This is a discussion on Is counting outs a fallacy? Why? within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; My thoughts:
I appreciate the relevance of outs (to an extent) when (semi)bluffing but to say I have an X% chance of winning due to
I appreciate the relevance of outs (to an extent) when (semi)bluffing but to say I have an X% chance of winning due to my X outs is beyond inaccurate and inconsistent.
Poker is a game of imperfect information. Counting outs assumes perfect information.
Deducting two in case you're double counting is questionable because double counting itself is another fallacy so you're essentially strengthening the reasoning for your fallacy based on principals of another fallacy.
My reasoning for this being a fallacy is strengthened by the fact that all decisions (in an mtt/mtsng) are influenced by either ICM/$EV/CEV/FUTURE CEV so regardless of the number of outs you have if the decision is not favoured by the above considerations then the play is incorrect.
Allow me to demonstrate.
We are 7 handed at a final table.
7th place is guaranteed 300, first place is guaranteed 2900.
Stacks are as follows.
1. 800,000 -Villain
2. 680,000 - You
Blinds are 5K/10K
You have KsTs villain has 22 on a QsJs4h board. 80K in the pot. Villain ships it and shows you his cards face.
What do you do? Why?
What are your thoughts on the topic? Why?
For those of you that will troll this question, please take time to consider it in your own time after you are done trolling and hopefully come back and express your thoughts.
Maybe ICM could make you fold, but you have so many outs that I can't see how that would be the best decision. You have more than 60% chance of hitting, and you'll be a big favorite to win it all if you take this pot.
I ran this scenario against the CardsChat poker odds calculator and actually came up with a 72% chance of winning the hand.
Poker Odds Calculator from CardsChat.com Texas Holdem: 100,000 sampled boards containing Player 1 ( ): 72.47% lose 27.53% tie 0% EV 0.72 Player 2 ( ): 27.53% lose 72.47% tie 0% EV 0.28
If your object is to slowly blind out in the hopes of picking up a few more places then by all means fold.
If your objective is to take down first then you need to call. Winning this hands puts you at roughly 124 BBs with the nearest opponent at 24 BBs and the total chips your opponents possess being about 87 BBs. You would be dominating not only the closest opponent, but the entire table combined!