65-80% ahead should I be folding

supernuts25

supernuts25

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Dec 30, 2008
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Hi all
So I’m tourneys I find myself getting knocked out constantly deep due to calling an all in being ahead.
I stay out of all in as much as possible to try and control where I’m getting it all in , in my favor.
But I get a read or just make a good call to aggressive player. And pop they get lucky and off I go.
Even though being a favorite should I just fold here.
Thanks all
 
Collin Moshman

Collin Moshman

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There are times when you can be a 70% or so favorite to win against your opponent's range and still be correct to fold, but they're rare -- mainly when you're playing satellites or you're very mid-stacked with big pay jumps.

Unless those above exceptions are mainly where you're talking about, my best advice would just be to stay patient and know that in the long term you'll do very well getting your money in consistently that far ahead of your opponents :)
 
F

fundiver199

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You are almost certainly suffering from selective memory. It feels more bad to get knocked out of a tournament, than it feels good to chip up. And also when you win with the best hand, your expectations are just met, so you dont even appreciate it or accept the fact, you got lucky. You only had 70% equity, but you realised 100%, so you ran above expectations. But this is not, what you feel. You take it for granted.

However when the opponent turns his 30% into 100% on the river, and this knocks you out of the tournament, then emotionally all hell breaks lose. "How can this happen", "Its so unjust", "Why do those damn fish always get lucky" etc. Like 99% of poker players you feel, you "always" get unlucky, while the reality is almost certainly quite different. At least over a meaningfull sample. Because obvoiusly its quite possible to run bad for a day, a week or even a month, depending on how much you play.
 
Threshold2122

Threshold2122

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It happens to us all at some point or another but I am a fim believer that if you consistently get your money in good then you will win more times than you lose

We all remember the bad one's as they hurt a lot more than the good one's make us feel good it's all rose tinted glasses syndrome. When we get lucky we feel it's justified as we take a lot of beats and winning when ahead is sometimes more relief than elation however as someone in this thread has already alluded to when we take a bad beat it's the worst feeling in the world at that point and we are all sure the poker gods are against us.

Dust yourself off and continue to make good decisions you will win more than you lose
 
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