$0.22 NLHE MTT Rebuy: Pocket Pair vs. Rag Ace???

[Caissa]

There are 18 players left out of 59, 8 places paid. Villain is the chip leader by a huge margin. Hero is 2nd or 3rd in chips over all. Villain has been seeing almost every flop as cheaply as she can and basically outplaying (or bullying) post flop. She has also won a couple flips. Hero has been stealing pretty much every time it is folded to her.in mid or late position.

Blinds 500/1000 no ante

UTG+1 (3075)
UTG+2 (17532)
MP1 (3357)
MP2 (12710)
HJ (1880)
Villian (CO) (44586)
Button (1790)
SB (16547)
Hero (BB) (23648)

SB posts 500, Hero posts 1000
Hero dealt 8s 8d
5 folds, Villain calls 1000, fold, Hero raises 22648 to 23648 and is all in, Villain calls 22648

I figured I was well ahead of the Villain's range and that I had a good deal of fold equity. I figured worse case I was against a bigger pair in which case I was sunk but if she had 99 or better she would have raised (unless she was trapping which is a whole nother issue I have) Two over cards would be a flip which I was ok with (if anyone can help me with the ICM implications of this strategy I would we grateful. I know I am missing something.).
Anything else I would be well ahead. Most importantly, I wanted to get her off her hand before she saw a flop. I don't know.

Villian shows Ac6c Pot = 47795

Board: Js 9s 9c Ah 4c, Villain wins 47795, Hero busts

So she was behind 70/30. I really don't know how she called with that crap but she did and sucked out. It wasn't the first time and I'm sure It won't be the last.

I keep hearing that it's not really good to fold yourself into the money, that's it's much better to go for the win. But repeatedly I have gone from a sizable stack to busting on or near the bubble. What am I missing? Help!

 

[horizon12]

When no ante only raise preflop, around 2.5bb enough with your size stack.... Your shove big mistake, in pot not much dead money and it is never be profitable...

 

[KUN_AGUERO_KROOS]

both of you played terribly. Everyone left is super short stacked, chip leader has 44bb and 2nd has 20bb, it doesn`t make ANY sense to make that play. You need some lessons on bubble, variance, playing short stacked.

 

[KUN_AGUERO_KROOS]

Two over cards would be a flip which I was ok with (if anyone can help me with the ICM implications of this strategy I would we grateful. I know I am missing something.).

WHAT? Why would u want to flip against the only player who can bust you?

Most importantly, I wanted to get her off her hand before she saw a flop.

You were playing a 22 CENTS MTT. There is NO fold equity for your opponents. Donks like to see flops and there is nothing you can do about it. The best you can do against big stack donks is to play like a nit and get full value when u have monsters. You will NEVER EVER outplay them, they will call you with garbage just for the fun of it. They r gambling and you should play ABC poker.

 

[Debi]

I would be inclined to raise about 4k - that still leaves you with almost 19k if you need to fold the flop.

With that said I would seriously consider shoving the flop - it's a decent flop for you and she may have folded.

It's easy to say what to do when the outcome is already revealed - you should post your hands without revealing that for a better discussion.

 

[Debi]

both of you played terribly. Everyone left is super short stacked, chip leader has 44bb and 2nd has 20bb, it doesn`t make ANY sense to make that play. You need some lessons on bubble, variance, playing short stacked.

WHAT? Why would u want to flip against the only player who can bust you?



You were playing a 22 CENTS MTT. There is NO fold equity for your opponents. Donks like to see flops and there is nothing you can do about it. The best you can do against big stack donks is to play like a nit and get full value when u have monsters. You will NEVER EVER outplay them, they will call you with garbage just for the fun of it. They r gambling and you should play ABC poker.

Be a bit nicer please - you can make your point, be helpful and still be nice all at once.

 

[Martin]

So frustrating when that happens but shoving 88 pre when the chip leader is in the pot and has double your chips is a mistake, you're flipping against most aces there and really are looking to hit the set, raise pre as has been mentioned before 2.5 to 3x then re evaluate on the flop if they call.

Possible flop shove is one option as is betting half pot or just over and seeing if you get the fold there.

Sometimes players just can't fold the ace and at the end of the day these are the players you want in the game as you will often beat them more times than not, just got to shrug it off and look for better spots to gain some chips.

 

[lcid86]

I wouldn't have pushed pre-flop unless I was expecting villain to fold. 8-8 isn't a strong hand to risk tourney on. Better play was a raise and then c-bet all-in if you like the flop. I probably woulda set-mined and seen what developed...

 

[glemly]

I figured I was well ahead of the Villain's range and that I had a good deal of fold equity.

Even so, you put all your chips in when a simple 3-4BB raise would have sufficed. Why risk more chips when you can get them to fold for less?

And like others have said, if Villain does call you can evaluate your position once the flop comes. If you bet the flop as well and Villain calls, then you should slow down.

Keep in mind, one thing a lot of players forget when playing tournaments is that, as the 2nd or 3rd biggest stack left, playing against the chip leader is not equitable in many situations. You have a good chance as it is to make the money - a better chance than someone with less chips, obviously. Because of this I think you should minimize big pots with chip leaders - or at least, when you do get into big pot, make sure you have a very good hand. Going all-in like you did not only does the exact opposite of minimizing your risk with other big chip stacks, but you are practically asking him to call since you have been stealing from him right and left. That's probably one of the reasons he just called you down with ace rag, and he ended up getting lucky.


for more on stack sizes, check this out
http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/concepts/stack-sizes/

 

[horizon12]

I would be inclined to raise about 4k - that still leaves you with almost 19k if you need to fold the flop.

With that said I would seriously consider shoving the flop - it's a decent flop for you and she may have folded.

It's easy to say what to do when the outcome is already revealed - you should post your hands without revealing that for a better discussion.

4bb raise preflop it very much , this already 20% of our stack, we not have fold equity villain never fold in preflop , also not have position, with pair 88 on many boards when will be overcards , it very difficult play. We must cbet around 50% of the pot on all boards , around 4 bb so we can lose 40% of stack... if villain shove...

Size 2.5bb raise preflop more much better situation, this 10% of our stack, also we need cbet only 2.5bb on all boards, also we have fold equity... We can lose only 25% of our stack if villain shove..

About shove preflop , it will be big mistake , as I said above without ante , we can win only 2.5 bb , but lose whole stack, without dead money it would not be profitable...

With the right size bets , we do not have shove in flop and play a coin...

 

[Ambur]

flat the preflop and evaluate the situation on postflop (you are OOP) and your table is full of short stacks imo.

You said the villain has been maniac (seeing almost all flops as cheap as possible, its good hand to mix your game up), You should consider the table stack sizes weather to make a move. You should not get personal even if he/she is way out of line! This villain has ability to knock you out the tourney while there is 4 short stack pretty much blinded dead!

Invest against those maniac players as minimal as possible! i would recommend leading out only the top of your range (JJ,QQ,KK,AA,KAo) even strong hand as KAs is good canditate to just see the flop cheaply!

 

[WiZZiM]

while the jam is likely profitable, it depends if we want to make this risk for the pot out there currently, or use our skill postflop to win more with less risk. Jamming is most likely profitable since 2.5bb is still enough to our 20bb stack and we likely get a lot of folds and also likely decent against their percieved calling range.... however, it's not what i would do ever, so our options imo are

I see a few options here preflop to be honest, all which revolve around us having the disadvantage of position.

We can

check- this is a very cautious play, and with our hand type some will argue we lose value, but tournament poker isn't strictly about value, so just chill it's not that big of a deal. We also gain no information about the hand strength of villian, but with the villian you describe, raising also gives us no information... Check is fine for me and we can play a smaller pot postflop vs one opponant OOP.

Minraise- Seems like a weird play, but this is basically the same as checking, but we bump up the pot slightly for postflop play, so basically extracting a little more value for the hand. We also possibly gain info for monster hands if she decides to limp/jam.

Raising large- We may get more folds preflop, but against this villian as described it's going to be hard to narrow ranges regardless and if they call it can put us in no mans land on a lot of flops/turns. So we are basically running a bluff here when we raise big, as we don't really want to get past the flop much with our hand type (totally depends on board textures, but most often we will see overcards). So if our plan for the hand is to raise large to get folds, it doesnt make sense at all vs this player, and any flop bet is essentially a bluff no matter what our hand type.