Luck vs. Luck -- what we notice/not notice

[IADaveMark]

We often talk about how lucky someone (including ourselves) got because they "sucked out on" someone. For example, a common situation of hitting a 2-outer on the river. They literally had a 5% chance—1 in 20—to get there. Yeah, it happens. (Oddly, about 5% of the time, right?)

However, it is just as "lucky" to fade 20 people who had 2-outers against you. If you had 20 people who had that 5% (1 in 20) chance and none of them hit it, it is statistically just as "lucky". One of those 20 people should have hit based on the same application of statistics.

Did we "suck out on" the room because none of the 20 hit their 5% on us? Do we go home afterwards and say, "yeah, I got really lucky because I had 2-outters on 26 different people and none of them hit? Probably not.

The reason that we don't think of it that way is because it is so spread out. The situations themselves would very likely only come up over many hours and hundreds of hands. What's more, we attribute "luck" to either single events or a very tight series of events. Things that are connected in a recognizable way.

The other thing that kicks in is Negativity Bias. We remember negative events more strongly than positive ones. So we remember people sucking out on us more than we remember sucking out on others. This was kind of part of what Mike McDermott said in rounders:

In "Confessions of a Winning Poker Player," Jack King said, "Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems, but every player can remember with remarkable accuracy the outstanding tough beats of his career." It seems true to me, cause walking in here, I can hardly remember how I built my bankroll, but I can't stop thinking of how I lost it.

Now apply that to the bad beats above.

Something to try to remember. Helps keep you off tilt if you can just recognize that "feces occurs."

 

[maestro121920]

awesome take, can't agree with you more

 

[YenRodriguez]

negativity bias, that seems to me the key word. we always remember the bad and we do not remember that the variance also gives us to win
this is an excellent note. Greetings

 

[IADaveMark]

negativity bias, that seems to me the key word. we always remember the bad and we do not remember that the variance also gives us to win
this is an excellent note. Greetings

There are all sorts of cognitive biases that are frequent in life but certainly more magnified in poker. Negativity bias is an easy one. Everything from sunk cost fallacy (specifically, the Loss Aversion part) to ambiguity effect to a ton of the ones we use in "reading" people. [cue Poker Brat and his "white magic"]

Another one relevant to the "luck" topic is Appeal to Probability. i.e. "I was ahead, therefore I should be guaranteed to win!"

I should do an entire thread on psychology and poker. Not in the way that Zachary Elwood does on tells and whatnot, but more from a "how to we screw up our own perceptions/actions" direction.

Anyway, thanks for your comment.

 

[DaveE]

Well put OP :top:

I used to tilt in the past after multiple 'bad beats'. After getting my head around perception biases I just shrug and move on.

 

[VikyGia]

Hi

Luck is just something invented by players, this is probabilities, however anything is possible in poker.

 

[IADaveMark]

Luck is just something invented by players, this is probabilities, however anything is possible in poker.

Back when I was a kid (like during the Civil War or something), I remember hearing something in Scouts.

"Luck is where opportunity meets preparedness."

​

That sums up poker. Yes, there's randomness out there, but how do you manage that situation before, during, and after? In your favor? Against you?​

 

[Skot_Gy]

This is a great topic.
I guess many of us knows (or at least hunches) these assertions are correct, BUT not many of us have the discipline and mindcontrol to always focus and play by these assertions.
That's where the difference is made.