$0.25 NLHE MTT: $0,25 NLHE MTT: JQs, flop is TK8 - villain overbets, what does that mean?

[italorohdrigues]

$0.25 NLHE MTT: $0,25 NLHE MTT: JQs, flop is TK8 - villain overbets, what does that mean?

So we are 13 left, I didn't see the villain doing that move before, he wasn't playing extremely agressive either, what do you think are his intentions with that flop overbet?

Does that mean a bluff? Is he protecting his hand from flush and straight because he has a pair of K or T?

I folded but I thought this was either an all in ou fold, what do you think?

https://www.boomplayer.com/31461642_30F1D50182

PS: I couldn't convert the hand because PS was sending me my hand history in portuguese

 

[pentazepam]

It is just over a pot sized bet. I know that most tournaments players bets smaller than in cash games, but on this super wet board I would probably bet 70-100% pot myself.

He mini-raise pf into several players (relatively short stacks) and then bets big on the flop. Almost never a bluff unless it is a very good draw.

So you are not good either way. Easy fold, unless you really want to gamble (you beat nothing and don't get the odds to draw).

 

[maxi_j]

Easy fold. Looks like KX. He also can semi bluf with XsXs. That cuts 25% of your outs if you hit A spades or 9 of spades.

 

[Collin Moshman]

Agree the flop is a fold, when he bets that much we should assume he’s almost never folding and the overlay isn’t enough to justify getting it in with an 8 out draw.

Also a nice alternative here is to shove pre since the effective stack is just 20bb. The suited broadways play great as 3bet shoves!

 

[Cash2019]

Hello! It is difficult to answer this question without information about the enemy, but you say that he did not show aggression. In the range of a strong opponent there may be a king and ten. I believe that in this hand the villain caught a coincidence, this is a value raise.

 

[Bluffzone68]

Hi
It was a nice fold for sure.

But I must commend that player, raising pre flop and then CBet to eliminate opposition.

 

[Jon Poker]

I think the overbet on the flop is to show his commitment to the pot. He never leads for about 50% or so of his remaining stack just to fold. I agree with the ideal of this is either a fold or an all in situation. The question is would he be doing this with anything worse than Kx? Does he take this line with QQ or JJ? At this point even AJ of spades has you in bad shape here - is that a likely holding he would do this with? If the answer is yes to any of these then a fold is pretty necessary and from the information you have given us and the way this hand plays - I think I make the same fold on the flop.

The other side to this is would the opponent be doing this with a 10x combo? Maybe A10? A10 of spades would not be too good for you here but if they were to have a 10 I think putting them all in would possibly be a profitable meaaure... they just might fold to a jam with less than a King and if you do get called by a 10 you have outs everywhere including two overcards - it's a fantastic spot to get your money in and look to take someone out.

These are the spots that make or break good players - is your fold correct? Probably, and I think I may have done the same - but, if your opponent had a hi card or 10x here you missed a fantastic spot to get your $$ in. I think if we are not folding the best hand once in a while we are calling off way too much but the same goes for folding too much so...take it for what its worth. I think the fold is fine here - obviously you did not put him on a 10x kind of hand, you fold and move onto the next one.

 

[fundiver199]

He is definitely committing himself to the pot and putting his tournament life on the line so he never have air here. Its either a strong made hand like top pair or a big combo draw. You cant really just call here, and if you stack off, you have no fold equity, and you are getting bad pot odds to draw, especially since some of your outs are not to the nuts. So as played a clear fold.

However I am not loving preflop. The problem with cold calling is, you allow the players in the blinds to see a cheap flop, and they can also jam, in which case you just lost 2BB for nothing.

At a higher limit, where people understand ICM and have a fold button, this is a nice hand to jam as a bluff. However at 25c you probably get called to much, so I just let it go and hope, that some of the other guys bust each other and put me at the final table.