Variance Or Bad Plays?

[EthanR]

The last week or so I've been getting absolutely destroyed on the tables, I don't know what's going on. For the first while I'd tell myself it was variance when I'd 4bet Queens into Kings or get it in with an over pair against a set, but it's becoming incredibly consistent and I feel like I may be just giving myself an excuse by blaming it on variance. For example, I had 4 tables up the other day, and 3 times within 10 minutes of each other I flopped top and bottom pair and got it in against top two pair or a set. Should i stop check raising hands like two pairs on the flop? Should i be folding when they re raise? I have played about 30 MTTs in the last week with exactly 2 cashes, both minimum. (and a bounty here and there)

I know variance is one of those things all poker players go through but it's been going on for so long I'm wondering if maybe it's not variance, it's me.

 

[playinggameswithu]

it's bad plays i suspect. you need to understand range narrowing and what they can and cant be doing things with.

 

[EthanR]

it's bad plays i suspect. you need to understand range narrowing and what they can and cant be doing things with.

I'm not saying I haven't been making mistakes but I am aware of range narrowing, but when it comes to Cbetting on A86 and I flatted the BB with A6, the majority of their range will be AK AQ type hands I want to get it on against. They just always manage to wake up with A8 or 88

 

[ammje]

Hi, Ethan, is hard to say you're playing bad, we would have to analyze many of your hands.
The variance is normal, all players have slumps, I think when you're in a slump, it is better to stop playing, or play less.
It is important not to change the way you play, because you're having a lot badbeats, some players they lose with AA KK QQ, change the way they play, and play more aggressive these hands, for fear of losing, but you should always play the same.
If you have questions with their hands, I recommend that you upload to boomplayer, and then ask for advice on the sub forum, assessment tournament hands.
gl

 

[Meepomancer1122]

It's just variance (from what you've said it looks like it at least), but try to take a day or two to cool off and start grinding again. You'll feel much better

 

[gryphon3005]

I've gone through what you described more than once. I think the answer is it's a little of both. Variance can go on longer than we sometimes accept as "normal". Sometimes there is an emotional reaction that you don't recognize at the time....you get a little too stubborn and decide the bad beats can't go on forever so now it's time to shove.

You didn't indicate in your post if your shoving and getting called or your calling their shove. It's probably both but either way you're ignoring the warning signs. So, take a short break, and come back to the tables with a slightly more cautious approach.....keep the pots a little smaller and tighten up that shoving range.

 

[Yanko57]

The last week or so I've been getting absolutely destroyed on the tables, I don't know what's going on. For the first while I'd tell myself it was variance when I'd 4bet Queens into Kings or get it in with an over pair against a set, but it's becoming incredibly consistent and I feel like I may be just giving myself an excuse by blaming it on variance. For example, I had 4 tables up the other day, and 3 times within 10 minutes of each other I flopped top and bottom pair and got it in against top two pair or a set. Should i stop check raising hands like two pairs on the flop? Should i be folding when they re raise? I have played about 30 MTTs in the last week with exactly 2 cashes, both minimum. (and a bounty here and there)

I know variance is one of those things all poker players go through but it's been going on for so long I'm wondering if maybe it's not variance, it's me.

Are you playing micro-limits or higher? It could be a HUGE difference... Low limits don't bluff.

 

[socram98]

GG

Hello I Noob :ciao:

 

[RiverLord90]

It's really hard to say. Sometimes it's bad plays, sometimes bad beats, sometimes a combination of both.

I am starting to be pretty cognizant of when I make a bad play right when I do. If I'm in a freeroll, I'll sometimes make the bad play just to see if my read on the player's cards was right.

I had a string of bad beats a few days ago, losing AA and KK to lower cards in spite of aggressive preflop bets and hitting sets knocking me out of a step 4 freeroll. Variance will get you, no doubt about that, but I think it's important to realize when you're running bad and playing bad and distinguish the two.

But whichever is the case, sometimes a break from the game can help.

 

[alvinw]

ok this is always a tough answer. but from the statement, you flopped top and bottom on 3 tables tells me that your playing too many hands pre. flopping top and bottom is hard to do if you are playing a tighter range pre. ie AJ+ KJs+ QT+ I mean you maybe be playing too many gapped Broadways. Variance is a real thing in the short term but so is "bad" play. and the looser you play the wider and more pronounced the swings. I think you should load up your hud and filter out your preflop ranges see what's going on there. in MTTs you can go 40 mtts and not cash. the issue will arise when you TILT or start trying to change things tooooooooooo much. Look for Tilt in your game and look to see what good things you are doing in your cashes. GL Sir

 

[Souza322]

I thing you need to recheck you game, in poker is a lot of variants but is better to be sure, again, check you game and take a break from poker until you feel it is time to go back... This is always good, and healthy.

 

[VMVarga]

It could be both. You could be getting on the wrong side of variance and also be making poor decisions.

Top pair and two pair hands are not all that strong. You might start to think they are because you have been frequently taking down pots with those hands. But you should not let this affect the way you play those hands. It sounds like you are forgetting about your opponent and you are getting too aggressive in the wrong spots.

If you have two pair on a board with flush and straight draws, you should be wary of your hand and be prepared to fold if the opponent starts acting funny. Sometimes you run into a well placed trap when your opponent hits a set, but that doesn't mean you must oblige them by shoving your whole stack in with just two pair or worse. But more often you will face someone with a better hand who is going to let you know it by reraising, check raising, or jamming on river bets. Unless you have seen the player bluff with high frequency, it would be safer to assume that they are not bluffing, and that they likely have your two pair or top pair top/kicker beat. This is where the skill comes into play. The better you can read an opponent and the closer you are to putting them on their actual hand, the better your decision making should be. Take each hand one step at a time, and don't start getting ideas about how you "should" win with AA or KK.

I can't count the number of times I have been in BB, either defending or checking limps, and flopped two pair with rags and then gotten too excited trying to push drawing hands and top pairs off the pot, only to have top or mid pair turn or river a better two pair, or counterfeit my flopped two pair. It happens so often that I have started to play a flopped bottom two pair more like a single pair. This should also apply to bottom two pairs that develop into full houses on the turn or river. Full houses that come from flopped bottom two pair are the weakest and most vulnerable kind of full houses.

Slow down and focus on the task at hand, taking each hand one step at a time.