$1.10 NLHE MTT Bounty: 3 Way Pot For The Massive Chip Lead.Do I Have Fold Here?

[akmost]

PokerStars - 900/1800 Ante 270 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+2: 99.61 BB (VPIP: 24.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, hands: 25)
CO: 46.96 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (BTN): 58.29 BB
SB: 60.2 BB (VPIP: 35.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 20)
BB: 45.79 BB (VPIP: 5.00, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
UTG: 43.62 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)
UTG+1: 51.71 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
MP: 28.29 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
MP+1: 15.65 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)

9 players post ante of 0.15 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.85 BB) Hero has 4♥ A♥

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB, SB calls 2 BB, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (13.85 BB, 5 players) 3♥ 6♠ 9♥
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets 10.39 BB, fold, Hero calls 10.39 BB, SB raises to 57.55 BB and is all-in, fold, UTG calls 30.58 BB and is all-in, Hero?

Spoiler

calls 45.26 BB and is all-in

Turn: (166.11 BB, 3 players) 5♦

River: (166.11 BB, 3 players) 4♦

SB shows 6♦ 9♦ (Two Pair, Nines and Sixes)

Main Pot [136.76 BB]: (Pre 19%, Flop 49%, Turn 52%)
Side Pot#1 [29.35 BB]: (Pre 45%, Flop 68%, Turn 69%)

Hero shows 4♥ A♥ (One Pair, Fours)

Main Pot [136.76 BB]: (Pre 29%, Flop 32%, Turn 31%)
Side Pot#1 [29.35 BB]: (Pre 55%, Flop 32%, Turn 31%)

UTG shows T♥ T♣ (One Pair, Tens)

Main Pot [136.76 BB]: (Pre 53%, Flop 19%, Turn 17%)

SB wins 166.11 BB

Field: 4267
Remaining ~280 , ITM , The 2 other players had bounty $1.60 each.

I am calling here everyday although it would be more preferable to have 2 over cards instead of 1. Just want to read your thoughts guys.
Do you take such marginal risks? I think is essential for a deep run!

Thank you in advance!

 

[Matt Vaughan]

I'd be sometimes 3betting pre but I don't hate flatting when we have the BTN, particularly vs UTG and since the blinds sometimes come along and we may get to cooler them on certain runouts where they make underflushes.

I'd be raising the flop a very high percentage of the time as played. We can have all the sets where villain may only have top set. We have more draws than him but a lot of them are very nutted so imo it's fine to be raising here. It's nice to block aces and also have backdoor straight draws too.

Flatting isn't "bad" since he IS cbetting into 3 opponents, and I think he's a little more likely to have value than not, but sometimes we get to put it in vs like the KQhh or KJhh that he might overplay. Which is definitely pretty cool. AND we have 45% equity against TT+, so we shouldn't really ever be worried here.

Okay as played we see a super awkward spot now where SB squeezes all in and UTG calls it all in. At this point, we're almost never ahead of both but we most likely have the equity to call it off here I guess?? Let's say SB is jamming 65hh, 76hh, 87hh, JThh, QJhh, KQhh, 33, 66, 99. I think that's a bit optimistic that he goes ham with the JT, QJ, and KQ, but whatever it's a reasonable guess since we're not giving him like KJ, KT, etc. We have about 41% equity vs that range, and note that we not only are putting 20bb into a main pot getting 4.1 to 1... we also have to put an additional 30bb into a side pot vs just the SB, which is LOSING money because we are getting 1 to 1 there. On average we will put in 30bb and only get back 41% of the 60bb side pot, so 24.6bb, which means we lose about 5.4bb in the side pot.

But if we can win more than that by putting the 20bb into the side pot, then it might still be profitable. Against the SB range we have 41% but we need to look at our equity vs SB AND UTG ranges. Let's say UTG has an absolute worst case scenario range of like 66, 99, and AA (this is unrealistic but it doesn't tweak the equity that much). Against the two ranges we have 27-30% equity even if we adjust the UTG range a bit to include strong FD's but also more overpairs.

We have to put in 20bb into the main pot, which will be 104bb after we do, and we will have between 27-30% equity, so we'll get back 28 - 31bb. So we'll profit 8 - 11bb from the main pot. Total profit in the neighborhood of 3 - 5bb, which is usually a bit too much to pass up, though at this stack depth it always sucks a bit having to punt it in on a spot like this.

As you say, there are still 280 people, you're already in the money so no ICM considerations. We add about 8-10% to our stack on average every time we get to run this situation - I think this is a pretty clear one to take.

In-game I'd CONSIDER folding due to my expected edge on the field at this stack depth being quite large, but I probably ultimately go with it even without all this analysis. Also note that if we don't have the NUT flush draw we're snap folding. We perform too poorly vs the NFD if we ourselves only have the King high draw.

 

[akmost]

I'd be sometimes 3betting pre but I don't hate flatting when we have the BTN, particularly vs UTG and since the blinds sometimes come along and we may get to cooler them on certain runouts where they make underflushes.

I'd be raising the flop a very high percentage of the time as played. We can have all the sets where villain may only have top set. We have more draws than him but a lot of them are very nutted so imo it's fine to be raising here. It's nice to block aces and also have backdoor straight draws too.

Flatting isn't "bad" since he IS cbetting into 3 opponents, and I think he's a little more likely to have value than not, but sometimes we get to put it in vs like the KQhh or KJhh that he might overplay. Which is definitely pretty cool. AND we have 45% equity against TT+, so we shouldn't really ever be worried here.

Okay as played we see a super awkward spot now where SB squeezes all in and UTG calls it all in. At this point, we're almost never ahead of both but we most likely have the equity to call it off here I guess?? Let's say SB is jamming 65hh, 76hh, 87hh, JThh, QJhh, KQhh, 33, 66, 99. I think that's a bit optimistic that he goes ham with the JT, QJ, and KQ, but whatever it's a reasonable guess since we're not giving him like KJ, KT, etc. We have about 41% equity vs that range, and note that we not only are putting 20bb into a main pot getting 4.1 to 1... we also have to put an additional 30bb into a side pot vs just the SB, which is LOSING money because we are getting 1 to 1 there. On average we will put in 30bb and only get back 41% of the 60bb side pot, so 24.6bb, which means we lose about 5.4bb in the side pot.

But if we can win more than that by putting the 20bb into the side pot, then it might still be profitable. Against the SB range we have 41% but we need to look at our equity vs SB AND UTG ranges. Let's say UTG has an absolute worst case scenario range of like 66, 99, and AA (this is unrealistic but it doesn't tweak the equity that much). Against the two ranges we have 27-30% equity even if we adjust the UTG range a bit to include strong FD's but also more overpairs.

We have to put in 20bb into the main pot, which will be 104bb after we do, and we will have between 27-30% equity, so we'll get back 28 - 31bb. So we'll profit 8 - 11bb from the main pot. Total profit in the neighborhood of 3 - 5bb, which is usually a bit too much to pass up, though at this stack depth it always sucks a bit having to punt it in on a spot like this.

As you say, there are still 280 people, you're already in the money so no ICM considerations. We add about 8-10% to our stack on average every time we get to run this situation - I think this is a pretty clear one to take.

In-game I'd CONSIDER folding due to my expected edge on the field at this stack depth being quite large, but I probably ultimately go with it even without all this analysis. Also note that if we don't have the NUT flush draw we're snap folding. We perform too poorly vs the NFD if we ourselves only have the King high draw.

Matt thank you so much for your in-depth analysis , I feel like you liked so much the spot and you explained it so detailed to me , lucky me ha ha.

Thank you for the concept that you are bringing on here , raise the initial's opener cbet in position! We can represent so many combinations by doing this move. It is something I wanted to include in my game against strong opponents.

I like the fact that you commented it so seriously like it was a way bigger buy in ,basically you always do that! This approach can be adapted in higher stakes though! I have read the post many times , so informative!

I appreciate it

 

[j4fun]

Hi,

Matt has explained beautifully. I would just like to add another reason to fold.

Even though we do have some equity, whatever we win is giving us chips but not a significant pay jump I guess. But, when we loose, it is our tourney life. Hence, a fold.

 

[TheBigFinn]

Scourrge pretty much nailed it. I'd suggest the highest EV play is jamming UTG's raise. Hero is at least calling and after Hero's call there are ~34BBs in the pot and Hero has 44BB behind. Hero has ~40% equity against 2 or 3 players assuming no one hit trips. UTG is most likely to have overcards to justify her open UTG. Assuming she has AK, , AQ, AA, KK, QQ, or JJ, Hero has 12 outs and 40% equity.

UTG Villain has 30BBs behind and might fold, but is likely calling with big pairs and K high flush draws if it is folded to her. She gets even better odds if SB Villain calls. The bad news is SB Villain is only calling with made hands, IMHO. So there are 4 out comes.

Everyone folds and Hero wins 24 BB
Everyone else folds and UTG calls with a big pair Hero wins 40% of 118 BB and is busted 60% of the time

Everyone else folds and UTG or SB also calls and one has a set Hero wins 15% of 118 BB (or 174) and is busted 85% of the time
SB & UTG call without a set and Hero wins 40% of 174 BB and is busted 40% of the time
If Hero folds he has 56BB

Lets assume they fold 10% there is a set 10% and both call 80%
.1*.4*118 + .1*.15*(118+174)/2 + .8 * 174 = 5+3+139 = 147 BB.

Not as elegant as Scourrge's analysis and even perhaps faulty, but I'm jamming. then folding and then calling.

Just looked at the reveal. Nailed the TT for UTG, but in my analysis I didn't give SB as wide a range as she had. Makes the Jam all the better a play against the wider range, in spite of losing to the actual hands.