How does my EV drop when my range doesn't have enough bluffs?

[gbondonno]

So I understand how if my, say, raise range is too packed with bluffs in relation to my bet size I can get exploited by calling, but I cant understand how does my EV drop when my range is too full of value cards and not enough bluffs. I get that I could be profiting more and am not bluffing enough, but I can't quite put it in a formula.

 

[fundiver199]

If people figure out, you are almost never bluffing, then they can adjust by folding all their bluff catchers, and then your big hands dont get paid. The key statement here of course is, "if people figure out". In large online player pools in microstakes or freerolls, that is rarely going to be an issue, at least not if we are talking about rare spots like raising on the river.

But if you only 3-bet AA and KK preflop, then you will show up as someone with a 1% 3-bet on peoples HUDs, and people can exploit you by not giving your 3-bets action. If of course HUDs are allowed, and you play regularly against the same people allowing them to collect a large enough sample.

 

[Redman1902]

Not making your opponent fold hands that have some equity vs. your bluffs is the reason why your EV would drop.

 

[NWPatriot]

There are different flavors of EV being talked about here.

The EV of a specific decision is based on our equity (both showdown and fold equity). So in order to have the most EV, we need more equity. By including bluffs in our range, our equity will be lower, so our decision level EV will be less.

DecisionEV = ($pot x foldfreq) + ($wonSD x %Equity) - ($lostSD x (1-%equity))​

When we talk about ranges and frequencies, we are now talking about a strategy EV. A bluffing range serves to increase our frequencies of a bet/raise/call, which reduces the very negative EV of the folds. Our image and long game strategies are harder to put into numbers, but it might look like this:

StrategyEV = (%FreqCalls x EVcalls) + (%FreqBetsRaises x EVbetraise) - (%freqfold x EVFold)
Obviously these 3 frequencies must add up to 100%.​

Most EV calculations assess the merits of our current action, rather than a complete strategy. If you are to try and use EV on a strategy, I recommend that for these EV numbers you should use the entire impact on your stack so that the negative results of overfolding will be properly included.

Good luck and God bless.