Those of you with the tools...

N

NFSolutions

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I was wonder, I love the thread on the AA statistics...

Anyway to see which site gives the most flushed on the river? myself and another player were talking about it, and we both somewhat newbies to online, but see a ton of river flushes on PS...
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I was wonder, I love the thread on the AA statistics...

Anyway to see which site gives the most flushed on the river? myself and another player were talking about it, and we both somewhat newbies to online, but see a ton of river flushes on PS...
I don't know of a way to find this out in PokerTracker. You can check - and I have - how often you get specific hands (pairs, trips, straights, flushes, etc.) but you can't tell how often you've specifically drawn out on the river. If you can, I don't know how.

That said, the phenomenon that you see "a ton of river flushes" is by near certainty something that can be attributed to recall bias. You remember the times your opponent drew out, but you don't remember the times you bet the river and he folded his missed flush draw. You don't remember these, because you don't get to see a showdown so nothing noteworthy registered in your mind.

Nobody likes to be dismissed the way you just were by me in this thread, but hopefully you can accept it for what it is.
 
zachvac

zachvac

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You could write an sql query to figure out how often YOU hit your flush on the river when you had a chance to, but as you don't always see opponents' cards and they fold a lot when they miss the flush the data would be skewed if you included opponents. But you could easily run a query to determine out of all the times you had 4 of a suit on the turn, how often the 5th card hit on the river. Assuming the site's not rigged the number should of course be 9/48 = 18.75%. I may try that, not sure if I'll be able to easily and don't feel like spending a ton of time. But if I do I'll be sure to let you know what my findings were. Few thousand hands on full tilt and like 200k on Stars.
 
S93

S93

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Well its kinda hard to explore this since the vilian will fold his missed draw on the river and there for the data whould show alot higher % then the 18,75% it should be, but u could try and only use your on hands(where u got the draw) and hands where the vilian goes all-in on the turn with his draw.
 
odinscott

odinscott

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Everyone knows that there is no flush rig, the real rig is that they always give the 10 on the river to make a straight... =D
 
smd173

smd173

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Apr 10, 2005
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zach,
Don't you have a Sklansky bucks graph? While that wouldn't be as specific to flushes, it does show expected wins vs. actual, right?
 
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