Playing the Turn and the River (Day 17 Course Discussion)

Debi

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Three Keys to Playing the Late Streets is half of your betting rounds. It is important to make great decisions when you get this far in a hand.

If you have not yet read Day 17 and watched the video for Day 17 - take a few minutes now to do that and then come back here to discuss it:

Playing the Turn and the River

On the turn if you are in doubt then the rule of thumb is if you bet the flop then bet the turn. Collin and Katie discuss playing the late streets - we hope you learned some valuable things in this lesson.

Let's discuss playing the turn and the river - Collin and Katie will be joining this discussion.

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Polytarp

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This video strikes at the heart of a serious issue I've been having for several months....suck outs. A suck-out on the turn happens and can be accounted for but I've lost far too many showdowns by a single card suck-out on the river for these to be just bad luck. The only solution for this quandry/dilemma/issue/problem that I can fathom is that I need to increase my bet size dramatically at the river. Are there any other "throw the kitchen-sink methods" that I could use to bullet proof these losses? To balance things out, today during the CC ACR game I had an AX and runner,runner,runner, runner (K-Q-J-10..showed up) where there were four then three in the pot because of the increased bets. All I can say is that it was risky to keep paying into the pot knowing I was beaten all the way down this guantlet..but I was able to afford the bets! If the bets had been double in size I couldn't have reached that high straight but I think I was being herded into a pen to be slaughtered and instead the tables were turned. Suffice to say I was going bluff the river but would have lost..there a was low straight and I think two pair at showdown.:fight:
 
PsychoVas

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It seems I need to work a lot more on my turn play. I usually am very aggressive at the turn when I know I'm ahead only to get rivered. I have to re-think pot control and bluff-catching mode...
 
Katie Dozier

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This video strikes at the heart of a serious issue I've been having for several months....suck outs. A suck-out on the turn happens and can be accounted for but I've lost far too many showdowns by a single card suck-out on the river for these to be just bad luck. The only solution for this quandry/dilemma/issue/problem that I can fathom is that I need to increase my bet size dramatically at the river. Are there any other "throw the kitchen-sink methods" that I could use to bullet proof these losses? To balance things out, today during the CC ACR game I had an AX and runner,runner,runner, runner (K-Q-J-10..showed up) where there were four then three in the pot because of the increased bets. All I can say is that it was risky to keep paying into the pot knowing I was beaten all the way down this guantlet..but I was able to afford the bets! If the bets had been double in size I couldn't have reached that high straight but I think I was being herded into a pen to be slaughtered and instead the tables were turned. Suffice to say I was going bluff the river but would have lost..there a was low straight and I think two pair at showdown.:fight:
Running bad can be extraordinarily frustrating and I'm sorry to hear you have taken more than your share of bad beats lately. To answer your question, there's no way to bullet proof these loses, they are part of the game. As humans, we all tend to discount our good luck and see more of our bad luck, if that makes sense.

Personally when I reach a point where I feel like I'm running very bad I prefer to take a break from playing and focus on studying so that I can come back to the tables more confident and with a healthy view of the reality of variance :)
 
cferdi

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This video strikes at the heart of a serious issue I've been having for several months....suck outs. A suck-out on the turn happens and can be accounted for but I've lost far too many showdowns by a single card suck-out on the river for these to be just bad luck. The only solution for this quandry/dilemma/issue/problem that I can fathom is that I need to increase my bet size dramatically at the river. Are there any other "throw the kitchen-sink methods" that I could use to bullet proof these losses? To balance things out, today during the CC ACR game I had an AX and runner,runner,runner, runner (K-Q-J-10..showed up) where there were four then three in the pot because of the increased bets. All I can say is that it was risky to keep paying into the pot knowing I was beaten all the way down this guantlet..but I was able to afford the bets! If the bets had been double in size I couldn't have reached that high straight but I think I was being herded into a pen to be slaughtered and instead the tables were turned. Suffice to say I was going bluff the river but would have lost..there a was low straight and I think two pair at showdown.:fight:


Wow, sounds like you and me both! Just had a rant on Day 16 about a bad run lately, although it's not just rivers, but those too:eek:

Sorry to hear about that, but must have felt good to turn the tables!:D I know that the odd win where things have gone right for me lately have felt amazing.... for five seconds at least, till the next hand, hehe:p
 
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Polytarp

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Personally when I reach a point where I feel like I'm running very bad I prefer to take a break from playing and focus on studying so that I can come back to the tables more confident and with a healthy view of the reality of variance :)

Your perspective is on point in this response and in others. "Running bad/good" means that others must be experiencing the opposite (zero sum game approximation), entangled outcomes, regression and r^2 fit/rationale..etc..are some approaches to establishing and identifying the type of variance involved. You may have already done this kind of thing already but I'm approaching these poker scenarios for the first time more technically, is it possible to solve a poker game? It's a bit of a loaded question and goes to the point of preventing certain "suck-outs" from happening.
Like being one's own doctor, a proper diagnosis and application of the cure will usually fix things..if a cure is available. I'm no doctor but I do try to understand the problem and the right approach to resolve it...one problem at a time..:help:
 
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Day 17- Three Keys to Playing the Late Streets

Hi Guys and Ladies,

I also identify a lot with this topic because I lose a lot, a lot in turns.

I don't know if it's because I come with theoretically good hands and don't hit anything on the flop and the villain raises very high to protect the hand.

So in the next hand I go with everything else with a strong hand and decide: I go to the end, but beat even if it is a ridiculous pair for the villain enough to win the hand.

I think it is exactly at this point that I need to think more, maybe to know what to write down about the villain, I just know that playing too tight is not enough because I always have less chips than everyone (until my stack doesn't scare) and everyone calls, making that the combined odds devastate me from the game.

For what I have been thinking maybe, in addition to the notes being really expert on the statistics and cards that I must play (really know everything), all this combined with catch-bluff schools, in short, I don't know, it really is a very delicate point for me and maybe at the end of the course and with experience I can clarify something at this point.

Good Luck and lets movie foward :jd4::confused::confused::confused:
 
Debi

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Hi Guys and Ladies,

I also identify a lot with this topic because I lose a lot, a lot in turns.

I don't know if it's because I come with theoretically good hands and don't hit anything on the flop and the villain raises very high to protect the hand.

So in the next hand I go with everything else with a strong hand and decide: I go to the end, but beat even if it is a ridiculous pair for the villain enough to win the hand.

I think it is exactly at this point that I need to think more, maybe to know what to write down about the villain, I just know that playing too tight is not enough because I always have less chips than everyone (until my stack doesn't scare) and everyone calls, making that the combined odds devastate me from the game.

For what I have been thinking maybe, in addition to the notes being really expert on the statistics and cards that I must play (really know everything), all this combined with catch-bluff schools, in short, I don't know, it really is a very delicate point for me and maybe at the end of the course and with experience I can clarify something at this point.

Good Luck and lets movie foward :jd4::confused::confused::confused:

The late streets are where you win and lose the most chips - hope you learned some good lessons in this course. :)
 
belizebum

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Love these rules. I do have a question. If we are at the river and see the busted draws and we check, with the decision to call the villain, and he bets some insane amount, do we just fold?
 
Andrey FRIFIN

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I love these rules. I have a question. If we are on the river and see the defeated draws, and we check, with the decision to call the villain, and he bets some crazy amount, are we just dumping?

If we check, then yes, we fold
 
Luvart

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Finished Day #17.

A good rejuvenation for playing the last two streets of a poker hand. I agree with betting the turn with draw that have little to no showdown value. Proper playing of the last two streets will have a massive effect on a player's winrate. It applies to cash games too.

Tomorrow with Day #18.
 
Phoenix Wright

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I was missing value!

Okay, elaborating a bit more... I knew about betting when in doubt (turn or river in this context) and I've always value bet Rivers when I believed I had a better hand than my opponent. However, the River Bluff-Catching Rule was something I was missing out on. In these spots, where I put my opponent on a busted draw, I usually figured I was better and bet the river for value. The concept of checking the river to induce a bluff from missed draws is genius to me because I somehow overlooked this idea that seems so obvious to me now :D

Thanks a lot for this piece of information. It is a simple adjustment that I am sure will get me more value in the long run :)
 
redboy23

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I have always felt like too many checks take place on the turn after my c-bets on blank flops. Most persons now expect a c-bet from most poker players and often call post flop and bluff the turn if the aggressor gives up the betting lead. This is an area of my game that I need to look into.

Response to video question:

I would fire a semi-bluff there of half the pot and see what villain does. This is not only and excellent scare card but also a nut flush if we hit on the river. Then I plan to check raise the river if I hit.

At the mercy of the cards here. :)
 
redboy23

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Oops, I thought I saw an Ace of spades. My bad. (Rub my eyes). But still bet.
 
Collin Moshman

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I was missing value!

Okay, elaborating a bit more... I knew about betting when in doubt (turn or river in this context) and I've always value bet Rivers when I believed I had a better hand than my opponent. However, the River Bluff-Catching Rule was something I was missing out on. In these spots, where I put my opponent on a busted draw, I usually figured I was better and bet the river for value. The concept of checking the river to induce a bluff from missed draws is genius to me because I somehow overlooked this idea that seems so obvious to me now :D

Thanks a lot for this piece of information. It is a simple adjustment that I am sure will get me more value in the long run :)

Yes Phoenix, exactly -- it's a subtle idea but so valuable. Checking to let an aggro opponent bluff when there are a lot of busted draws can really pay off!

I have always felt like too many checks take place on the turn after my c-bets on blank flops. Most persons now expect a c-bet from most poker players and often call post flop and bluff the turn if the aggressor gives up the betting lead. This is an area of my game that I need to look into.

Response to video question:

I would fire a semi-bluff there of half the pot and see what villain does. This is not only and excellent scare card but also a nut flush if we hit on the river. Then I plan to check raise the river if I hit.

At the mercy of the cards here. :)


That's a very good point Redboy on that turn dynamic and you can for sure use that to your advantage in different ways. Nice comments :)
 
makisaa

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Turn and river are the finals of a poker hand. Especially the river is like the end of a thriller many times!
 
freddydr87

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The problem with checking is that you have a decent draw. With two overcards and a gutshot straight draw, you have 10 outs to a likely-best hand. But if you check, you’re just going to have to fold facing a bet.
Betting gives you a chance to pick this pot up at the turn, and means you’ll at least get to see the river unless your opponent raises. What hands are we trying to get him to fold? Mainly ace-high. Plenty of hands like Ah8h and AcTc will call pre-flop and then call this flop, but are likely to fold to further aggression on the turn.
I dont agree with this statement in the ebook,this 7h is a total blank that only inpruve some backdoors(backdoor flush and backdoor strait draw) so a hand made like A9 or a middle pokect pair like 88 who are bloquing some off this draws will never fold here and we cant allwais count with our overcards becasue some off them can give our oponent a second pair that would make us bet againg river and louse a lot more, so when im on this spot i allwais count on the equity off my draw and that isnt enough to keep firing in this hand(but offcourse this is part off my strategy porflop and every one can make his onw strategy)
Also i dont think an Ah8h who float the flop with A high and backdoor flush will fold know that he hit the flushdraw,in fact some oponets will raise a lot here,so the 7h for our rangue is bad(only impruve backdoors and some doubles and sets) and for our current hand is even worse because he can have the flushdraw and we can face a raise turn.
 
Debi

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The problem with checking is that you have a decent draw. With two overcards and a gutshot straight draw, you have 10 outs to a likely-best hand. But if you check, you’re just going to have to fold facing a bet.
Betting gives you a chance to pick this pot up at the turn, and means you’ll at least get to see the river unless your opponent raises. What hands are we trying to get him to fold? Mainly ace-high. Plenty of hands like Ah8h and AcTc will call pre-flop and then call this flop, but are likely to fold to further aggression on the turn.
I dont agree with this statement in the ebook,this 7h is a total blank that only inpruve some backdoors(backdoor flush and backdoor strait draw) so a hand made like A9 or a middle pokect pair like 88 who are bloquing some off this draws will never fold here and we cant allwais count with our overcards becasue some off them can give our oponent a second pair that would make us bet againg river and louse a lot more, so when im on this spot i allwais count on the equity off my draw and that isnt enough to keep firing in this hand(but offcourse this is part off my strategy porflop and every one can make his onw strategy)
Also i dont think an Ah8h who float the flop with A high and backdoor flush will fold know that he hit the flushdraw,in fact some oponets will raise a lot here,so the 7h for our rangue is bad(only impruve backdoors and some doubles and sets) and for our current hand is even worse because he can have the flushdraw and we can face a raise turn.

Interesting - let's see what Collin thinks about your views on this situation.
 
Collin Moshman

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The problem with checking is that you have a decent draw. With two overcards and a gutshot straight draw, you have 10 outs to a likely-best hand. But if you check, you’re just going to have to fold facing a bet.
Betting gives you a chance to pick this pot up at the turn, and means you’ll at least get to see the river unless your opponent raises. What hands are we trying to get him to fold? Mainly ace-high. Plenty of hands like Ah8h and AcTc will call pre-flop and then call this flop, but are likely to fold to further aggression on the turn.
I dont agree with this statement in the ebook,this 7h is a total blank that only inpruve some backdoors(backdoor flush and backdoor strait draw) so a hand made like A9 or a middle pokect pair like 88 who are bloquing some off this draws will never fold here and we cant allwais count with our overcards becasue some off them can give our oponent a second pair that would make us bet againg river and louse a lot more, so when im on this spot i allwais count on the equity off my draw and that isnt enough to keep firing in this hand(but offcourse this is part off my strategy porflop and every one can make his onw strategy)
Also i dont think an Ah8h who float the flop with A high and backdoor flush will fold know that he hit the flushdraw,in fact some oponets will raise a lot here,so the 7h for our rangue is bad(only impruve backdoors and some doubles and sets) and for our current hand is even worse because he can have the flushdraw and we can face a raise turn.

I definitely agree with your point Freddy that if our opponent has a hand as strong as A9, 88, or the nut flush draw, there's almost no chance they're folding. We shouldn't target those hands for sure. But he'll frequently be much weaker. What if instead he has AJ or KdQd here? In that case, your bet will usually succeed in getting a fold,

While it would be a mistake to bluff all the time here (or bluff ever against a total calling station!), this particular hand is a good one to fire against most opposition. You don't want to check-fold the draw; your hand has very little showdown value unimproved; and many better hands such as ace-high and king-high (that aren't now good draws) are likely to fold.
 
Collin Moshman

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The topic is very useful, requiring skills development.
The rule of betting on the turn is very effective.
www.cardschat.com/replayer/724COflhU
I liked the river betting rule: play aggressively on the river!
www.cardschat.com/replayer/724CO7RDH
The knowledge and ability to apply the rules of the game in the later streets greatly expands the possibilities of winning a hand.


I would fold the 87o pre-flop, but otherwise these are nicely played hands that illustrate the turn and river concepts well. Good job!
 
johnnylawford

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The two questions I've always seen asked on when and why to bet on early or late streets are:

1. What do they call with that's worse? (for value)
2. What do they fold that's better? (for a bluff)

I think you covered these two questions well in this chapter!
 
Katie Dozier

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The two questions I've always seen asked on when and why to bet on early or late streets are:

1. What do they call with that's worse? (for value)
2. What do they fold that's better? (for a bluff)

I think you covered these two questions well in this chapter!


Great to hear, thanks! :)
 
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