aloevera
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
zachvac
Legend
Silver Level
Well this is the beginner's section. This is just the empirical estimate obviously, if it were somewhere else we could have gotten into the calculus of it and where the k comes from
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A
Adventurebound2
Legend
Silver Level
Where did the k come from anyway?
It can't be a constant adjusted to how a site is rigged against me because according to my math each site is rigged 100% against me at every site I have a cash acount at, therefore no possible way to adjust from one site to the next. After all we all know poker is rigged (be it online or brick and mortar) simply because AA and AK does not win every single time that is unless the other guy has it.
Zach...please explain the calculus of K?
It can't be a constant adjusted to how a site is rigged against me because according to my math each site is rigged 100% against me at every site I have a cash acount at, therefore no possible way to adjust from one site to the next. After all we all know poker is rigged (be it online or brick and mortar) simply because AA and AK does not win every single time that is unless the other guy has it.
Zach...please explain the calculus of K?
Chiefer
Legend
Silver Level
I think the correct number is 3.5*top prize - 10*expected ROI +3.792833*k
where k is a constant adjusted for how rigged each site is against you.
i got a blah, blah, blah, what, huh, and what. damn i suck at math, from this post. it's a good thing you are around to confuse the newbs. lol
on a side not. finally we have a section where i might be better at this game then the rest.
zachvac
Legend
Silver Level
lol you guys do realize I'm just making random crap up right? I thought about adding in another constant that was the number of stars you can see when you look at the sky at night
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zachvac
Legend
Silver Level
Glad you asked:
Here's the equation again:
BR needed = 3.5*top prize - 10*expected ROI +3.792833*k
If this were not an estimate we wouldn't use only top prize, but we would use all the prizes, probability of winning each one, and calculate the probability of busting to determine the BR needed. Instead we simply use the top prize assuming that we will be in different payout structures in a somewhat bell curve. The ROI normalizes it as if you have a high ROI you will be further to the right (towards the top prize) and if you have a low ROI you will be further to the left.
Now what we do is integrate the curve, and we take the area under a certain amount of money to be total money. Since it is a normal curve all the probability adds up to one, so the area under the curve is an approximate weighted average of the money and our probability. It's been calculated that even the most rigged site only takes $3.792833 from an average player, so someone with a 0 ROI and 100% rigged will need $3.792833.
But we still don't know if k is linear, quadratic, etc. We know two points, so we need to determine the order of k. Since we realize poker is rigged and although we can't explain it we know when poker is x% rigged, we just kept playing until we had a session where we just knew it was 50% rigged. We lost exactly $1.90 which is half of the 100% number rounded. So we determined that k is linear and we can use the formula included. It has been extensively tested and scientifically proven. Let's use it to determine the approximate BR needed if we assume that Stars, as we know it is, is 100% rigged, and our ROI will be 10%:
BR needed = 3.5*top prize - 10*expected ROI +3.792833*k
BR needed = 3.5*5520.68 - 10*0.1 + 3.792833*1
BR needed = $19,326
RickH2005
Legend
Silver Level
What Just Happened?
MAN! Being new and all, this site is a bit difficult to manuver! I'll try again! Now, considering I flunked Math twice in college, BUT pulled a 98% on my high school Algebra final-isn't there an easier way to figure out what re-buys, add-ons etc. should be other than what you guys are TRYING to explain to us new-bees??? Sumpin' like, oh I dunno, never buy into an MTT w/ more than 2% of your bankroll OR drop out before the blinds reach you when table stakes are 10%+ of your roll in ring games OR sumpin' simple to remember and keep the calc book closed????
MAN! Being new and all, this site is a bit difficult to manuver! I'll try again! Now, considering I flunked Math twice in college, BUT pulled a 98% on my high school Algebra final-isn't there an easier way to figure out what re-buys, add-ons etc. should be other than what you guys are TRYING to explain to us new-bees??? Sumpin' like, oh I dunno, never buy into an MTT w/ more than 2% of your bankroll OR drop out before the blinds reach you when table stakes are 10%+ of your roll in ring games OR sumpin' simple to remember and keep the calc book closed????
P
ph_il
...
Silver Level
Mathematics are all part of the game....or sumpin' like that.MAN! Being new and all, this site is a bit difficult to manuver! I'll try again! Now, considering I flunked Math twice in college, BUT pulled a 98% on my high school Algebra final-isn't there an easier way to figure out what re-buys, add-ons etc. should be other than what you guys are TRYING to explain to us new-bees??? Sumpin' like, oh I dunno, never buy into an MTT w/ more than 2% of your bankroll OR drop out before the blinds reach you when table stakes are 10%+ of your roll in ring games OR sumpin' simple to remember and keep the calc book closed????
Am i rite, Zach?
zachvac
Legend
Silver Level
Still looking for noobie posts......not one yet....
lol at least we do have one truly beginner thread, so I don't feel quite as guilty for totally hijacking this section
MAN! Being new and all, this site is a bit difficult to manuver! I'll try again! Now, considering I flunked Math twice in college, BUT pulled a 98% on my high school Algebra final-isn't there an easier way to figure out what re-buys, add-ons etc. should be other than what you guys are TRYING to explain to us new-bees??? Sumpin' like, oh I dunno, never buy into an MTT w/ more than 2% of your bankroll OR drop out before the blinds reach you when table stakes are 10%+ of your roll in ring games OR sumpin' simple to remember and keep the calc book closed????
lol sorry I confused you but I was just having fun and making stuff up in this thread.
My REAL answer for the BR needed would probably be just to treat it like a $12 tournament or whatever your average buy-in is and then use the 2% rule. That would give you a more realistic answer of $600. Of course just because of the nature of the rebuy and the fact that it seems you can practically blind your way to the money with all the crazy stuff that happens, I'd probably say you'd be fine with half of that.
KenFischer
Rock Star
Silver Level
$21,150 should cover it
I'm pretty happy that I was in the ballpark here without realizing it. My maths were not as fancy, which clearly explains the deviation from the more accurate answer that Zach presented
KenFischer
Rock Star
Silver Level
I agree completely. The huge amount of dead money in most rebuys pads the prize pool enough that ROI on rebuys will exceed non-rebuy MTTs, from my experience.
To keep from killing my ROI/bankroll with one bad tournament, I always set a limit on my rebuys (5 max counting the add-on), so for me 5x the entry is my "buy-in" for the 2% rule.
dj11
Legend
Silver Level
I think the correct number is 3.5*top prize - 10*expected ROI +3.792833*k
where k is a constant adjusted for how rigged each site is against you.
Man, this is so way above a beginner section reply I can't see straight!
BTW zach, I don't see any suggestion that the k adjusts for the variance through time of the riggedness at any particular site. As I don't have forever, I need a constant that is a little less, well, constant.
Tammy
Can I help you?
Administrator
They are just joking around with the maths stuff in this thread. What you're saying is a great way to figure it out.MAN! Being new and all, this site is a bit difficult to manuver! I'll try again! Now, considering I flunked Math twice in college, BUT pulled a 98% on my high school Algebra final-isn't there an easier way to figure out what re-buys, add-ons etc. should be other than what you guys are TRYING to explain to us new-bees??? Sumpin' like, oh I dunno, never buy into an MTT w/ more than 2% of your bankroll OR drop out before the blinds reach you when table stakes are 10%+ of your roll in ring games OR sumpin' simple to remember and keep the calc book closed????
blankoblanco
plays poker on hard mode
Silver Level
zachvac
Legend
Silver Level
lol, feel kinda bad about this, tried to make sure everyone would realize it was a joke. Maybe the mods could move this to like poker general or the lounge so other people aren't confused/intimidated when they're just trying to learn their way around?