Valid ACR RGR or is it a Runn runner Site?

[zc13expert]

Before entering into discussions, I must say that I am a recreational poker player and that I do not use any kind of help software, additionally I have played approximately 3 years in ACR, but some of what I do is logic and numbers. I am a Systems Engineer with more than 30 years of experience.

Now, I have noticed in the last months and I do not know from which system update (ACR), that the number of times the winning hand ends up being the one with the least chance and always runner runner without any logic that the player call or go all in with that hand post flop.

They end up drawing a straight, flush or hitting the impossible, in freeroll tournaments or with very low buy-in it is acceptable that there are bingo players, but in tournaments and sits of 15 or 55 dollars? a player to call all in with good chips with 78 on the 4th flop and hit 9 6 on the turn river?

 

[fundiver199]

As a system engineer you should be able to understand the concept of variance, since its basically a statistical phenomenon. If you flip a coin 10 times, the average expected outcome is 5 heads and 5 tails. But sometimes it will be 7 heads and 3 tails, and other times 2 heads and 8 tails.

ACR allow the use of trackers, and the site has existed for many years. This mean, some players now have millions of hands in their database, and it would be fairly easy for someone with a bit of statistical knowledge to prove, if something was not reverting to the statistical mean over a significant sample. Like if for instance it was outside the 99,99% confidence interval or something.

So as with other sites, the simple fact, nobody has come forward with such evidence, is a strong argument it inself, that the distribution is actually random in the long run. And of course manually noting individual outcomes is not a proper scientific way of collecting data, which I am sure, you already know. You might unknowingly suffer from confirmation bias, your sample is probably very small, etc.

Also remember that hands dont always go to showdown. In cash games a good player typically only goes to showdown around 3 out of 10 times, that he sees a flop. So the hands, you see at showdown, are not representative for all the hands, that saw the flop. If 65s is played against AA, the hand will probably go to showdown, if 65s makes two pair or better, but not if 65s ends up as either one pair or 6 high.