$1 NL HE MTT: Bubble Spot ICM

[Matt_Burns88]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

1

Currency

$

Morning All, I think ICM is one of the things I really need to work on, but not really sure where to start. I don't have ICMizer or HRC to run these spots, so I have no idea what is good and what's bad, but I am finding a lot of Axo hands in BTN and CO that I am folding on or very close to the bubble, especially when there is a super short stack. Is this a shove or fold on the stone bubble?

 

[fundiver199]

Absolutely a shove. You are not getting called very often, and when they fold, you increase your stack by 17%, which is huge. You would not make a significant mistake shoving any AX here, but if you are going to fold some, then it would be the worst offsuit ones like A2-A4 and A6-A7.

 

[rhoudini]

Quite hard spot, but I agree with the shove. Of course, when you get called, the chances of you being dominated is quite big. But you will not be called too often.
One thing is for sure: you don't necessarily need to worry about the short stack, but the big stack that will call you more frequently than the short one.

A reasonable range for the big stack to call you is 99+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs maybe? If I am the big stack on SB, I think I call only you with these hands, because in theory everybody will play less hands in the bubble. Depending on the player, hands like 88, 77, AJo, might be added to this range.

Against this range you have only 32% of equity, but this range only represents 6.6% to 7.5% of the hands (assuming it is correct).
This range is much more tighter for the player on BB.

So I think shoving is good, because as the short stack, you can't be just thinking about surviving the bubble. Of couse, you need to be tighter and take good decisions, but these decisions can not be controlled by fear of busting. If you don't steal blinds too, you will be much shorter some time soon.

Consider this example of mine: last weekend I was on the bubble of the $4.5K pokerstars Community Freeroll, and I had about 21 BBs on the small blind. I had AKo. Player on MP (with 22 BBs) raised to 2.5 BB, and a big stack (about 70 BBs) called on the button, and I thought, "Well, this might be a great spot for a squeeze, because there are about 7.5 BBs on the pot, this would increase my stack by almost 40%. And when I get called, I still have a lot of equity."
Then I moved all-in. As I thought, MP folded, but BU called showing 88. I lost the flip, and got busted.
Well, this was in a big freeroll, ok, but I would have proceeded the exact same way in any paid tournament.
I knew that MP was going to fold all non-premium hands, and BU was going to call a lot of times with hands like AQ, AJ, KQ, and small pocket pairs like 77-TT. My range has not only AK, but also all premium hands (JJ+).
Ok, we busted, but a lot of times we would have a great stack. If we play a few tournaments, this might hurt, but as much more volume we make, the chances of running deep is bigger.

I hope it makes sense, if someone spot an error on my post, please tell me, I would be grateful.

 

[Matt_Burns88]

Thanks guys. That was my instinct when reviewing, but I folded in game and was trying to convince myself that it might have been the right play.

 

[Matt_Burns88]

Absolutely a shove. You are not getting called very often, and when they fold, you increase your stack by 17%, which is huge. You would not make a significant mistake shoving any AX here, but if you are going to fold some, then it would be the worst offsuit ones like A2-A4 and A6-A7.

@fundiver199 - you get a gold star and student of the week award!

I had a friend run this spot in HRC and you nailed folding A2-A4 and A6-A7!

 

[eetenor]

Quite hard spot, but I agree with the shove. Of course, when you get called, the chances of you being dominated is quite big. But you will not be called too often.
One thing is for sure: you don't necessarily need to worry about the short stack, but the big stack that will call you more frequently than the short one.

A reasonable range for the big stack to call you is 99+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs maybe? If I am the big stack on SB, I think I call only you with these hands, because in theory everybody will play less hands in the bubble. Depending on the player, hands like 88, 77, AJo, might be added to this range.

Against this range you have only 32% of equity, but this range only represents 6.6% to 7.5% of the hands (assuming it is correct).
This range is much more tighter for the player on BB.

So I think shoving is good, because as the short stack, you can't be just thinking about surviving the bubble. Of couse, you need to be tighter and take good decisions, but these decisions can not be controlled by fear of busting. If you don't steal blinds too, you will be much shorter some time soon.

Consider this example of mine: last weekend I was on the bubble of the $4.5K PokerStars Community Freeroll, and I had about 21 BBs on the small blind. I had AKo. Player on MP (with 22 BBs) raised to 2.5 BB, and a big stack (about 70 BBs) called on the button, and I thought, "Well, this might be a great spot for a squeeze, because there are about 7.5 BBs on the pot, this would increase my stack by almost 40%. And when I get called, I still have a lot of equity."
Then I moved all-in. As I thought, MP folded, but BU called showing 88. I lost the flip, and got busted.
Well, this was in a big freeroll, ok, but I would have proceeded the exact same way in any paid tournament.
I knew that MP was going to fold all non-premium hands, and BU was going to call a lot of times with hands like AQ, AJ, KQ, and small pocket pairs like 77-TT. My range has not only AK, but also all premium hands (JJ+).
Ok, we busted, but a lot of times we would have a great stack. If we play a few tournaments, this might hurt, but as much more volume we make, the chances of running deep is bigger.

I hope it makes sense, if someone spot an error on my post, please tell me, I would be grateful.

Regarding the AK spot nothing wrong with your thought process . The key data point is the big stack is live.

On the bubble at your stack depth we can also play AKoff like a drawing hand and flat the raise some % of the time. We know we are dominating all AX and KX hands that we can get max value from at 20bb's post flop and it allows us to get away from the hand if we flop nothing. Had the V stacks been similar in sizes our success frequency in getting folds increases so we would flat much less often but in a freeroll-players love to call-with one stack being so large we can play to protect our min cash

So yes we can shove but yes we can also flat this exact spot and retain a very playable stack size and min cash🤑

 

[rhoudini]

Regarding the AK spot nothing wrong with your thought process . The key data point is the big stack is live.

On the bubble at your stack depth we can also play AKoff like a drawing hand and flat the raise some % of the time. We know we are dominating all AX and KX hands that we can get max value from at 20bb's post flop and it allows us to get away from the hand if we flop nothing. Had the V stacks been similar in sizes our success frequency in getting folds increases so we would flat much less often but in a freeroll-players love to call-with one stack being so large we can play to protect our min cash

So yes we can shove but yes we can also flat this exact spot and retain a very playable stack size and min cash🤑

Precisely!! Thank you for your feedback eetenor!
I decided to go ahead because it was a freeroll, the guy was quite active, calling too much raises, so I imagined I would receive a call from dominated hands a lot of times.