Lets Talk about Aces

[pirateglenn]

So - ask yourself, how many times in your poker career have you been the guy or girl with KK, short stacked, maybe on the bubble and you pick up that monster pair and think - ive a great chance for a double up here or better, i just need to avoid that Ace...

Well here is some maths for you to consider.

In any 9 handed game of No limit, there is a 83% chance any player is dealt an ace.

If you are dealt an ace - there is a 69% chance another player has one too (again based on 9 players).

If you are not dealt an ace - theres an 80% chance another players has been dealt one.

And dont forget - theres a 15% chance of being dealt an ace in any texas hold em game. Food for thought for those who want to extract max value from QQ/KK! No wonder so many people just jam pre flop on KK

 

[eetenor]

So - ask yourself, how many times in your poker career have you been the guy or girl with KK, short stacked, maybe on the bubble and you pick up that monster pair and think - ive a great chance for a double up here or better, i just need to avoid that Ace...

Well here is some maths for you to consider.

In any 9 handed game of No limit, there is a 83% chance any player is dealt an ace.

If you are dealt an ace - there is a 69% chance another player has one too (again based on 9 players).

If you are not dealt an ace - theres an 80% chance another players has been dealt one.

And dont forget - theres a 15% chance of being dealt an ace in any texas hold em game. Food for thought for those who want to extract max value from QQ/KK! No wonder so many people just jam pre flop on KK

Thank you for posting


I know it is a gut punch to get Greensteined- Ace on the river- but when we act to avoid that feeling we are costing ourselves money and lots of it.

What is the frequency of AX making a pair?
What is the equity that KK has versus the best Ax hand AKs? 67.68%
That means when AX calls preflop we will win 67$ out of every 100$ wagered. We put in 50$ they put in 50$-Ten times- total wagered 1000$ we get 670$ they get 330$ We want Ax to call in 99% of situations preflop. Only in FT huge ICM spots do we want AX to fold

Also when we do shove and get called by Ax it is the range of Ax that is 6% better vs us than the worst part of the range so we are lowering our over all win rate vs AX.

As we gain skill playing poker we learn that our skill advantage is highest post flop that is where we can win more than the raw equity of our hand preflop and lose less.

Why also would we want to shove preflop because one of our 8 Villains has an Ax when we will be getting 88-22 to fold as well as the AX?

NL is not about winning any 1 hand when we have KK it is about winning the most chips. So if we shove KK it would be because we expect all AX to call not fold. If we knew a V had Ax we would flat KK if we thought they would fold. Then outplay them post flop.


Hope this helps

 

[TeUnit]

Doyle would tell you "Aces are a great hand for winning a small pot, or losing a big one".

 

[slothi]

Thanks for this statistical help
If you add experiences with playing KK it could be a hand you are more afraid of than the opponents
But for me as a small stack it is still a push-hand

 

[Dan Perkins]

I alwys slowplay the aces until the turn is this not a good strategy

 

[ROYALROAD]

I always tell myself, "A is also just a card."
However, the reality is not so easy.

 

[nutself]

With Aces in the hole, it is better to raise to thin the field, because aces that don't improve on flop will do well shorthanded. If lots of players stay on the flop, aces would be in danger.

 

[marvinsytan]

So - ask yourself, how many times in your poker career have you been the guy or girl with KK, short stacked, maybe on the bubble and you pick up that monster pair and think - ive a great chance for a double up here or better, i just need to avoid that Ace...

Well here is some maths for you to consider.

In any 9 handed game of No limit, there is a 83% chance any player is dealt an ace.

If you are dealt an ace - there is a 69% chance another player has one too (again based on 9 players).

If you are not dealt an ace - theres an 80% chance another players has been dealt one.

And dont forget - theres a 15% chance of being dealt an ace in any texas hold em game. Food for thought for those who want to extract max value from QQ/KK! No wonder so many people just jam pre flop on KK

Interesting, thanks for posting, didn't know about this just until now

will always put this in my mind when I have KK

Happy Holidays Y'All

 

[Piligrin66]

As soon as you get two aces, you should immediately show aggression in the trade, no matter what position you play from. Indeed, you've got some good cards in your hand, so why let other players come to the flop for free? Raise your bets and let them pay you to see the flop cards! Thus, you will only increase your chances of luck.

 

[Luvepoker]

If you are dealt an ace - there is a 69% chance another player has one too (again based on 9 players).

Your info is something many players dont know and its good you place it out there. So many times people will bemoan there bad luck just not realizing the true percentages something happens.

I cant find the info I used to have but I thing this one % is wrong. You maybe correct but are you sure that's the correct amount of time it will happen. It happens more than people know but I thought the percentage was something like 38% or so it happening.



Can you please just check this one if you can and have the info available? I'm happy to admit when I am wrong but not sure I am and just want to know one way or the other.

Sorry, Just a math nerd here. LOL

 

[pirateglenn]

No problem- will check.

Your info is something many players dont know and its good you place it out there. So many times people will bemoan there bad luck just not realizing the true percentages something happens.

I cant find the info I used to have but I thing this one % is wrong. You maybe correct but are you sure that's the correct amount of time it will happen. It happens more than people know but I thought the percentage was something like 38% or so it happening.



Can you please just check this one if you can and have the info available? I'm happy to admit when I am wrong but not sure I am and just want to know one way or the other.

Sorry, Just a math nerd here. LOL

I will come back to you on this

 

[1nsomn1a]

I only know that KK is a very strong hand, but all hands lose sometime, it is impossible to predict the cases when the opponent will have aces, it is impossible to predict the ace on the River, so you should not spend a lot of thoughts on it, but just think about a long-term winning strategy.

 

[aissam18]

To be honest i hate AA cuz i always lose with them

 

[Luvepoker]

To be honest i hate AA cuz i always lose with them

So have you ever asked yourself why I lose so often with them? I have know friends say this and once they showed me how they played than hands I could understand why they lost so often.

We should only lose 1 time in 6 with aces in a all in situation. If we get to the flop there are many more ways to lose but we should still win way more often than loses.

One of the most game changing things that improved my play long term was not to ask why I am losing but what could I be doing that is causing so much loss in this situation.

 

[pirateglenn]

https://www.thepokerbank.com/tools/odds-charts/ace-odds/

So with 9 players at the table, if i am dealt an Ace - theres a 69% chance that another player has an ace too. I am not a maths nerd so feel free to look into this stat more and correct the information if this is incorrect.

 

[pwalker4201977]

So I like Aces but I don’t like to play with more than 2 or maybe 3 during the hand. The less players in the hand the better I think.

 

[Edgerik]

Since poker is a game with a lot of variance, with a pair of AA you win or lose, the bad thing is that with this hand you either win a lot or lose a lot.

 

[Negan92222]

Thank you for posting


I know it is a gut punch to get Greensteined- Ace on the river- but when we act to avoid that feeling we are costing ourselves money and lots of it.

What is the frequency of AX making a pair?
What is the equity that KK has versus the best Ax hand AKs? 67.68%
That means when AX calls preflop we will win 67$ out of every 100$ wagered. We put in 50$ they put in 50$-Ten times- total wagered 1000$ we get 670$ they get 330$ We want Ax to call in 99% of situations preflop. Only in FT huge ICM spots do we want AX to fold

Also when we do shove and get called by Ax it is the range of Ax that is 6% better vs us than the worst part of the range so we are lowering our over all win rate vs AX.

As we gain skill playing poker we learn that our skill advantage is highest post flop that is where we can win more than the raw equity of our hand preflop and lose less.

Why also would we want to shove preflop because one of our 8 Villains has an Ax when we will be getting 88-22 to fold as well as the AX?

NL is not about winning any 1 hand when we have KK it is about winning the most chips. So if we shove KK it would be because we expect all AX to call not fold. If we knew a V had Ax we would flat KK if we thought they would fold. Then outplay them post flop.


Hope this helps

Alot to think about here pal but thanks

 

[AKQ]

I always fold weak aces and often fold ax suited
Ax gets people in more trouble than its worth imo

 

[Phoenix Wright]

So - ask yourself, how many times in your poker career have you been the guy or girl with KK, short stacked, maybe on the bubble and you pick up that monster pair and think - ive a great chance for a double up here or better, i just need to avoid that Ace...

Well here is some maths for you to consider.

In any 9 handed game of No limit, there is a 83% chance any player is dealt an ace.

If you are dealt an ace - there is a 69% chance another player has one too (again based on 9 players).

If you are not dealt an ace - theres an 80% chance another players has been dealt one.

And dont forget - theres a 15% chance of being dealt an ace in any texas hold em game. Food for thought for those who want to extract max value from QQ/KK! No wonder so many people just jam pre flop on KK

These statistics are true, but we could also look at it this way:

With them holding one Ace, there is one less Ace in the deck for them to draw, so they are less likely to pair the Ace.

Additionally, someone could easily fold an Ace preflop too. One TAG player UTG would easily fold a hand like A9s and even a MP reg would know to fold A2o often. The chance of someone having an Ace preflop is not identical to someone having an Ace AND it pairing up before showdown