You need to understand that this is a very complex calculation not easily described but I'll do my best.
The reason the percentage you calculated doesn't match is you are failing to take into account two possibilities:
- A card comes that further reduces your outs on the river
- You hit your hand on the turn but then your opponent improves on the river
Ex: The turn brings a 2. Your flush and straight outs are no longer good and you can only rely on the Qh and the 7h to win the hand
Ex: The turn brings the 5h, but the river brings the 5s, negating your flush.
To accurately calculate this, you need to establish all 1980 combination of cards, and highlight the combinations where you beat your opponent's hand. This would include hands where you improved more than they did (straight flush to full house), and hands where only you improved. You cannot count hands that you both improved but you still lose (flush or straight to full house) and hands that you never improved, regardless of what they do.
Keep in mind the rule of 4 and 2 is only an approximation and not an exact calculation. When you see the odds on TV they are doing all of these exact calculations.
So while you have 14 outs on the turn, you may have 14 outs on the river, or you may only have 2 outs on the river if they hit a boat, or you may have up to 37 outs on the river if you hit your flush and they need to improve to a full house needing a 2, the case 9 or one of the three cards that would pair the turn.
Make more sense?
