$1.20 NLHE STT: Good/Bad steal attempts

[Clambake420]

Are these following hand examples bad shoves or good shoves in attempt to steal blinds. I don't have a huge read on the players in the blinds, i just knew they weren't going to call off their stack lightly.

HAND 1
pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.2 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t1887)
UTG (t2000)
MP (t3400)
Button (t5103)
Hero (SB) (t1110)

Hero's M: 4.93

Preflop: Hero is SB with

,

3 folds, Hero bets t1110 (All-In)

HAND 2
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.2 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t702)
UTG (t2075)
MP (t3925)
Button (t5003)
Hero (SB) (t1795)

Hero's M: 5.98

Preflop: Hero is SB with

,

3 folds, Hero bets t1795 (All-In)

HAND 3
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.2 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t1404)
BB (t2075)
UTG (t3925)
MP (t5003)
Hero (Button) (t1093)

Hero's M: 3.64

Preflop: Hero is Button with

,

2 folds, Hero bets t1093 (All-In)

 

[Jillychemung]

I don't have any problems with any of these 3.

 

[medeiros13]

I slightly disagree with Jilly. I don't like stealing with J6 suited but the other two are certainly reasonable. I recall reading awhile back (I forget where) that the average hand is Q8; so that's the standard I use when deciding whether to steal or not (with no reads anyway)

 

[cjatud2012]

it'd be pretty criminal to fold any of these imo, especially the first two. In a bvb situation with less than 10bb's, your first instinct should be to push any two cards. Make sure before you shove that they aren't calling super wide, but yeah, generally I'm looking to shove any two cards.

I slightly disagree with Jilly. I don't like stealing with J6 suited but the other two are certainly reasonable. I recall reading awhile back (I forget where) that the average hand is Q8; so that's the standard I use when deciding whether to steal or not (with no reads anyway)

I understand why you would think that, but I think maybe you underestimate how important the equity is that we gain from taking down the blinds. If we're only getting called like 25% of the time (just a trivial approximation, and 1/3 of that 25% we're doubling up, the other 2/3 we're getting knocked out, the long term increase in equity is too great to shove. Also, Q8 is an average hand against a random range, not a narrowed range.

25%:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.865% 33.73% 01.14% 2092987752 70506588.00 { Q8o }
Hand 1: 65.135% 64.00% 01.14% 3971388768 70506588.00 { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }

15%:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.747% 30.03% 00.72% 1110559992 26655018.00 { Q8o }
Hand 1: 69.253% 68.53% 00.72% 2534706612 26655018.00 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }

 

[Jillychemung]

In hand 1, if the BB had a stack more like the BTN's stack I'd think a bit more before deciding to shove but I'd probably shove anyway.

The bigger question may be how you got yourself into these low M situations, might there have been some earlier spots that you missed?

 

[Clambake420]

^^complete and utter card dead. I woke up with KK several hands before this on the btn with about the same stack and decided the best move i had was to shove since my stack was around 10bb. But couldn't get any callers. other then that i just could not get a hand to play. So that's why my stack is sitting where its at.

 

[WiZZiM]

There's usually 3 general ranges i refer to in spots like this.

100% for randoms.

65% for good/bad loose players. (Nash range)

Fold.

 

[ManicLombax]

I agree the J6s hand is a shove. Pretty much the ideal situation for shoving marginal hands here: blind v. blind with the BB the second shortest stack. He's probably not going to want to call wide, since he's hoping you'll bust out before him. Then even if you get called, you're only a huge underdog to JJ+. Even if you're dominated you're only a 2:1 underdog. If you've got 2 live cards you're about 40% to win. Pretty much justifies shoving any two, though I personally would still fold absolute trash.

 

[Clambake420]

I agree the J6s hand is a shove. Pretty much the ideal situation for shoving marginal hands here: blind v. blind with the BB the second shortest stack. He's probably not going to want to call wide, since he's hoping you'll bust out before him. Then even if you get called, you're only a huge underdog to JJ+. Even if you're dominated you're only a 2:1 underdog. If you've got 2 live cards you're about 40% to win. Pretty much justifies shoving any two, though I personally would still fold absolute trash.

yea i definitely like to fold trash in these situations just so he does not start calling me wide. I want him to know im still being selective with my shoving range. Plus i dont want to be caught shoving 73o...haha.

 

[WiZZiM]

I reckon you'd all be suprised at how often/wide we have to shove in SNGs. And it's more fun trying to win with 73o anyway.

 

[Rldetheflop]

jamming all these for sure.