$1 NLHE MTT: Simple one, Shove or fold?

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Just to point out, for some reason, the hand convertor hasn't figured out that the ante was 75 so my M is more like 5.

No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 400/800 Blinds (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

UTG+1 (t57252)
MP1 (t12075)
Hero (MP2) (t9800)
MP3 (t29905)
CO (t63238)
Button (t22845)
SB (t6350)
BB (t19707)
UTG (t39129)

Hero's M: 8.17

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 10♠, K♠
3 folds...

Shove or fold?

 

[Marginal]

Le easy fold? Unlesss everyone is super nit

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Quite a tight table, already ITM and running pretty damn low on chips.

 

[cjatud2012]

I understand the feeling of urgency here but I'd rather shove 54s on the button than push this into 5 opponents. We have a little less than 8bb's effective, so unless the blinds are about to go up I think we can wait.

I'd like to see the hands before this actually, if there was another spot where we could shove from late position so we could avoid this spot.

 

[onemorechance]

I'd fold, but I think it's pretty close

 

[bgomez89]

easy fold

 

[sweepnet]

I also think it is to early wait for something a bit better

 

[arahel_jazz]

Too many opportunites behind you to act with much larger stacks.

Fold. There's two smaller stacks that are at greater risk, even with the blind heading your way.

 

[fletchdad]

Echo, Echo, Echo, Echo, Echo, Echo, Echo, whats been said above. Fold. I agree that it is tempting to shove here, its not a terrible hand, but the CO has you covered and can comfortably call or isolate you here, if MP3 or button have a decent hand, your desperation is apparent, SB is more desperate than you and may look to double up on you (not to mention he may well be out before you as well, moving you up a bit), and Cjs button comment makes lots of sense here. You may get a better hand anyway, and if you get to the button with 2 7o, and have a raiser and even a caller as well, it happens. Was worth waiting even if it does not work out.

IMO patience pays off more than not. You may get trash and raisers in front, but I have found in spots like this, resisting the desperation move when all your other options have not been passed pays off more than not.

 

[PattyR]

has to be tempting as hell here to push...especially since u've been so card dead or whatever. i dont think shoving here is terribad and not sure if you will ever get a better spot in the tourney....to go against everybody else i jus say ship it and go for it

 

[fletchdad]

has to be tempting as hell here to push...especially since u've been so card dead or whatever. i dont think shoving here is terribad and not sure if you will ever get a better spot in the tourney....to go against everybody else i jus say ship it and go for it

I agree that its close. And I dont think either move is wrong. JB mentioned that the table has been tight, but the bubble has burst and players tend to loosen up their calling ranges after bubble play. I used to be exactly your opinion, but have been practicing patience here more.

As one example, I was in an MTT last night, and a good player who I have been in a few games with was down to around 7 BB, and he was folding for 2 orbits, down to <4 BB and I was wondering if he was just gonna let himself be blinded out. He winds up with AK, and shoves on a raise with a caller, and triples up. 3 orbits later he was in 2nd place on the leader board with 24 players left. from last place to second, all because of patience. Sure, he could have pushed a decent but marginal desperation hand, and he could have not gotten AK, it could have not held etc. But it can pay big to wait. Either way you are taking a risk.

But thats just IMO.

 

[Poker Orifice]

SHIP IT!!!!
12bb's from MP you should be able to profitably shove Top21.6%

This answer hasn't just been pulled out of may ass.. but is actually based off of a couple of in-depth "MTT" shoving charts from a couple of coaches that put them together.

 

[fletchdad]

SHIP IT!!!!

Why use so many words, when just 2 will do.....

 

[ben_rhyno]

EZ Shove imo

 

[fletchdad]

I love it in these threads!!!
"Easy fold"
"Easy shove"

Since I am guessing that these answers come from players who are not idiots, (a couple I know are not) then that leads me to believe, this is not an "easy" anything.

I read a comment in another thread by Poker Orifice saying "winning tournaments=winning flips" and that rang very true. You wont ever win at any form of poker by shying away from confrontation,. Poker is a "Contact sport". Cj (sorry, you are always "cj" to me.lol) made a very good point about if there were hands earlier and spots that you missed. If you find yourself in spots like these, it is real helpful to review the entire game and see if this was avoidable because of good confrontational spots that you shyed away from.

And while I do believe patience is a very underused tool in certain situations, this is a situation where patience can mean you just as out as losing on a push.

So to make my point, use this hand not just as a "what do I do here" hand, but also as a "did I really need to be here" hand, if ya know what I mean.

 

[ben_rhyno]

To explain my point, the pot already is 1/5th of your stack, so a shove that gets through here nets you +20% in stack size. In 3 hands,if you fold, you are back in the BB and will have lost around 10% of your stack, assuming the blinds don't go up. Even if called light when you shove, you are only really a true dog to AA/KK/AK/KQ/KJ and winning flips here (vs AQ/AJ/AT/22-99) is necessary as you are already the 2nd shortest stack on your table. Also if the SB is the only caller and wins, you're still in the tourney. This is why to me in this particular situation, it is an easy shove and I don't think twice about it.

 

[RamdeeBen]

I think I'd fold from that postion most of the time and nearly everyone has you covered, at micros as I'm sure you're aware in a MTT anyone holding an Ace with a big stack is likely to call. I guess it's an easier shove in the cut off or button but still I'm not sure If I would..

 

[ben_rhyno]

We don't mind a call from any ace though except AK or AT. At this point we must be willing to take a race given the amount in the pot before we bet and the fact that we are in need of a double up to have any chance of making a splash in the tournament.

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Almost everyone in the tournament has me covered Ram! I can't wait for a spot where I can get it in and still have some left over 'just in case', I have to find a +EV spot, and I was 50/50 as to if this was it. I actually got called by the BB with KK and flop came JQ but I missed the straight and went out. My mate was on MSN and said what did you have and he told me it was a terrible shove, so I thought I'd see what the general consensus was. Seems I was right and it's about 50/50 lol.

 

[Pascal-lf]

With antes I shove, but it's probably bottom of my range

 

[ben_rhyno]

Pasc I can see a private message waiting from you but can't open it, just so u know i aint ignoring u

 

[baudib1]

I'd get it in here especially if blinds are reasonably tight and we don't have an awful image.

 

[MediaBLITZ]

Personally I probably would have passed but no way would I call it a terrible shove. In fact I would more expect to get chastised for folding.