$0.55 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked Turbo Rebuy: Fold or Call 02 Turbo10?

theANMATOR

theANMATOR

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2nd Hand analysis from previous post.

Daily Turbo10
0.55 buyin on ACR

This is a fast paced event that requires a LAG approach to min-cash and a LAG+luck approach to final table. The blind structure is quite fast - not 100% sure but I think it is 12 levels of 5 minute blinds before late registration closes.
A lot of allin preflop action throughout - but this aggressive action is amplified pre-money bubble, directly post-money bubble, pre-FT and FT the game play is mostly all-in preflop.
So - kind of normal. :)

10k starting stack

Currently sitting at about 65k in chips.
Chip average is approximately 54k.
8 spots away from min-cash ITM - so it could happen within the next 1-5 hands. Rarely does this event go more than 1 orbit with less than 10 places to hit ITM.
Blinds roughly 1.5k/3k

I 2.5x open (my standard open for ALL hands) from MP1 with pocket Tens.

Bttn shoves for almost my effective stack. I think he had roughly 1600 chips less than me, BB also calls with about 12.5k in chips. Less than 10bb.

I have zero additional information on Bttn player, no notes, no tendencies -

Call or Fold?
 
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fundiver199

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This one is pretty close, and I am not sure, what an ICM-program would suggest. Its good, that you did not open in early position, and TT is certainly ahead of some hands, that might jam here as a bluff. Like suited wheel aces or even some smaller pairs. It is however bad, that you are both above average stacks, and its for 20+ blinds.

Even so I think, I would make this call. Its a 0,55$ turbo, so many players are probably jamming to wide, and if I lose, it does not break the bank to play another one. Also a min-cash is almost pointless, so if I play something like this, I want to go for top 3.
 
theANMATOR

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Thanks gents. I know - total toss up. I'd normally call here and chalk up the loss to just a flip/luck however I didn't have a solid read on opponent and I have been on a string of running TERRIBLE with flips for nearly one entire month, which has reduced my BR by over 50%.

I ended up folding in this spot this time. I just knew Bttn was going to show up with a smaller pocket pair or A/x and suckout on me - because of my recent run bad in flips. I know terrible reasoning - but when the flips go against you so frequently - it kind of gets in your head a bit.

Grrr!! Gotta toughen up! :)

Also - after the very next hand money bubble busted, so I would have min-cashed with like 500 chips left - even if I lost that flip. :)

Ended up busting out near final table with KKs that were out drawn by A/Q.
 
Jon Poker

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Thanks gents. I know - total toss up. I'd normally call here and chalk up the loss to just a flip/luck however I didn't have a solid read on opponent and I have been on a string of running TERRIBLE with flips for nearly one entire month, which has reduced my BR by over 50%.

I ended up folding in this spot this time. I just knew Bttn was going to show up with a smaller pocket pair or A/x and suckout on me - because of my recent run bad in flips. I know terrible reasoning - but when the flips go against you so frequently - it kind of gets in your head a bit.

Grrr!! Gotta toughen up! :)

Also - after the very next hand money bubble busted, so I would have min-cashed with like 500 chips left - even if I lost that flip. :)

Ended up busting out near final table with KKs that were out drawn by A/Q.


With effective stacks being so short I don't like the 2.5x open - I know .5bb isnt much but when things like this happen we are just burning chips unnecessarily. That being said - With the money bubble so close I think it's ok to fold the TTs here. I would run the spot in a program like Icmizer as fundiver said but I could see the fold in this spot whereas if this were mid game we should be snapping off in this spot as TT is generally just too strong to fold.

There's alot of contradictory comments and points of view in your analysis. Dont be so results oriented! Saying things like "I've been running so bad at flips" is just steering you away from making correct decisions! Treating this tournament as a "must play LAG" is also probably a little incorrect...just because the player pool is terrible doesnt mean we have to play terrible to beat them. If we lost the last 4 hands when we had KK...are we not supposed to play them the next time we get them? Dont let negative thinking and focus on the short term outcomes cloud your judgment in game.

I hope this helps! Congrats on the fold and making the $$. Some ROI is always better than zero ROI!
 
Ryan Laplante

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Depending on field size I'd often stack off here in a game like this.

Vs reasonable opponents on bubble though this is a fold.
 
theANMATOR

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With effective stacks being so short I don't like the 2.5x open - I know .5bb isnt much but when things like this happen we are just burning chips unnecessarily. That being said - With the money bubble so close I think it's ok to fold the TTs here. I would run the spot in a program like Icmizer as fundiver said but I could see the fold in this spot whereas if this were mid game we should be snapping off in this spot as TT is generally just too strong to fold.

There's alot of contradictory comments and points of view in your analysis. Dont be so results oriented! Saying things like "I've been running so bad at flips" is just steering you away from making correct decisions! Treating this tournament as a "must play LAG" is also probably a little incorrect...just because the player pool is terrible doesnt mean we have to play terrible to beat them. If we lost the last 4 hands when we had KK...are we not supposed to play them the next time we get them? Dont let negative thinking and focus on the short term outcomes cloud your judgment in game.

I hope this helps! Congrats on the fold and making the $$. Some ROI is always better than zero ROI!

Thanks Jon. Your point about min-raising is quite interesting. I think I'll do a couple trial runs on this to see how it goes.
I dislike the feeling of getting burned by allowing weaker hands in - with that bet size - and them drawing out on me, however in this situation, stack sizes, position of the event, and position on the table - I think your suggestion is strong. Thank you

Yes - I was just admitting to being a little gun shy lately - because of the frequent losses in flips I've received lately. I know your point well - I was just point out - this probably had an effect on my decision.

Re: must play LAG - I play this event daily and I'm pretty confident in my assessment of how 'best' to play this event, for me.
To clarify - what I really meant to say is - this tourney is fast paced and most players are aggressive. I've had the best results playing this event slightly loose early but mostly TAG, with a little luck thrown in.

I'm not saying most of the player pool is terrible. I'm just pointing out if your not getting in the pots and fighting - I doubt a player would even min-cash playing tight as 12-14% open - TAG approach would reach the money in this event. 100% confident in saying a passive and/or NIT strategy would blind out as soon as anties started to be meaningful.
I might be wrong though - you could try out a tighter approach to this tourney and see how it goes. :)


Depending on field size I'd often stack off here in a game like this.
Vs reasonable opponents on bubble though this is a fold.
Thanks for the reply Ryan. Field size is approximately 500 runners.
Unfortunately I had no prior knowledge on the opponent that shoved from the button.
What about vs an unknown on the bubble? When I ask that question the answer seems like an obvious fold.

If this was a 10k buy-in - is this a fold for you on the bubble? :eek::)
 
TheDude6622

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In this spot, being on the bubble and still having an above average stack if we fold here, it's a fold. It's a spot where in the best case scenario it's a flip or an under pair. There's a lot of people that fold aces in this spot. 10's are an easier fold, especially when you have no info on the player on the button.
 
TheDude6622

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Thanks Jon. Your point about min-raising is quite interesting. I think I'll do a couple trial runs on this to see how it goes.
I dislike the feeling of getting burned by allowing weaker hands in - with that bet size - and them drawing out on me, however in this situation, stack sizes, position of the event, and position on the table - I think your suggestion is strong. Thank you

Yes - I was just admitting to being a little gun shy lately - because of the frequent losses in flips I've received lately. I know your point well - I was just point out - this probably had an effect on my decision.

Re: must play LAG - I play this event daily and I'm pretty confident in my assessment of how 'best' to play this event, for me.
To clarify - what I really meant to say is - this tourney is fast paced and most players are aggressive. I've had the best results playing this event slightly loose early but mostly TAG, with a little luck thrown in.

I'm not saying most of the player pool is terrible. I'm just pointing out if your not getting in the pots and fighting - I doubt a player would even min-cash playing tight as 12-14% open - TAG approach would reach the money in this event. 100% confident in saying a passive and/or NIT strategy would blind out as soon as anties started to be meaningful.
I might be wrong though - you could try out a tighter approach to this tourney and see how it goes. :)



Thanks for the reply Ryan. Field size is approximately 500 runners.
Unfortunately I had no prior knowledge on the opponent that shoved from the button.
What about vs an unknown on the bubble? When I ask that question the answer seems like an obvious fold.

If this was a 10k buy-in - is this a fold for you on the bubble? :eek::)

Also, the 2.5 raise and keeping consistent with it is the best way to play in my opinion for a tournament. It really makes the other players guess what you're playing. Definitely a good bet and if you're faced with a decision like this one, you can get away more easily compared to having 5-8bb in the pot pre-flop.
 
theANMATOR

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Also, the 2.5 raise and keeping consistent with it is the best way to play in my opinion for a tournament. It really makes the other players guess what you're playing. Definitely a good bet and if you're faced with a decision like this one, you can get away more easily compared to having 5-8bb in the pot pre-flop.
Thanks for your input Dude. I keep consistent all my opens from all positions throughout a tournament, unless a situation calls for a different approach. I think you know what I mean here - as an example - If there is an obvious station to our left and he defends wide, it is not a terrible play to increase an open size to maximize value. Additionally when seated to the right of short stacks we can maximize fold equity when increasing opening sizes to put more pressure on those players - especially when pay jumps are looming. I do this quite selectively, but mostly stay consistent.

I do however think John made a great point here related to that exact position/situation. By utilizing a a min-raise with a strong but not premium holding in EP, we are attempting to get in cheap to see a flop, and not burn 2 additional bb by staying with our standard raise size if another player decides to shove over our open. We have a chance to even see the flop after a 3bet, if the 3bet is not for entire stacks.

With effective stacks being so short I don't like the 2.5x open - I know .5bb isnt much but when things like this happen we are just burning chips unnecessarily.

Treating this tournament as a "must play LAG" is also probably a little incorrect...just because the player pool is terrible doesnt mean we have to play terrible to beat them.

I hope this helps! Congrats on the fold and making the $$. Some ROI is always better than zero ROI!

Jon I did not get to utilize the mini-raise from EP yet but when the situation presents itself I'll relay how it went.

I ended up making FT yesterday - ended up going out in 9th defending bb when I hit top pair and took it to the river. Turns out Bttn had top pair as well - better kicker. Awesome! LOL
I wanted to re-word why I said this event requires a LAG approach.
A better way to state how best to play this event is to say - play tight with opening ranges - and be prepared to play for stacks in EVERY hand.
A common strategy faced in this event from opponents is to shove preflop as a 3 or 4 bet. Additionally just as common are players who shove on the flop.
If a player is not willing to play for stacks with the hands s/he decides to play, it is highly unlikely that player will make it to the late stages of this event.

Most opponents are very aggressive in this event.
I estimate 65% or more of hands played are for entire stacks.
Most players jam as a 3/4 bet.
I also estimate at least half of the 15-20 total hands I played were all-in contests. Excluding the few hands that were passively contested - folded preflop or on the flop by either me or opponents,
 
theANMATOR

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Bet Sizing when stacks are DEEP

I didn't know exactly how to tag the respective members in this topic in a new thread - so I'm following up in this thread with a different question directed at these members.

Since we all discussed bet sizing in this thread - I thought it would be appropriate to follow up with another question regarding bet sizing.

FD - I saw you mention opening larger when stacks are deeper (100+ bb ? ) in one of your hand reviews. I looked around but I could not find that exact thread again.

But I wanted to ask you directly about that comment. What are your rules regarding open bet sizing, 3bet sizing, 4bet sizing, when stacks are deep - compared to when stacks are medium, and compared to when stacks are shallow.

The question about when stacks are shallow is pretty obvious, but changing bet sizes when deep vs. when stack are medium is an interesting one to me.

I normally do not alter my bet sizing range. I open all hands between 2.24 - 2.4x.
I do not change my bet sizing based on my holdings nor how deep I am. Rather I open the same hands at slightly different open sizes. this is just my way to - keep my opponents guessing. I will open AA & K/Q & pocket 44s and 8/7 suited 2.4x and at other times I will open the same hands 2.24x. My opening betting range is not a wide gap - so opponents are not picking up tendencies on me. I'm not opening A/K suited 2.4x every time it is dealt to me, nor am I opening KKs 2.24x every time.

Compare this to a lot of players who will bet 4.4x when they have JJ+. It's really great to get this information from opponents. Or when they 5x 3bet - I know what they have - often, so it makes it easy to fold when I encounter these players when they do this - and I'm sitting their with pocket 77s. Did they bluff - possibly but unlikely - and I'm fine with laying down a medium pair and waiting for a spot when I have the advantage.

I also have a 3betting range - some times I will min-re-raise, some times I will 3.5x 3bet - some times I will make it 4x. I do this with all my 3betting range as well - so opponents are not identifying when I 3bet AA as opposed to when I am 3betting K/9, or any other 3bet bluff I might be doing.
Of course 3betting size is also altered depending on how many open/calls we have in front of us. But I'm not altering my 3betting sizes ever based on stack depths, unless their are short stacks to target. But that is not related to altering the size based on everyone having a deep stack.

I have a couple limited exceptions to this.
When I have a calling station to my left - I will - some times - raise larger and 3bet larger. This is due to that simple fact - that I want the pot to be bigger - because I know that station is not going to fold if he hits a pair.

I will also 3bet larger - when I know I have a NIT/TIGHT player on my right who has opened and I have the goods. I know these players are not going to fold - because they have been sitting around for hours waiting for their range of hands to chip up, a perfect opportunity to get a double.


But as I asked - FD you mentioned (and I have heard a couple other streamers say the same) you alter your betting sizes based on stack depths.
Could you please expand on that?


I'd also like to hear from Jon and Dude because they had some solid insight on bet sizing in the previous topic we were discussing.


Thanks fellas.


Its good, that you did not open in early position


With effective stacks being so short I don't like the 2.5x open - I know .5bb isnt much but when things like this happen we are just burning chips unnecessarily.


Also, the 2.5 raise and keeping consistent with it is the best way to play in my opinion for a tournament. It really makes the other players guess what you're playing. Definitely a good bet and if you're faced with a decision like this one, you can get away more easily compared to having 5-8bb in the pot pre-flop.
 
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