$0.5 NL HE STT: $0.5 NLHE - last hand of the bubble

hyfl · Sep 17, 2023

Hi,

I would like to get your opinion on a hand below - I've finished 4th (3 places were paid), two players were short-stacked, chipleader (Piranija66) was rather not playing aggressively before this hand.
Link to the replay tool at the bottom.

Thanks!

pokerstars, $0.44 + $0.06 - Hold'em No Limit - 100/200 - 4 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

BABYBABY011 (UTG): 745 (4 bb)
Piranija66 (BU): 6,960 (35 bb)
IgSam24 (SB): 1,530 (8 bb)
hyfl (BB): 4,265 (21 bb)

Pre-Flop: (300) Hero (hyfl) is BB with Q♠ 8♥
BABYBABY011 (UTG) calls 200, Piranija66 (BU) calls 200, IgSam24 (SB) calls 100, hyfl (BB) checks

Flop: (800) 5♠ 8♣ Q♣ (4 players)
IgSam24 (SB) checks, hyfl (BB) bets 600, BABYBABY011 (UTG) folds, Piranija66 (BU) calls 600, IgSam24 (SB) folds

Turn: (2,000) J♠ (2 players)
hyfl (BB) bets 1,500, Piranija66 (BU) raises to 6,160 (all-in), hyfl (BB) calls 1,965 (all-in)

River: (8,930) 5♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 8,930

Showdown:
Piranija66 (BU) shows J♥ Q♥ (two pair, Queens and Jacks)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 74%, Flop: 17%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

hyfl (BB) shows Q♠ 8♥ (two pair, Queens and Eights)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 26%, Flop: 83%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

Piranija66 (BU) wins 8,930

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georgi krastev · Sep 17, 2023

When passive becomes aggressive - fold.

Sopt · Sep 17, 2023

Preflop the check is completely normal and what sane person would do. I don't know how you play normally, but if you are passive player, there could have been a great opportunity to bluff there (I personally wouldn't but I know some people are capable of pulling it off). Slamming all in into 3 limpers would most likely scare all of them to fold there. Especially now that we know what kind of hand chip leader had, I don't really see him calling an all in there.
Anyhow smart play was to fold and see the flop.

On flop you hit two pair on quite a juicy board. You got flush draws, you got straight draws. I am betting there like you did, but I'd be weary of what comes on the turn and be prepared to fold to big raises.

On turn we get exactly the card we don't want to see. It finishes some straights, it opens up another flush draw and brings an option for a better two pair than ours. I'd say our bet here is completely fine, but we should be prepared to fold to raises and once chip leader went all in we should have played conservative and just fold there. Yes two pair is nice, yes if we win we pretty much win this tournament, but it's not worth the risk to bubble out. Especially since the other two players had basically zero chips left. You could have folded there and would most likely be able to take at least second place at worst.

QJ is not the hand I expected from chip leader there as I would most likely play more aggressive with it being chip leader and play being 4 way, but that's just me.

fundiver199 · Sep 17, 2023

Preflop
No reason to raise with a hand this bad. Just be happy, that you got a free look at the flop.

Flop
I would also be leading a lot of the time here, but another option is to go for a check-raise.

Turn
Definitely have to bet again, but your sizing is a bit to large. If he call, pot is going to be 5.000, and you only have 2.000 left behind. This mean, you are committing yourself to the pot, and that dont really leave him the option to call with a worse made hand and then fold it later. I have written extensively about that in a previous thread, and explained why, its not something, we want to do. You are a bit to deep to jam here, so I would size down to around 1.000, which will make the pot 4.000, if he call, with 2.500 left behind.

One of the things, your committing bet does, is to basically force him to either jam or fold a made hand. So when he jam, his range is any made hand, he does not want to fold. Like for instance AQ, KQ, QT and Q9. This mean, you have a snap call with the second best possible two pair. Please dont listen to anyone, who say, this is a fold, because bet-folding after committing yourself would be a horrible play. The result is just a cooler, and it would be a huge mistake to not lose all your chips here, even as the second largest stack on the bubble. Just a very lucky runout for everyone at the table except you. Good for them, sucks for you, but luckily its only 50c to register for the next one.

eetenor · Sep 18, 2023

hyfl said:
Hi,

I would like to get your opinion on a hand below - I've finished 4th (3 places were paid), two players were short-stacked, chipleader (Piranija66) was rather not playing aggressively before this hand.
Link to the replay tool at the bottom.

Thanks!

PokerStars, $0.44 + $0.06 - Hold'em No Limit - 100/200 - 4 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

BABYBABY011 (UTG): 745 (4 bb)
Piranija66 (BU): 6,960 (35 bb)
IgSam24 (SB): 1,530 (8 bb)
hyfl (BB): 4,265 (21 bb)

Pre-Flop: (300) Hero (hyfl) is BB with Q♠ 8♥
BABYBABY011 (UTG) calls 200, Piranija66 (BU) calls 200, IgSam24 (SB) calls 100, hyfl (BB) checks

Flop: (800) 5♠ 8♣ Q♣ (4 players)
IgSam24 (SB) checks, hyfl (BB) bets 600, BABYBABY011 (UTG) folds, Piranija66 (BU) calls 600, IgSam24 (SB) folds

Turn: (2,000) J♠ (2 players)
hyfl (BB) bets 1,500, Piranija66 (BU) raises to 6,160 (all-in), hyfl (BB) calls 1,965 (all-in)

River: (8,930) 5♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 8,930

Showdown:
Piranija66 (BU) shows J♥ Q♥ (two pair, Queens and Jacks)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 74%, Flop: 17%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

hyfl (BB) shows Q♠ 8♥ (two pair, Queens and Eights)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 26%, Flop: 83%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

Piranija66 (BU) wins 8,930

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Watching replayer no results known

Preflop fine
Flop no action yet
On the flop we want to play situational poker not GTO
What is the situation we are in right now? How do we know?

This is how I study these spots

First what data do I have
Second what are my best outcomes what are my worst outcomes
Third what actions do I take to mitigate worst and improve best.

DATA
Co limps this could be a trap hand or nothing with this stack size highly unlikely to be JJ TT etc we block QX
BTN over limps they do not have premium hands most often so Ax hands and EQR hands
SB flats same as above but possibly stronger range

My best estimated outcomes on the flop is stacking CO who limped and getting folds from big stack. Why?
If CO trapped who cares we have 2 pair we just do not want BTN to play for stacks risking our cash.

If we win now we increase our stack by 20% and take no risk of going broke in this hand. We want to take an action that gets the largest stack to fold most often or define their hand very clearly- We do not mind getting all-in vs the shorties

What action is best for that outcome on this flop?

I like the lead on the flop. We are now in the worst outcome part of the game tree when only the BTN calls - so what is our goal now?

Do we want to stack off? On the money bubble?
Does the J change our stack off freq?
If so what sizing do we choose?

Ouch bad beat there
Your study point is the turn based on the not wanting to go broke -ICM has us betting smaller on the turn most often.