Hey guys I've been posting a lot In here because I been lost with the math side T_T

Anyway I was watching some poker after dark. You know with the amazing Durrr ( don't worry I know he has a LAG style and I'm still working on TAG)
But moving on I watching this one hand
Board: 6c8s3h
Hero: 7h2h
Villain: Kd3c

It said our hero had 21% (roughly) how they got that number is where I get confused. I tried using the hand odds thing. Like unseen cards to your outs. And the rule of 4 and 2 but it doesn't come out right.
So can anyone explain to me how they got it it would be great

Thanks for any replies

Originally Posted by Neko67

Hey guys I've been posting a lot In here because I been lost with the math side T_T

Anyway I was watching some poker after dark. You know with the amazing Durrr ( don't worry I know he has a LAG style and I'm still working on TAG)
But moving on I watching this one hand
Board: 6c8s3h
Hero: 7h2h
Villain: Kd3c

It said our hero had 21% (roughly) how they got that number is where I get confused. I tried using the hand odds thing. Like unseen cards to your outs. And the rule of 4 and 2 but it doesn't come out right.
So can anyone explain to me how they got it it would be great

Thanks for any replies

Its roughly 20.91% for hero

Hero has to hit 7 or a 2 or back door straight outs like 5 and a 9 or 5 and a 4.
so hero has 6 outs(a 7 or 2) and maybe equivalent of 1 or 2 with backdoor outs, but villain has redraws if hero hits a 7 villain can hit a King. so approx about 5 - 6 outs.

When you multiply by 5 x 4 ( 4 and 2 rule) works out about 20%.

When using rule of 4 and 2 its usually used when you have : -
2 overs (6 outs)
Up n down straight or double gutter (8outs)
Flush Draw (9) outs

PS on TV they sometimes get different answer to what you get with Poker calculators as they take into account folded cards by other players.

As you dont get to see folded cards Poker Calculators dont take them into account as you cant enter what you can't see

Originally Posted by rhombus

Its roughly 20.91% for hero

Hero has to hit 7 or a 2 or back door straight outs like 5 and a 9 or 5 and a 4.
so hero has 6 outs(a 7 or 2) and maybe equivalent of 1 or 2 with backdoor outs, but villain has redraws if hero hits a 7 villain can hit a King. so approx about 5 - 6 outs.

When you multiply by 5 x 4 ( 4 and 2 rule) works out about 20%.

When using rule of 4 and 2 its usually used when you have : -
2 overs (6 outs)
Up n down straight or double gutter (8outs)
Flush Draw (9) outs

PS on TV they sometimes get different answer to what you get with Poker calculators as they take into account folded cards by other players.

As you dont get to see folded cards Poker Calculators dont take them into account as you cant enter what you can't see

That makes more sense thanks but how can the 2 be an out because that still won't be beating the villain's bottom pair

Originally Posted by Neko67

That makes more sense thanks but how can the 2 be an out because that still won't be beating the villain's bottom pair

oops didnt realise they had hit their 3.

They do have a backdoor flush which adds around 4%
Backdoor straights 4 & 5, 5 & 9, 9 & Ten
a 7 and even runner runner 2 2

Not sure of the breakdown of above but they all add up

Cardshat has its own calcualtor and there are quite a few online although not sure if any breakdown the hand into all the backdoor equities

https://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-calculator.php

Also one of the members has a free equity calculator on his website

http://www.acepokersolutions.com/poker-calculator/

3 outs with a back door straight on the flop comes out to 4:1 against, so about 21%

Originally Posted by Sidetracked

3 outs with a back door straight on the flop comes out to 4:1 against, so about 21%

What are the outs for the backdoor straight?

Originally Posted by Neko67

What are the outs for the backdoor straight?

Somebody asked similar question before in this thread

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/lear...t-odds-213423/

and they gave a link to site below which says
backdoor flush is 1 in 24
Backdoor Flush (5s6s Flop 7sAh9c KsJs) 4 1 chance in 24
Runner Runner straight 1 in 68
Runner Runner Straight (56 Flop 3TQ 47) 1.5 1 chance in 68

http://www.expss.com/poker/probab.htm

79% of cards corresponds villain means 21% corresponds to the hero. Mathematics is easy

Originally Posted by miric007

79% of cards corresponds villain means 21% corresponds to the hero. Mathematics is easy

how do you get 79% for villain

Originally Posted by rhombus

how do you get 79% for villain

37 outs for villain gives him a 79% chance of winning and 8 outs for hero gives him a 21% chance of winning.Do you understand now?

Originally Posted by miric007

37 outs for villain gives him a 79% chance of winning and 8 outs for hero gives him a 21% chance of winning.Do you understand now?

no

Originally Posted by miric007

37 outs for villain gives him a 79% chance of winning and 8 outs for hero gives him a 21% chance of winning.Do you understand now?

Wasn't like 5 outs? Because the 4 and 2 rule gives apprx 21%

wow, this poker math thing is really a headache.
I have a simple solution to this, if you're not the nuts, fold.
hehehe
Peace!

If I'm 20% to hit the lotto today, and 20% to hit the lotto tomorrow, does that make me 40% to hit the lotto. I think not. This math is wrong made right.

wait... im not sure about this but please correct me if im wrong....

one deck has 52 cards.... i have 2 hole cards that i see...
if the flop is out, that's an added 3 cards... so i now see 5 cards that leaves me with 47 unknown cards.
if at that point i have 9 outs, does it mean my odds of hitting my outs will be 9/47=19.15%?
and if the turn is shown, there will be 46 unknown cards left which will put my odds at 9/46 = 19.57%?
just wondering if this makes sense.

Originally Posted by Steve_StudAA

If I'm 20% to hit the lotto today, and 20% to hit the lotto tomorrow, does that make me 40% to hit the lotto. I think not. This math is wrong made right.

If you are 20% to win the lottery either today Im buying a ticket LOL

PS its 36% to hit on at least one of the 2 days

Originally Posted by johnny tigre

wait... im not sure about this but please correct me if im wrong....

one deck has 52 cards.... i have 2 hole cards that i see...
if the flop is out, that's an added 3 cards... so i now see 5 cards that leaves me with 47 unknown cards.
if at that point i have 9 outs, does it mean my odds of hitting my outs will be 9/47=19.15%?
and if the turn is shown, there will be 46 unknown cards left which will put my odds at 9/46 = 19.57%?
just wondering if this makes sense.

correct on both for percentages

If you want to calculate it in odds its Bad Cards divided by Good Cards
So in your flush draw on the flop 47 unknown. There are 38 Bad Cards and 9 good cards ( your flush outs)
Odds are 38/9 ~ 4.222 to 1

Originally Posted by rhombus

correct on both for percentages

If you want to calculate it in odds its Bad Cards divided by Good Cards
So in your flush draw on the flop 47 unknown. There are 38 Bad Cards and 9 good cards ( your flush outs)
Odds are 38/9 ~ 4.222 to 1

Okay now i get it.
Thanks rhombus for the bad card good card ratio.

Originally Posted by Steve_StudAA

If I'm 20% to hit the lotto today, and 20% to hit the lotto tomorrow, does that make me 40% to hit the lotto. I think not. This math is wrong made right.

Here's how you figure this: your probability of hitting is 0.2 for each day. However, these events aren't mutually exclusive since you might hit on both days.

Pr(both)= 0.2 X 0.2= 0.04
Pr(each day)= 0.2
Pr(hit)= 0.2 + 0.2 - 0.04= 0.36 or 36%

Event A OR Event B means add probabilities.
Event A AND Event B means multiply probabilities.

If the events aren't mutually exclusive then subtract the probability that both occur from the sum of the individual probabilities.

Originally Posted by rhombus

correct on both for percentages

If you want to calculate it in odds its Bad Cards divided by Good Cards
So in your flush draw on the flop 47 unknown. There are 38 Bad Cards and 9 good cards ( your flush outs)
Odds are 38/9 ~ 4.222 to 1

OMG your a god. I've been so confused on how a flush draw gave odds of 4-1 and not 5-1. See I kept seeing and hearing it was unknown to known cards. So like there is 47 cards left that won't help and 9 that will. But I didn't know you also have to take 9 out from the 47. Thanks so much <3

Originally Posted by Neko67

OMG your a god. I've been so confused on how a flush draw gave odds of 4-1 and not 5-1. See I kept seeing and hearing it was unknown to known cards. So like there is 47 cards left that won't help and 9 that will. But I didn't know you also have to take 9 out from the 47. Thanks so much <3

your welcome
the 4-1 and 5-1 you mentioned, you are probably getting confused between odds and probabilities.

The probability is 9 flush cards out of 47 cards remaining which is approximately 1 in 5.

I used to struggle with this and the best example is rolling a dice.
to roll a 6 is 1 out of 6 (probability) or 5 to 1 odds

to roll a 5 or 6 is 2 out of 6 or 1 in 3(probability) and the odds are
bad dice (4) divided by good dice (2) 4/2 is 2 to 1

if I also use the out but I think the best thing is to lean on some software for poker is what everyone uses to improve their game

Originally Posted by rhombus

If you are 20% to win the lottery either today Im buying a ticket LOL

PS its 36% to hit on at least one of the 2 days

No I'm 20% today, and again tomorrow I'm 20%. My odds never go above 20%.

Originally Posted by Steve_StudAA

No I'm 20% today, and again tomorrow I'm 20%. My odds never go above 20%.

you didn't read my reply properly

I said you was 36% to win on one of the 2 days not 36% to win on an individual day

Originally Posted by ludomaniaco24

if I also use the out but I think the best thing is to lean on some software for poker is what everyone uses to improve their game

free equity calculator here : -


http://www.acepokersolutions.com/poker-calculator/

Thanks for the input calculator output is a good tool

Is for the possibility of making a ladder but everything depends on the last two cards since the villain has a pair of 3 while the hero has the possibility to make a short or a long ladder