What percentage of poker players actually win

[F Paulsson]

I agree that there's a sampling bias in Zach's database, but I have to stress that even when we do manage to datamine objectively, the only thing our sample tells us is how many people are winning players for that period of time. But maybe that's what we're discussing. How many of the people currently playing are currently winning.

The real problem, and I took the liberty to check this logic with my math genius wife, is that the player base we're looking at isn't static. There's a shift in population, and I contend that the shift is overwhelmingly that random players enter, but losing players leave. In statistical terms, we're not sampling the same population every time. Therefore, our samples are not reliable.

A way to go about this, which would still contain some margin of error, is to datamine every table across all stakes for a longer period of time. That way, people don't get to move up or down (as Zach mentioned) and escape our proverbial net for when they finally stop playing.

 

[SavagePenguin]

I still have about a 65-35 distribution and I really don't believe that is true.

That's about what I'd have guessed, basing it on OPR stats I've seen. I've seen people in the low 60% rankings with losing records, and people in the upper 60%'s with winning records.

But it's not the most scientific way of determining it.

 

[cAPSLOCK]

But it's not the most scientific way of determining it.

That might be one of the LEAST scientific ways of determining it.

But I still hold to the thought that the main problem with the "60ish % of people in my logs are winners" suffers from "who ends up in the logs" syndrome.

 

[nateogreato]

I think 10% is high over the long run

From my personal perspective I play becasue the game is addictive. It's a tremendous amount of fun and more so becasue the money is real.

I've won money in freerolls that I've parlaed (sp?) into some decent stacks and then lost them. I even had a guy stake me once becasue he thought I was good enough to play his money. And, it worked out. I made him a few bucks and he shared a little with me (which I grew and then lost). This process took about two months and hundreds of hours of play.

My bankroll management skills are pretty good too. I played with a starting stack of $17.50 daily for over two months before I lost it. And it's not hard to figure out that I won exactly as much as I lost.

What's interesting is that the site I play at pays out ~1 point for each dollar it takes in in rake. I've earned 131.94 points over the last two months. So rough calculation I payed a little less than $132 to the site and $1319 has passed through my hands. 10 days ago I had $100. I kept playing and now my only choice is go back to freerolls or make a deposit.

The best reason to play poker is that it is an irreplaceable thrill. But I don't think it's profitable for many of the players at all. Even me, and I personally, think I am great!

 

[indiana]

Here you go based on some data

 

[LarryT503]

I agree, the winning percentage is very low, but I bet the number actually earning a living wage playing is well below 1%. I would love to be in that 1%, but I certainly won't stake my financial well being on it.

 

[jordanbillie]

I can tell you that from dealing, I see a very low % of players that are ahead in the long run. First, playing 1/2 NL at a B&M casino is the hardest way to make a profit from poker, because the rake is so high. I would say that probably 5-10% of the players are winning players and the other 90-95% are donating to the winners and the poker room/dealers.

 

[Eugenius]

I read somewhere, maybe in Greenstein's book, that only 5% of poker players are consistant winners. Only 1% are actually able to hold on to their winnings and not gamble them away on some other means.

 

[jj48fan]

I play regularly with about 20 different players in home cash games along with a regular monthly tourneys with about 50 players that show up. About 2/3 of these 20 players either play or have played online. If you add up winnings/losses over the last 2 years I can confidently tell you 2 of us(WVHillbilly and myself) are the only winning players in the group.

I know that is a tiny group of people to extract a number from but most of these guys play all of the time and still do not win.

I think that only the players that truly understand BRM can become winning players when its all said and done.

 

[SONIC589]

This thread is full of so many numbers and math its making my head hurt! lol
It is very interesting though! Lots of valid points from both ends of the spectrum! This is probably something that will never have a 100% solid answer and always be a little skewed either way.

 

[pokeringace]

The percentage that wins varies from Network to Network.

You will find the percentage of winners is much higher on Networks that dont have rakeback (due to less fish).

I am unfortunatally I am in the losing percent personally!!

 

[CardConnoisseur]

Yea, I would say somewhere around 10%. I don't think it's much more, because of the VAST amount of people who play micro stakes for fun. A lot of them just keep depositing after every time they go broke. 50 bucks at a time.

 

[indiana]

How would you calculate the number of winners given a sample of hands? Just count the people that made money over the observed sample, or try to factor in number of hands observed, STD/etc. in that?

I can run any such suggested calculation over huge number of hands.

 

[LizzyJ]

Ummm I think that 10% are break even/marginal players. 5% are winning players, 1% can earn a living. A small handful are high stakes players getting rich. Even a smaller handful will be able to keep their money for the long haul.

 

[Duke0424]

Do you mean anybody who has every played poker? Or do you mean consistant players? I think around 25-30% of consistant players win - it's just my guess based on talking to people and playing the game. Anyone who has ever played? I think it'd be under 5%.

 

[indiana]

Much higher % of the consistent players wins, as the graph indicates - over 50%. People give up earlier, if they see they can't make money, instead of playing hundreds of thousands of hands.

 

[tarik7]

I agree with 10 % and I think it is a maximum !! except occasionel winner that win big once and then keep on loosing their money at lower level tables
And another thing is that everybody you speak to say they are winners almost 90 % of people say that !!! Isn't that crazy ?

 

[Leo 50]

The one good thing I can say about Official Poker Rankings is you can always see who is on a losing streak that day (or days) when you are at a table with them.
The long term results may not matter but it does give you a 'slight' advantage if you know that he/she has played 5 SnG's that day and lost at all of them.

Also they do track private tourneys, don't know if this is a new thing or not.

I only play at Full Tilt and rarely play in cash games so I find it useful

 

[roids]

I love Horse racing, but more so Greyhound. we had a greyhound track here in Portland, but right after I turned 18 they closed down. I was up probably %200 ROI simply because I got lucky. only went there 3 or 4 times too, im sure I woulda lost. My family just got back from vegas and My aunt came out like a bandit at the Horse track.
About Poker, I know im down in the long run

 

[Scandalousthings]

I think 15% are winning players. Solid players are ~35 %, but they have problems with bankroll management. If you have "Tilt" and you can`t manage your bankroll it means clear loss.

 

[Chronical23]

ya i'd like to know this as well. I mean are all of us dreaming about being pros? or how many people could actually make it.

 

[mzdavis]

Lets look at it this way. If you're having fun, you're a winner in my eyes. Which means that it's around 10%-25%.

 

[ted80]

all percentages aside. winning players know when to quit and know their limitations, like how people are bringing up brm. winning players understand its ok to have a losing day or two or three or a week in a row, or a losing month. that's just the way it goes...there are still sets of rules they've set for themselves to follow and they abide by them strictly. that doesn't mean they're the best at their trade...or the smartest. it just means they have the discipline and the patience to handle losing well...AND reasoning to know that winning doesn't mean its time to double down.

to give an example...i flunked out of college...i mean, i've gone back, i'm 28 now, but back in the day, i flunked out. i was a college athlete, i thought i was the greatest thing around...and thought classes were optional...i thought wrong. i have payed for that by working manual labor and crap jobs ever since. but, i have patience, i grind away and don't push things past a set limit. on the other hand, my brother graduated 2nd or 3rd in his class. he's some kinda genius...but with that, he's pretty sure he's better than me, and all of you guys too, and everyone else in the world. he has a nice job too. but he can't gamble, and he can't play poker. if he wins, at anything, he 'tilts' because he gets too full of himself. and if you beat him, or he loses to the house...he 'tilts' because he can't believe he lost

i'm not a big money player, i don't think i'm awesome at poker...sometimes i pretty much disappear from the game when i should be more loose..and that's cool; but i'm not losing and when i do, its an amount i'm willing to part with with the understanding that i have several shots at the level at which i play. and what surprises me the most is how the vast majority of ppl find that absolutely impossible, especially with anything revolving around gambling.

 

[jdeliverer]

In my poker database its about 30% winning players, although a ton of the people in my database are over a tiny sample size. Still, though, even looking at the people with sample size >500 hands, it's about 30/70.

 

[Tom1559]

MTT normally pay out to the top 10 to 15%. I would think therefore over a period of time this would reflect the winning percentage in terms of players. On SnG the payout can be anything from 50% (DoN) downwards. I would guess around 10% of guys playing SnG's end up winning.