$1.20 NLHE Rebuy: $$1.20 NLHE Rebuy: Scary flop with Kings

[arahel_jazz]

$1.20 NL HE Rebuy: $$1.20 NL HE Rebuy: Scary flop with Kings

UTG+1 had been min-raising just about everything. I'm in the cutoff. Still a ways to go to the money (about 200).

Stacks:
* MP1 with 6250
* MP2 with 3555
* CO with 7460
* BTN with 15970
* SB with 9475
* BB with 7995
* UTG with 28795
* UTG+1 with 5585

Blinds:
Site: full tilt poker
* * Dealt to CO:K♣ K♥
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * 1 players fold.
* * UTG+1 raises to 480
* * 3 players fold.
* * Hero raises to 1,200
* * 2 players fold.
* * BB calls [960]
* * UTG+1 calls [720]
* * Total folds this street: 6
* * Potsize: 3720
Flop:
* * 9♠ J♥ J♣
* * BB checks
* * UTG+1 bets [4,360, and is all in]

Hero????

A call could easily be run over by big blind...
A call could easily leave me crippled if the idiot is holding any Jack...
A call could easily have me in fine shape...

What to do?

Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum

 

[Zorba]

Better you than me Jazz, have you any reads on the villain.

 

[cjatud2012]

I think I'd call even if we are past the rebuy period, Jx/ is such a small part of his range here, based on combinatorics and his line (he probably wouldn't play 99/AA this way either). Sounds like he is a real drooler, he might be pushing any pocket pair or just going nuts with something like AK. And just being picky, I might 3-bet a little larger.

 

[BYucko]

Depending on the read on villain, I would either fold or shove.

If the player seems tight/cautious postflop it really looks like he is shoving for value. The pot is 3720 and he bets 4360 into it because holding Jx, he can't really make a standard bet like 1/2 pot (1660) because he will go into the turn with at most 2700 with a pot at least 7040 putting him AI anyway. In this case it is a disgusting fold.

Alternatively if he is loose or hints of desperation it is a shove. On the flop his M is 12.1 and given the big stacks at the table he pretty much has to accumulate way more chips. BB checks so it seems probable that he folds to a shove, so UTG+1 counts on you to be raising with AK/AQ and fold. You shove, BB folds, you see a 9x and fistpump your 80-90%.
Or if BB calls, cry that he checked his J.

 

[tomh7795]

I assume it's not the rebuy period. That's a tough spot. I think we need stats and reads to answer this question. To tough for me to say. If he's raising everyhand then I'm going all in here. I think there's bluffs, few draws and a small chance of a j in his range here. I would call here for sure.

 

[arahel_jazz]

Hand was out of the rebuy period. Like I mentioned, we were about 200 to go to the money.

Unfortunately, I don't have any statistical helpers. Had to fly this one blind. Yes, the villian had been raising a bit more than typical and playing more hands than what I would consider normal.

However, based on the fact that he min-raised UTG, I put a Jack in his range.


Both me and the BB folded to him.


It's OK, though. I ended up taking 6th overall for a nice cash.