Yet another ITM% SnG thread

[ChuckTs]

I know I've posted this several times before, but I was thinking today while looking through stats, what percent of the time you need to place in order to make a profit at SnGs.

I play $35 + $3 6-seater SnGs with %65/%35 payout for 1st/2nd place.

If I were playing a winner-take-all tournament, it'd be an easy calculation:

say 10 games played:

X*228=380
(X is the number of times out of 10 you'd need to place)*(1st place's payout)=(total bought in + fees)

so solve for X, and we get:

X=380/228
=1 2/3

So to be safe, we say you need to place 1.7 times out of 10, or %17 of the time. So basically you have to place more often than 1 in 6 times to get a profit.

Now what happens when we get a 1-2 payout like in the 6-seaters I play?

No really, what happens??

Here's my attempt at calculating:

You would need Y times in 1st place to make a profit:

Y*136.5=380
Y=380/136.5
Y=2.78 (so roughly 2.8 times out of 10, %28, or 1 in 4 times)

You would need Z times in 2nd place to make a profit:

Z*73.5=380
Z=380/73.5
Z=5.17 (so roughly 5.2 times out of 10, %52, or 1 in 1.9 times)

So in order to find out what % we need ITM total (1st place and 2nd), do we average the Z and Y values?

(Y+Z)/2=(2.78+5.17)/2=3.975 or 4

so 4/10 times or %40?

This doesn't match my stats though; I'm getting a %35.86 ROI at the $35 SnGs, and am still making a significant profit. Could this be because 4 of my 5 ITM placings are 1st and not 2nd?

I dunno; just rambling and trying to understand the math behind it.
Anyone see any errors or anywhere that I did something wrong, please point it out

 

[JeeDub84]

All your calculations were the same as I came up with. Now you are right about seeing a larger profit margin with a smaller ROI% because of the majority of first place finishes rather than second. The only thing I see wrong is that 39.75% is the percentage ITM to break even including your fees to the site with an even percentage of 1st and 2nd place finishes. Now to see a real profit with this you need to raise your ITM% by several percent to see real profit coming in consistently over 100's of games.

 

[ChuckTs]

Exactly; that is the amount to break even - so basically you need anything above that to make a profit, and obviously the more the better.

It just clicked in my head; the 39.75 would be the break even for getting the same number of 1sts as 2nds. Thanks for the input JeeDub

 

[JeeDub84]

Anytime Chuck and Thank you for all your help in the past wether it is know to you or not.

 

[starfall]

The maths looks OK. What it illustrates is that if you get practiced at Heads-up play and get a greater proportion of 1st's rather than 2nds, then this will quickly increase your profits, and reduce the ITM% needed to be profitable... those first places are crucial, because (in this case) 2nd nets you just over your buy-in in profit, while 1st nets you nearly 3x your buy-in in profit, which is a huge difference, much more significant than it first appears if you look at the 65% share as less than double thte 35% share.