I like too much having mathematic infos as support for decisions and they can be easier.
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.....When I get a pocket pair, how many chances do I have to hit a set on flop? I know a very easy way to get this information, multiply your outs for how many cards on board you expect, then multiply for 2 and you will find a percentage close that you want to find.
.....For example, You get 22, so if you multiply "2 outs x 3 cards on flop x 2% of each card on board" you will have as result the number "12", it means your 22 hits a set on flop close to 12% of flops.
.....Let's suppose you have 22 but flop is A93 rainbow, you want to know what is your chance of setting on turn, you multiply "2 outs x 1 card on turn x 2%", it is 4% . When you have to call a all in pre-flop, you multiply "2 outs x 5 cards of all streets on board x 2%" you will find 20%. So I guess it was already possible understand it.
.....You can use that information to match with pot odds for calculating equity, but in most cases you will need to use implied odds, it means you have to match 1)how many chances for a set hero has, 2)how many chips hero has, 3)how many chips villain has, 4)how many chips you can make villain put in the table when you hits you value.
.....For value, playing pocket pairs needs to obey some conditions 1) A pocket pair sets close to 12% of flops, 2) The sum of chips that hero puts on the table have to be at most 12% of himself stack, 3)The stack of vilain have to be at least 100% of a 12% of chips placed in the pot for hero. 4) Hero needs to be able to getting extract the expected chips of the villain.
.....For example, Hero has 30bb with 22, vilain with 10bb raises to 2,5bb. should I have to pay it? Let's see... 100/12 = 8,33 and 2,5bb x 8 = 20, One conditional for hero playing this pocket pair is hero have to gain at least 20bb of the villain, he has 10bb so your mathematic decision is fold, being the villain have just 10bb.
.....I learn a lot with that, I hope it can help a lot of beginners here.

This isn't how you calculate the percentage of the times you hit a set on the flop. It will give you a 'reasonable' estimate, but it would probably just be better to remember your odds of improving.

Originally Posted by vinnie

This isn't how you calculate the percentage of the times you hit a set on the flop. It will give you a 'reasonable' estimate, but it would probably just be better to remember your odds of improving.

This can be used in any hand, but I have ilustrated with pockets because many people ask about it. If you have A2, how is your chance of hitting an ace on flop? A= 3 outs x 3 cards x 2% = about 18% on flop and 30% regarding all streets (not wall street... why do I mention it?).
This can be used when yo want to know if you can call with expeculative cards or not.

Originally Posted by frnandoh

This can be used in any hand, but I have ilustrated with pockets because many people ask about it. If you have A2, how is your chance of hitting an ace on flop? A= 3 outs x 3 cards x 2% = about 18% on flop and 30% regarding all streets (not wall street... why do I mention it?).
This can be used when yo want to know if you can call with expeculative cards or not.

This is not the way to calculate the odds of hitting the flop.

Your odds of hitting an Ace on the flop are 1-(47*46*45)/(50*49*48). That is 17.27% of the time. The odds for hitting it on any street? 1-(47*46*45*44*43)/(50*49*48*47*46) = 27.6%. Sure, your method will give you an approximate idea, but the reasoning behind it is not correct and will cause issues when people try and reason about more complicated situations (the odds of flopping a flush draw, for example).

This becomes more apparent when talking about things like AK and hitting either card. You say 36% on the flop, the actual amount is 32.4%. Your method gives 60% across all streets. The actual number is 48.7%, which is a big difference. Your method consistently over-estimates flop equity.

good post Fernando, although I like playing more with players who do not know how to do this calculation, here in cc we have the calculator for anyone who wants to try other pairs or other positions, https://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-calculator.php

Just find this in play market! Looks pretty nice

Screenshot_2018-03-04-07-32-45-01.jpg

I try to understand it better but not super clear. Does someone else have a better method for playing percenages with pocket pairs

Hi Jaybizzi,

i obviously cannot speak for others but i use this link to calculate pot odds with pocket pairs..to be honest though my HUD software does this for me.

http://www.thepokerbank.com/tools/od.../pocket-pairs/

I am sure CC has its own information on this though and would recommend using that if relevant.

https://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-calculator.php




Regards

pirateglenn

Chris Ferguson wrote a book I read on poker math. That really gets in depth with the math and stats behind poker play. You may want to check it out. Good luck!