ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
I know I've posted this several times before, but I was thinking today while looking through stats, what percent of the time you need to place in order to make a profit at SnGs.

I play \$35 + \$3 6-seater SnGs with %65/%35 payout for 1st/2nd place.

If I were playing a winner-take-all tournament, it'd be an easy calculation:

say 10 games played:

X*228=380
(X is the number of times out of 10 you'd need to place)*(1st place's payout)=(total bought in + fees)

so solve for X, and we get:

X=380/228
=1 2/3

So to be safe, we say you need to place 1.7 times out of 10, or %17 of the time. So basically you have to place more often than 1 in 6 times to get a profit.

Now what happens when we get a 1-2 payout like in the 6-seaters I play?

No really, what happens??

Here's my attempt at calculating:

You would need Y times in 1st place to make a profit:

Y*136.5=380
Y=380/136.5
Y=2.78 (so roughly 2.8 times out of 10, %28, or 1 in 4 times)

You would need Z times in 2nd place to make a profit:

Z*73.5=380
Z=380/73.5
Z=5.17 (so roughly 5.2 times out of 10, %52, or 1 in 1.9 times)

So in order to find out what % we need ITM total (1st place and 2nd), do we average the Z and Y values?

(Y+Z)/2=(2.78+5.17)/2=3.975 or 4

so 4/10 times or %40?

This doesn't match my stats though; I'm getting a %35.86 ROI at the \$35 SnGs, and am still making a significant profit. Could this be because 4 of my 5 ITM placings are 1st and not 2nd?

I dunno; just rambling and trying to understand the math behind it.
Anyone see any errors or anywhere that I did something wrong, please point it out

JeeDub84

Visionary
Silver Level
All your calculations were the same as I came up with. Now you are right about seeing a larger profit margin with a smaller ROI% because of the majority of first place finishes rather than second. The only thing I see wrong is that 39.75% is the percentage ITM to break even including your fees to the site with an even percentage of 1st and 2nd place finishes. Now to see a real profit with this you need to raise your ITM% by several percent to see real profit coming in consistently over 100's of games.

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Exactly; that is the amount to break even - so basically you need anything above that to make a profit, and obviously the more the better.

It just clicked in my head; the 39.75 would be the break even for getting the same number of 1sts as 2nds. Thanks for the input JeeDub

JeeDub84

Visionary
Silver Level
Anytime Chuck and Thank you for all your help in the past wether it is know to you or not.

starfall

Visionary
Silver Level
The maths looks OK. What it illustrates is that if you get practiced at Heads-up play and get a greater proportion of 1st's rather than 2nds, then this will quickly increase your profits, and reduce the ITM% needed to be profitable... those first places are crucial, because (in this case) 2nd nets you just over your buy-in in profit, while 1st nets you nearly 3x your buy-in in profit, which is a huge difference, much more significant than it first appears if you look at the 65% share as less than double thte 35% share.