think, its completely fine to fold here with an SPR of almost 10. However to me his story just did not make sense, so I got curious and locked him up. In my experience a min-donk on the flop or turn is usually some kind of weak hand trying to set its own price and see the next card for cheap. Also known as "blocker bet". Sometimes it is an inducer or "probe", but then it is usually followed up with a 3-bet, when the opponent find out, he has you, where he want.

Lets just go with the idea, the opponent had a set or straight on the turn or even just two pair. Then why would he not come back over the top and put the rest in on the river? In that way he would be giving me a better price, and he could get value on the turn from hands, that might call a small raise but are not willing to play for stacks. And even if he was slowplaying or got there on the river with TT or 98 of diamonds, then why not go for a check-raise? If I have a hand, thats strong enough to pay off an overbet jam, then I am going to bet it when checked to, and I am also going to bluff with some busted draws. So his river line makes no sense for value, but it gives him a lot of fold equity.

Results: He had K9 offsuit so a pretty random bluff.

 

[300HPGOD]

Lets just go with the idea, the opponent had a set or straight on the turn or even just two pair. Then why would he not come back over the top and put the rest in on the river? In that way he would be giving me a better price, and he could get value on the turn from hands, that might call a small raise but are not willing to play for stacks.

This is really good thinking and the same I thought as well when going through the hand. With a board that has a flush draw I doubt villain would play the turn with a set in this way. They might min bet to induce but once they got that inducement they would have raised for sure. Not sure I would have the guts to call the river ( I hope I would in game) but that non re-raise on the turn is key and I think it eliminates a lot of made hands including two pair hands. I would hate the 10 coming on the river since it does complete 98 (which may play this way as blocker bet which you mentioned) but I would think those hands would bet the river (for fear of check behind) but would not bomb the river but instead make a bet where they would be getting value. Your interpretation of the hand is spot on by seeing that this isnt making sense what the villain is doing and making the call.

 

[puzzlefish]

Thanks for the input. I think, its completely fine to fold here with an SPR of almost 10. However to me his story just did not make sense, so I got curious and locked him up. In my experience a min-donk on the flop or turn is usually some kind of weak hand trying to set its own price and see the next card for cheap. Also known as "blocker bet". Sometimes it is an inducer or "probe", but then it is usually followed up with a 3-bet, when the opponent find out, he has you, where he want.

Lets just go with the idea, the opponent had a set or straight on the turn or even just two pair. Then why would he not come back over the top and put the rest in on the river? In that way he would be giving me a better price, and he could get value on the turn from hands, that might call a small raise but are not willing to play for stacks. And even if he was slowplaying or got there on the river with TT or 98 of diamonds, then why not go for a check-raise? If I have a hand, thats strong enough to pay off an overbet jam, then I am going to bet it when checked to, and I am also going to bluff with some busted draws. So his river line makes no sense for value, but it gives him a lot of fold equity.

Results: He had K9 offsuit so a pretty random bluff.

I definitely appreciate the thought process, although you are making the assumption as to what a reasonably strong player would do versus someone who doesn't play with that logic, and I really wonder how many of them you would pick off with the bluff in this spot vs the bingo-I-got-the-nuts all-in spew.

 

[fundiver199]

I definitely appreciate the thought process, although you are making the assumption as to what a reasonably strong player would do versus someone who doesn't play with that logic, and I really wonder how many of them you would pick off with the bluff in this spot vs the bingo-I-got-the-nuts all-in spew.

I think, it depends somewhat on the buyin. In a freeroll or very low buyin like 1$ you will find more complete beginners, who have a thought proces like "LOL I have the nuts I am all in", and if you call that kind of player, then 9 out of 10 times you will get shown 98 for a rivered straight or TT for top set. But when people get a little more experience with poker, even if they are still recreational players, they do begin to understand, that this is not always the best way to get paid. The HUD-stats also give information. 41/26 is a bit of a maniac, whereas for instance 41/6 would indicate a lot more passivity preflop and then usually also less bluffing postflop.