$1.10 NLHE MTT Bounty: AA on bubble, River all in. Would you call?

[gimka2L]

Interesting hand at the bubble of a 1.10$ PKO MTT 167 paid at 180ish players.
I want your opinion, ignoring the buyin, would you play the same as I did.


pokerstars, $0.98 + $0.12 - Hold'em No Limit - 200/400 (50 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 4,170 (10 bb)
UTG+1: 5,392 (13 bb)
MP (Hero): 15,410 (39 bb)
MP+1: 6,009 (15 bb)
LP: 3,851 (10 bb)
CO: 8,993 (22 bb)
BU: 15,779 (39 bb)
SB: 15,298 (38 bb)
BB: 10,037 (25 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,050) Hero is MP with A♣ A♠
2 players fold, Hero raises to 840, 3 players fold, BTN calls 840, 2 players fold

Flop: (2,730) 5♦ 7♣ 3♣ (2 players)
Hero bets 1,529, BTN calls 1,529

Turn: (5,788) 8♦ (2 players)
Hero bets 2,400, BTN calls 2,400

River: (10,588) J♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 10,960 (all-in), Around 29bb (390 chips more than me)

Thinking alot through timebank, I decided to call
Hero calls 10,591 (all-in)

With what hands do you call here and what do think the Villain has?

BTN Hand

Spoiler

BTN shows

 

[hobojim1247]

To me it would be an easy call although I would have been AI on the flop. If I run into a set or 2 pair, then O well.... it wouldn't be the first time, nor the last time that happens..

Jim

 

[daniel888]

You are pot committed, no way you can't fold AA in this situation. This board is not very dangerous, AA is a very strong hand to commit here. If you fold AA, that means you fold too much.

 

[caracaski220]

caracski220

As we are nearing the bubble, I would not have waited for the river. I would have gone all-in on the flop. If the villain wants to gamble so be it. I want to chip up and get to a better position. I also don't want him to back into some hand. Or have me in a position of calling an all-in.

 

[Endwarfin]

Pre-Flop: (1,050) Hero is MP with A♣ A♠
2 players fold, Hero raises to 840, 3 players fold, BTN calls 840, 2 players fold

The button calling a small open and pricing in the big blind leads me to remove hands like AKs KK KQs QQ, it puts in a lot of Ks3s and suited connector type hands.

Flop: (2,730) 5♦ 7♣ 3♣(2 players)
Hero bets 1,529, BTN calls 1,529

On the flop, we have the A♣, we can remove all Ax of clubs from his range.
I 100% continue here, 1/2 pot is a good sized bet, I like upping it a little more (like you did) to charge the draws that will call and this is a board that should get a lot of callers. (all pocket pairs 3s+ will call with lots draws)

Turn: (5,788) 8♦(2 players)

Hero bets 2,400, BTN calls 2,400

On the Turn, I think your bet is the right size. The 8 diamond actually improves almost all of the hands that called us (by A Lot in equity terms) except 44, 1010+, and weird K<10s of clubs. If we bet too much more, I'd be worried about only getting called by hands with more than 50% equity against us.

River: (10,588) J♥(2 players)Hero checks, BTN bets 10,960 (all-in), Around 29bb (390 chips more than me)

The river is not exactly a brick, but one of our better run outs. We could bet here, I'd sometimes bet 1/3 pot, the problem is our hand is only a bluff catcher now.

Kings QQ 11 99 will check back. 1 pair and draws might also check back because clubs missed.

The only hands I could see betting as a bluff are KMiss of clubs. KJ QJ 10J of clubs might check, might target light value.

When opponent goes all in on the river, the only hands I think we beat are missed KX clubs with no pair. Everything else is two pair or better.

This is the bubble, we block the nut draw continue bluffs, and we are reaching if we expect KJ/QJ/J10 of clubs to shove the river.


Sadly I think we should fold the river.


Villain can easily get here with something as stupid as



Odd that I have a green club and a black club up in here.


















Edit*: To me this smells like Pocket Jacks. Call Call with an overpair, Rivered a set. Obvious draws missed, and you look like you can call.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Like this open size with so many short stacks behind. We want to make it look they, they have fold equity, if they move in on us, so definitely dont want to go to big.

Flop
People love calling on BTN with small to medium pairs and cute suited connectors, and all those hands absolutely love this board. We on the other hand almost never connected with this board, and we are out of position. So in general this is a spot, where we need to play very defensively, and I strongly lean towards checking to control the size of the pot and keep his bluffing range alive. If we bet out, and especially with a large sizing like this, most of the hands, we are significantly ahead of, like his AJo or his KQs are just going to fold, and we are mainly getting action from hands, that already have us beat or have some sort of draw with a lot of equity. And even when he dont realise this equity, a lot of runouts are going to be very bad for us, so he might be able to bluff us out of the pot.

Turn
This was one of the better cards in the deck completing only 87s, so as played I guess, its ok to fire again.

River
Yet another decent card for you. T9 got there, but thats probably only going to be T9 of clubs or diamonds exactly, so only 2 combos. Even so I dont see to many worse hands, that will call yet another bet and certainly not a jam for full pot. And there are a lot of busted draw, so I am on board with check-calling here, even though you clearly only beat a bluff. It is player dependent though, because for this to be a profitable call you need an opponent, who is able to pull the trigger on a big bluff near the bubble. Its also not good to have Ac in your hand, because it removes a lot of the busted flushdraws from his range, so check-folding would not have been crazy either as played.

 

[gimka2L]

The button calling a small open and pricing in the big blind leads me to remove hands like AKs KK KQs QQ, it puts in a lot of Ks3s and suited connector type hands.



On the flop, we have the A♣, we can remove all Ax of clubs from his range.
I 100% continue here, 1/2 pot is a good sized bet, I like upping it a little more (like you did) to charge the draws that will call and this is a board that should get a lot of callers. (all pocket pairs 3s+ will call with lots draws)









On the Turn, I think your bet is the right size. The 8 diamond actually improves almost all of the hands that called us (by A Lot in equity terms) except 44, 1010+, and weird K<10s of clubs. If we bet too much more, I'd be worried about only getting called by hands with more than 50% equity against us.


The river is not exactly a brick, but one of our better run outs. We could bet here, I'd sometimes bet 1/3 pot, the problem is our hand is only a bluff catcher now.

Kings QQ 11 99 will check back. 1 pair and draws might also check back because clubs missed.

The only hands I could see betting as a bluff are KMiss of clubs. KJ QJ 10J of clubs might check, might target light value.

When opponent goes all in on the river, the only hands I think we beat are missed KX clubs with no pair. Everything else is two pair or better.

This is the bubble, we block the nut draw continue bluffs, and we are reaching if we expect KJ/QJ/J10 of clubs to shove the river.


Sadly I think we should fold the river.


Villain can easily get here with something as stupid as



Odd that I have a green club and a black club up in here.


















Edit*: To me this smells like Pocket Jacks. Call Call with an overpair, Rivered a set. Obvious draws missed, and you look like you can call.

Thanks for the detailed run-through!

 

[gimka2L]

Preflop
Like this open size with so many short stacks behind. We want to make it look they, they have fold equity, if they move in on us, so definitely dont want to go to big.

Flop
People love calling on BTN with small to medium pairs and cute suited connectors, and all those hands absolutely love this board. We on the other hand almost never connected with this board, and we are out of position. So in general this is a spot, where we need to play very defensively, and I strongly lean towards checking to control the size of the pot and keep his bluffing range alive. If we bet out, and especially with a large sizing like this, most of the hands, we are significantly ahead of, like his AJo or his KQs are just going to fold, and we are mainly getting action from hands, that already have us beat or have some sort of draw with a lot of equity. And even when he dont realise this equity, a lot of runouts are going to be very bad for us, so he might be able to bluff us out of the pot.

Turn
This was one of the better cards in the deck completing only 87s, so as played I guess, its ok to fire again.

River
Yet another decent card for you. T9 got there, but thats probably only going to be T9 of clubs or diamonds exactly, so only 2 combos. Even so I dont see to many worse hands, that will call yet another bet and certainly not a jam for full pot. And there are a lot of busted draw, so I am on board with check-calling here, even though you clearly only beat a bluff. It is player dependent though, because for this to be a profitable call you need an opponent, who is able to pull the trigger on a big bluff near the bubble. Its also not good to have Ac in your hand, because it removes a lot of the busted flushdraws from his range, so check-folding would not have been crazy either as played.

Thanks for the reply!
After the hand the player did put in chat ''nice bluff'' and I agreed with him that he found the guts to do that.