$1.10 NL HE MTT: Facing an all-in bet under ICM pressure (Final table)

[DegenerateSheep]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

1.10

Currency

$

Managed to FT the morning schedule big 1.10$ today, and currently 5/7, table is quite agressive especially the top 3.

Manage to pick up AA, do a 3-bet in position, followed by a large flop bet, which I believe are standard. On the turn I was not sure whether to jam or not, but considering I'm against someone who covers me I decided to take the check-back route, planning to call any safe river. Did not expect to get jammed on however, and I am not sure whether I made the right decision here.

pokerstars - 2500/5000 Ante 625 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

Hero (BTN): 240,624 (48.1 bb)
SB: 359,749 (71.9 bb)
BB: 365,429 (73.1 bb)
UTG: 308,593 (61.7 bb)
UTG+1: 134,375 (26.9 bb)
MP: 77,596 (15.5 bb)
CO: 913,634 (182.7 bb)

7 players post ante of 625, SB posts 2,500, BB posts 5,000

Pre Flop: (pot: 11,875) Hero has
3 folds, CO raises to 10,000, Hero raises to 30,000, 2 folds, CO calls 20,000

Flop: (71,875, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets 53,906, CO calls 53,906

Turn: (179,687, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: (179,687, 2 players)
CO bets 197,656, Hero ?

Spoiler: Spoiler

Hero calls 156,093 and is all-in

Results: 491,873 pot (0 rake)
Final Board:

CO shows : (Straight, Eight High)
(Pre 19%, Flop 32%, Turn 80%)
Hero shows : (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 81%, Flop 68%, Turn 20%)

CO wins 491,873

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Obviously fine to 3-bet, and 3X is not a bad sizing. But when he only min-raise, and everyone left are so deep, I would lean towards making it a bit larger. He has a massive chip lead, so I dought, there is much difference between the range, he continue with, if you make it 7BB or 8BB instead of just 6BB.

Flop
Here I would think about, if I wanted to make it a 2-street or 3-street hand. If the plan is 2 streets, then the flop bet should be even larger, so that a turn jam is not an overbet. But more realistically, when you go so small preflop, the plan is going to be a 3-street hand. And then you should go smaller, so that all bets can be about the same size relative to the pot. It makes no sense to go very large on the flop and then much smaller on turn or river.

Turn
Not the best card, although it helps to have Ah in your hand, because it reduce the risk, he just made a flush, and if you are behind, you now have a flushdraw. So I am ok modifying the plan and checking behind here.

River
Tough spot. Reads matter here, but in general I would lean towards a call, because you have that nut flush blocker. I will not assume, a massive chip leader can never have a bluff or overplay something. So you need to find some hands to call with, and AA with Ah is better than other AA combos.

Results
So he had the sort of hidden dubble gutter on the flop, and he even had the offsuit variety. That obviously sucks. But if he is this loose preflop, can he then not have some other hands as well, that missed, and that he will turn into a bluff, when you slow down and check the turn? I think so, and therefore I would not beat myself up over this one. But if the next two payjumps were very important to you, it would also have been ok to give him credit and fold to that river jam.

 

[fundiver199]

I missed the fact, Hero was the effective stack, and going to the turn he only had around 160k left. In that case I think, the flop sizing and making it a 2 street hand is fine.

 

[DegenerateSheep]

I missed the fact, Hero was the effective stack, and going to the turn he only had around 160k left. In that case I think, the flop sizing and making it a 2 street hand is fine.

Reflecting on that I still consider my sizing to be wrong because I get this very awkward pot-sized bet.

1) If I bet like 6-8bb on the flop, and follow my check-back line, his jam would allow me to fold more easily as it would be a 1.3x overbet
2) If I bet 12-14bb, a turn-jam from me feels more natural ( the potsized bet that I had left made this awkward and swayed me towards a check-back), and if I do a check-back, making the call is easier as well, as now his jam would be a 66-75% pot bet.

Maybe it's just a set up, but the sizing feels off to me in retrospect

Thank you for your review!

 

[Navin Sarabjeet]

This is a situation to think about

 

[300HPGOD]

Being at the final table makes this a more interesting spot due to more ICM with the payjumps. However, I think when we get AA, receive action from the chip leader, and start with less than 50 BBs we should not be looking to fold too often unless the runout really blows.

Pre: I like 3.5x here instead of 3x. I also think 4x works as we are dealing with the chip leader who is probably running losse right now and trying to be boss at the table. That means they will have air a lot and fold (meaning going 3x vs 3.5x will likely not generate more calls) and if they have the table captain mentality then they will call off more anyway and going a little bigger gets more now. No chance either of a light 4 bet from the blinds due to final table and the chip leader opening. If you think CO could light 4 bet here if you go small then I am onboard with it but I doubt that in a low stakes tourney.

Flop: In game I would just be going for value here and go less. I want them to stay in the hand and it helps drastically that we have the Ace of hearts. I dont like your sizing initially but then when it gets called I love it lol. We cant look at it that way but I would bet here an amount that I think some random floats could still float and would be thinking they dont have a ton of two hearts hands so probably 40-45% pot would be my sizing.

Turn: As played I think there are two ways to go here and that would be to check or to jam... but both would be for the same reason. I would not be checking here because the heart scared me or that I am scared of a set, two pair, straight (which is crazy that was the outcome) but would be checking if I think villain is the type that if I check this turn and feign weakness that they will lead river every time and I can get it in then and they will have some price to call it off. If I dont think villain is that type then our flop sizing perfectly setup the turn jam (not sure if that was the intention or not with that sizing) and we should just get it in here. It comes down to what you think villain is more likely to call of/course of action they would do. If you think they can call it off here then go for it but if you think they will be agg when checked to on turn then checking to induce is not a bad play. Then add in the fact that we are not worried about the free card (minus the potential straight cards) since we have the nut flush draw.

River: I said above that I would only be checking the turn to induce some river bet and we got it. Given its final table with ICM and the villain is the massive chip leader I think there are plenty of bluffs and Kx hands that really think they are ahead here and just jam into us for max pressure. Right or wrong my thinking could be here since lately things arent going well and I have been wrong way more than right, I would be snap calling here. Again, I would have checked turn to induce here (if I would have checked at all as stated above) and I got it so I would have no intention of folding. We could be beat by random K10 or other two pairs (would never have thought this villain could actually have 87 here) but I think there are plenty of bluffs and plays by villain to put max pressure on us and I think AA is too good to fold based on what we have left.

 

[fundiver199]

However, I think when we get AA, receive action from the chip leader, and start with less than 50 BBs we should not be looking to fold too often unless the runout really blows.

With a stack to pot ratio of around 3 we should generally not be looking to fold AA, unless the runout is absolutely terrible like 4 to a straight or flush. This board was somewhat in between. Not the worst but certainly also not the best. Its not so much, that there ended up being 3 hearts on the table, especially not when we have Ah blocking a decent amount of the flush combos. Its more that top pair changed on the river making it unlikely, the opponent might jam a worse hand for value.

For the opponent to end up with top pair, they would have needed to call a big bet on the flop out of position with just overcards. Not even a BDFD was possible, since it was Ks, that came on the river. So they kind of never have that, and if they have hands like AT or JJ-QQ, which we beat, are they really jamming the river, considering that we have a lot of hands like AK in our range, that just got there? Probably not, so because the board ran out 64T-5-K as opposed to 64K-5-T or 64T-5-4, they dont really have any value jams, that we beat, which mean, we are purely bluff catching.

Which still dont mean, we should fold. But it does at least make it a lot closer, and against some more nitty opponents, maybe we can actually get away from the aces here. However seeing that the opponent called a 3-bet out of position with 87 offsuit, this is not the kind of opponent, where I would have regrets after calling and losing.