$1.10 NLHE MTT Rebuy: Overpair; what to do on turn after villain calls flop raise

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darklighter13

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
May 30, 2009
Total posts
3
Chips
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About 2 hours into the tournament and 1 hour after the rebuy. I had no read on villain.

By the way, anyone know a good hand history converter for Carbon? I had to clean this up quite a bit to make it postable.

Table and Position Review
Game #69128998-95: PM #1 $5K Gtd - [R%2F1A] - No Limit Holdem Tournament - 250.00/250.00

Hero (UTG), $15458.00
UTG+1, $14979.00
UTG+2, $11382.00
UTG+3, $16613.00
UTG+4, $9632.00
C/O, $10574.00
Button, $6806.00
SB, $18317.00
Villain (BB), $8780.00

*** Blinds ***
SB posts the small blind of 250.00
Villain posts the big blind of 250.00

*** Pre-Flop ***
Hero got hole cards [ :js4: :jc4: ]
Hero raises with 650.00
UTG+1 folds
UTG+2 folds
UTG+3 folds
UTG+4 folds
C/O folds
Button folds
SB calls 400.00
Villain calls 400.00

*** Flop *** Pot: 1950

[ :8c4: :6c4: :4h4: ]

SB checks
Villain bets 1200.00
Hero raises with 3000.00
SB folds
Villain calls 1800.00

*** Turn *** Pot: 7950

[ :8c4: :6c4: :4h4: ] [ :9d4: ]

Villain checks
Hero ???
 
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DrSparky

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 26, 2013
Total posts
108
Chips
0
Given the size of the pot, the villains remaining stack and the wetness of the board I think in the heat of the moment I would have reluctantly checked this board...

To expand - the villain is more or less pot committed and with the size of the pot I don't think he's ever letting this go therefore we have minimal fold equity. The pot equity isn't great either, if he's calling you with the top 5% of hands (88+,AJs+,KQs,AKo) after the turn it's around a 50:50 split, if we up that to 10% (77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo) it 67:33 in your favor. The nice thing is, if we assume that he would re-bet into you with the 5%, but give him a 10% total range your equity improves dramatically (77,ATs-A9s,KJs-KTs,QTs+,AQo-ATo,KQo) 84:16 in your favor...

The thing that would really suck is if another spade or dangerous straight card fell and the villain bet out at the pot (probably an all-in shove) I'd probably have to let it go, which would be really hard. However, it would be harder having put more in on the turn and hence I'm checking this turn as I don't think the villain will fold.

Please do bear in mind I've only been playing seriously for around 3 months so someone with some more experience may need to chip in here...
 
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