Limp or raise?

[Boston1993]

M Theory.

Sorry I don't really know.

I understand M in theory (I think) but don't really apply it yet . But isn't that based on the opponents stack size ? Not too sure that is relevant here

I have a super player that has been guiding me and being a junior player, I am yet to understand what it means. I hear BB, SB, position, etc. over and over. Maybe eventually I'll pick up on it. My problem is 72 years old and trying to play my hand and figure out what others are doing just doesn't cut it. My fast thinking has come and gone. I've won hands and not know how. Since I don't know what hole cards the others have, I play what I have in front of me to best I can. As far as the 99 hole cards you were replying to, I usually limp in to get a flop for a set. Don't happen often. If the flop is trash and I don't get my set, then based on bets around the table I usually raise a little. Have the good day and good luck on the felts.

 

[cardplayer52]

You got 17BBs with a hand like 99 I think you can justify an open shove. With 2 limpers I think you should be shoving alot wider than 99 here. If you raise here you definatly commit yourself to the pot with the 1st limper and maybe commit to the pot period. I don't think in terms of "M" as I play STTs but think anything less than 20"M" and your not looking at any type of post flop play. And fold equity means the amount you gain by having someone fold a hand that had a good chance of beating you. eg one of the blinds may fold a hand like JTo that has ~50% equity vs your 99, so by shoving you gain that equity everytime he fold what could of been a winning hand.

 

[only_bridge]

This confuses me - if you are all in, how can you have any sort of equity? Surely your fate is completely in the hands of the other players, and the cards...

If everyone folds you win the pot uncontested.
This is called fold equity.
If someone calls we can win the pot in a showdown. This is called showdown equity.
In this particular hand we will be happy with just picking up the pot right here, uncontested, if everyone folds.
And at the same time our hand is strong enough to have decent showdown value vs hands that might call us.

 

[NoWuckingFurries]

OK, thanks for the clarification. My main reason for preferring a shove here is that 99 will often flop a higher card, but a shove will hopefully push out a lot of people that might hit something better on the flop.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Shove > Limp > Raise

Figures the 'cash game' players are suggesting to raise here... I say this a bad play... there's 20% of your stack out there on the table... just put the pile in. If you get called by LP or blinds you might be flipping which is obviously okay (if they're ahead... oh well).

 

[ThunderPT]

Shove > Limp > Raise

Figures the 'cash game' players are suggesting to raise here... I say this a bad play... there's 20% of your stack out there on the table... just put the pile in. If you get called by LP or blinds you might be flipping which is obviously okay (if they're ahead... oh well).

What hand would call a raise to 300 that wouldn't call a shove? I don't think you gain that much fold equity to make it up for the extra chips you're risking. If you raise to 5BB, you can still get away with an M of 8 if you see a 3bet and a 4 bet behind you.

I'm not saying shoving isn't a positive equity play, but with an M of 11 I'd still prefer the raise.

 

[jho]

hmm i feel like it's still early and with lots of players I would rather limp in that situation and try to hit the set. i feel like there are some potential dangerous limpers such as JJ-AA and any overcard beats a pair of 9s. but if i felt the table was soft and i could steal it preflop with a strong raise, that would be a strong 1b option for me.

 

[ThunderPT]

i feel like there are some potential dangerous limpers such as JJ-AA and any overcard beats a pair of 9s.

No way. Open limping with aces is a nice play when you're deep, are in early position (at least 7 players yet to act behind you) and someone in late position or the blinds is aggressive and likely to attack the blinds with a big raise to which you'd then come over the top. Here the first limper has an M of 10 and is in a very loose-passive table (I'm assuming the second value in the HUD is the preflop raise %), open limping is just going to create a chain of limpers and he'd find himself going to the flop with 3 or 4 other players. And you wouldn't make this play with JJ-KK.
Besides, the first limper is a fish himself, so we couldn't give him credit for trying this play. He could, though, be the type of fish that would simply never raise preflop, so in that sense he could have an overpair... but those would just be like 5% of the hands he could have there so...

I didn't talk about the second limper because the key one is always the first one, the other who come along usually have speculative hands, the second limper would have raised for sure with AA-JJ.

 

[okeedokalee]

You have to shut the limpers out and try and take the pot immediately.Nines are too weak to withstand multiple limpers.Raise all-in!

 

[NoWuckingFurries]

Here the first limper has an M of 10 and is in a very loose-passive table (I'm assuming the second value in the HUD is the preflop raise %)

Correct.

 

[Weregoat]

Limp man.. there's caller's beside you.. especially when people in the table tends to limp, it's difficult to judge..and the flop might not help you.. maybe raise when you get 10 10 s up ..goodluck

I disagree. There is next to no difference between 99 and TT here, they are both a pocket pair that isn't going to perform well on a board with overs.

Our choices are:
1. Fold - this is an atrocious play here. Given the people in the hand (high VPIP, low PFR), we can assume they are loose passive, and folding 6th best PP here is bad against such villains, who are likely going to check/call with anything less than Tp.

2. Call - Similarly atrocious, we shift our plan from playing a pot aggressively with a big hand to hoping to flop a set in a small pot. Bad. Very bad!

3. Raise - Punish the limpers with 68/8 stats. Are you serious? 99 is way ahead of 68% of his hands, or even the bottom 60% of their ranges since they didn't raise preflop. I'm certain 99 is on the top 8% of hands, so we know we're ahead of at least this villain. We raise here, take control of the hand, and possibly win 3-4 BBs without seeing a flop.

Raise here. Unless your stack is super short. In which case, raise here.

- WG