$0.25 NLHE: 45man SnG bubble with AKs

[Tublecain]

$0.25 NL HE: 45man SnG bubble with AKs

This is the very end of the bubble of a 45 man SnG. I'm not shortstacked (around 20xBB), but am well below the average stack at this point. I land AKs in position, and a player who's been playing loose until now makes a 3xBB raise from EP. I decide to use my AKs strength to re-raise him and he re-raises back at me to $3000. Should I believe him and fold, or test him and just shove it. Because he's been playing loose I'm putting him on a more or less wide range for EP (77+, AJo+) and figure I have a good shot at beating him. Then again, losing means busting out just two or three spaces before the bubble. What would you have done?

Hand history below, thanks in advance!

[b]Hand Information[/b]
PokerStars - Get $50 Free No Limit, 200 BB (9 handed).
Hand History converter courtesy of [url=http://www.pokerhandreplays.com]pokerhandreplays.com[/url]

[b]Table Information[/b]
Seat: 1 Player 1 ($8700)
Seat: 2 Player 2 ($10005)
Seat: 3 [color=Red]Hero[/color] ($4490) Dealer
Seat: 4 Player 4 ($6620) Small Blind
Seat: 5 Player 5 ($16210) Big Blind
Seat: 6 Player 6 ($7585)
Seat: 7 Player 7 ($4220)
Seat: 8 Player 8 ($5930)
Seat: 9 Player 9 ($3740)
Dealt to [color=Red]Hero[/color]
[img]http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/images/poker_image/AS.png[/img] [img]http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/images/poker_image/KS.png[/img] 

[b]Preflop[/b] (Pot:300)
[i]RAISE[/i] Player 6 $600
[i]FOLD[/i] Player 7 
[i]FOLD[/i] Player 8 
[i]FOLD[/i] Player 9 
[i]FOLD[/i] Player 1 
[i]FOLD[/i] Player 2 
[i]RAISE[/i] [color=Red]Hero[/color]$1800
[i]FOLD[/i] Player 4 
[i]FOLD[/i] Player 5 
[i]RAISE[/i] Player 6 $3000
[i]?????[/i] [color=Red]Hero[/color]

 

[Jack Daniels]

You're still 2-3 places from the bubble yet with an M ~ 15 and have a really strong hand. Based on the range you figure, you're a favorite to win the hand. Once you 3bet him you're pretty much committed to playing this imo. You can't put 40% of your chips into the pot then fold; that would be horrible at this point. You're a little better than a 6:5 favorite against that range and I'm not surprised to see AK here from him as well. Shove.

 

[Coramoor_]

aside from that, unless you're down to your last few bucks, making it deeper into the tournament is generally better then just making the bubble and busting, sure you can get another tourny in but the potential reward from going all in after that scenario with this hand is definitely worthwhile

 

[pitter22]

play for first.. not just a cash. and u've already commited almost half your stack. your ok to put the rest of your chips in

 

[ihtennis]

definitely shove, especially because he has been playing loose and your AK is suited. He probably had and ace with a weaker kicker or a marginal pocket pair

 

[Tublecain]

Thanks for the replies everyone. I indeed ended up shoving, which I felt was the right decision at this point in the tourney. The villain called; it's been a couple weeks since I played the hand so I don't remember exactly what he flipped, but I do remember that he won.

Still, it's always comforting to know that a bad beat was a bad beat, and not poor decision making on my part. I always like to double check these types of calls on this forum whether I win or lose, because I always feel like I get solid analysis and advice. Thanks again everyone; best of luck to you!

T.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I probably just shove this pf - as played you're calling a shove anyway and shoving eliminates any potential awkwardness that may arise from your smaller 3-bet getting flat called.

As played is fine too though.

 

[RhiNy]

Blinds are 100-200, and you have 4.8k... and AK is the most overrated hand in poker in my opinion... FOLD IT.

 

[Emperor IX]

Blinds are 100-200, and you have 4.8k... and AK is the most overrated hand in poker in my opinion... FOLD IT.

...

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/overplaying-a-k-83363/post-531624.html

The exact concept he's stressing doesn't apply super well here, but I think you'd do well to read it anyway.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Blinds are 100-200, and you have 4.8k... and AK is the most overrated hand in poker in my opinion... FOLD IT.

captain cliché saves the day!

 

[sky4ever]

This is a stage in a tournament/SNGo where you should boost your aggression, especially with this kind of hands against the kind of opponents you described. Shove.
If he was a TAG I would consider folding here but this is the moment when you should use the information you gained about your opponents until this point.