Rigged: The AA test

Four Dogs

Four Dogs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 13, 2005
Total posts
4,298
Awards
1
Chips
17
This experiment seems like it would be very fun to participate in. However, I do not have PT or PO. I would like to purchase PT when I begin to actually show a big enough profit in poker. Sigh.
Not to turn this into a PT thread, but IMO, buying a product like PT might actually help you to show that profit RB.
 
Alon Ipser

Alon Ipser

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 20, 2005
Total posts
1,406
Chips
0
Using PT to prove that online poker is not rigged will not work. Everyone knows that the sites have software that can detect PT and they only juice the tables where no one is using PT :D :D :D
 
Effexor

Effexor

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
May 13, 2006
Total posts
1,773
Chips
0
Full tilt
hands 31,908
dealt 120
expected 143
1 / 265.9 hands for me
 
Effexor

Effexor

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
May 13, 2006
Total posts
1,773
Chips
0
I realized I didn't include all my databases.

Here's the total for my 2 db's:

Full Tilt
Hands 43,212
AA - 162
expected - 194
1 / 266.7 I'm dealt AA
 
Boltneck

Boltneck

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 1, 2007
Total posts
246
Chips
0
Using PT to prove that online poker is not rigged will not work. Everyone knows that the sites have software that can detect PT and they only juice the tables where no one is using PT :D :D :D

Number of tables where nobody is using PT = 0.1%
Therefore:-
Maximum number of tables that are juiced = 0.1%

The case is proven - the games are not rigged :) :) :)
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
Silver Level
Joined
May 16, 2006
Total posts
6,129
Chips
0
omg AA dealt on all sites are now below expectation! this proves online poker is rigged for....... non-action!?!?

i'll add my ftp db when i'm home
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 13, 2005
Total posts
4,298
Awards
1
Chips
17
Using PT to prove that online poker is not rigged will not work. Everyone knows that the sites have software that can detect PT and they only juice the tables where no one is using PT :D :D :D
Doh! Nice going Alon. You just started a whole new conspiracy theory.

omg AA dealt on all sites are now below expectation! this proves online poker is rigged for....... non-action!?!?

i'll add my ftp db when i'm home


really, check it out. The poker sites are down by 46 AA's after 400,000 hands. Twisted logic says they're losing rake $. They better fix that leak before they go broke. Full Tilt is getting totally screwed.
 

Attachments

  • Rigged AA.JPG
    Rigged AA.JPG
    26.6 KB · Views: 612
C

CHESTERFLICK

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Jul 2, 2007
Total posts
12
Chips
0
rigged, fixed , cheat, blah blah blah

I have not posted in quite some time and it is because I have never seen so many experts at one site before I mean really what could I possibly add to your little gang of experts. My god you all must be filthy rich with all the poker knowledge you have and you math skills are only 2nd to the top guys at NASA.
But here is the truth about it as I see it.
Whenever anyone comes to this site and claims anything to the negative to online poker they are laughed at and beat up so bad by you poker experts that I would think they would never want to return.
No matter what anyone ever says you experts always want to use the word rigged.
And here is a guy justifing what went on at absolute as merely a security issue..a security issue thats all.
The real question is if online poker is ALWAYS on the up and up..well obviously the answer is no. To what extent..who knows maybe the absolute thing is the only time in online poker history that anyone was caught cheating. Rigging is another type of cheating but lets not mix words.
People come to sites like these for help but you experts dont do that you would rather laugh and tell them how bad the play poker or be real inventive and call them something like donk or donkey.
The owner of this site nick just e-mailed me wondering why I have not posted in a while. Its because you regulars are rude and obnoxious know it alls who must be the richest online poker player the world will ever know.. more power to you. As for me I will just go through my online poker playing with the knowledge I have and try not to make anymore deposits.
For my play I play at full tilt only because I tend to do better there then anywhere else and would tell people to never ever play at ultimate bet. hell I would rather play at absolute before ultime bet.
so Adios poker pros I am sure you will be happy with the millios you are making playing online you must be the best in the business because you are not even scared by a little teeny weeny security breath at a top online site.
 
Lo-Dog

Lo-Dog

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 11, 2006
Total posts
2,240
Chips
0
5624 hands on PS
Dealt AA 28 times
I believe the expectation is 25.3
 
Boltneck

Boltneck

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 1, 2007
Total posts
246
Chips
0
People come to sites like these for help but you experts dont do that you would rather laugh and tell them how bad the play poker or be real inventive and call them something like donk or donkey.

It's a shame that you feel this way, but I think that you are confusing 2 different issues. Yes, people who accuse sites of being rigged and fail to supply any evidence to support that are often ridiculed, and justifyable so (in my opinion). However, I would challenge you to reply here with a link to ANY thread on this site where a member, either new or old, has been ridiculed for asking for advice.

No matter what anyone ever says you experts always want to use the word rigged.
And here is a guy justifing what went on at absolute as merely a security issue..a security issue thats all.

Again, I think you may be getting 2 issues muddled into one. The Absolute debacle related to individuals who were cheating (and caught out). This was not a case of the poker site being involved, though most will accept that the site's security was crap in the extreme. Again, I would challenge you to post a link to a thread on this site where anyone has claimed that cheating (by individuals) does not exist. Indeed, there are several threads where just such behaviour has been highlighted. Nobody (as far as I know) has been ridiculed for suggesting that there are people out there who try to cheat.
 
Tygran

Tygran

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 4, 2007
Total posts
1,757
Chips
0
Boltneck is completely right, I couldn't have said it better.

Although all I came here to say is that if we are going to have this discussion yet again can we do it somewhere else? It's off topic to this thread and doesn't belong here.
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 13, 2005
Total posts
4,298
Awards
1
Chips
17
I have not posted in quite some time and it is because I have never seen so many experts at one site before I mean really what could I possibly add to your little gang of experts. My god you all must be filthy rich with all the poker knowledge you have and you math skills are only 2nd to the top guys at NASA.
But here is the truth about it as I see it.
Whenever anyone comes to this site and claims anything to the negative to online poker they are laughed at and beat up so bad by you poker experts that I would think they would never want to return.
No matter what anyone ever says you experts always want to use the word rigged.
And here is a guy justifing what went on at absolute as merely a security issue..a security issue thats all.
The real question is if online poker is ALWAYS on the up and up..well obviously the answer is no. To what extent..who knows maybe the absolute thing is the only time in online poker history that anyone was caught cheating. Rigging is another type of cheating but lets not mix words.
People come to sites like these for help but you experts dont do that you would rather laugh and tell them how bad the play poker or be real inventive and call them something like donk or donkey.
The owner of this site nick just e-mailed me wondering why I have not posted in a while. Its because you regulars are rude and obnoxious know it alls who must be the richest online poker player the world will ever know.. more power to you. As for me I will just go through my online poker playing with the knowledge I have and try not to make anymore deposits.
For my play I play at full tilt only because I tend to do better there then anywhere else and would tell people to never ever play at ultimate bet. hell I would rather play at absolute before ultime bet.
so Adios poker pros I am sure you will be happy with the millios you are making playing online you must be the best in the business because you are not even scared by a little teeny weeny security breath at a top online site.
lLol. Nick e-mailed you? Oh sure, I mean after those 12 quality posts you made 6 months ago EVERYONE has been awiating your return with baited breath. I personally have been hounding Nick to get you to come back. Too bad you won't be staying long though. We 30,000 poker pros will miss you sorely, even if you aren't an expert.
 
mendozaline

mendozaline

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 23, 2007
Total posts
101
Chips
0
Again, I think you may be getting 2 issues muddled into one. The Absolute debacle related to individuals who were cheating (and caught out). This was not a case of the poker site being involved, though most will accept that the site's security was crap in the extreme.
?????

What are you talking about? Did you read the story about the Absolute Scandal? It goes directly to the former CEO of the company Scott Tom!!! Either you don't know about this topic or you're spinning bro'.

This is NOT about individual's who were cheating. It never has been. It's about "rigging". Look up the definitions of cheating and rigging and you'll see there are overlaps, but in my opinion "rigging" more closely fits the Absolute Poker scandal, as it does with the Full Tilt Bot Scandal.

You're right that we can't prove all the implications of what has been uncovered so far, but the guys who uncovered these things certainly presented cogent arguments that there was something fraudulent going on. It really all boils down to how one interprets the facts as we know them.
 
HartAttack3

HartAttack3

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 12, 2007
Total posts
656
Chips
0
This is NOT about individual's who were cheating. It never has been. It's about "rigging". Look up the definitions of cheating and rigging and you'll see there are overlaps, but in my opinion "rigging" more closely fits the Absolute Poker scandal, as it does with the Full Tilt Bot Scandal.

You're right that we can't prove all the implications of what has been uncovered so far, but the guys who uncovered these things certainly presented cogent arguments that there was something fraudulent going on. It really all boils down to how one interprets the facts as we know them.


Rigging, at least as everyone whines about it, is about a poker site giving you AA and someone else KK and making sure the KK wins. Other examples are you get AA hit a set of aces only to lose to a person playing j-10 suited and catching a str8 or a flush.

The absolute scandal had nothing to do with rigging in that sense. The only thing that happened in the absolute scandal was a player was able to see everyone elses hole cards. He had no control over what cards came and I dont believe in any way it was "rigged" unless you want to call that rigging which if you do then go ahead but that is not what the rigged discussion, or this thread, is about at all.

So either you dont know what your talkin about or your spinnin bro. ;)
 
mendozaline

mendozaline

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 23, 2007
Total posts
101
Chips
0
Rigging, at least as everyone whines about it, is about a poker site giving you AA and someone else KK and making sure the KK wins. Other examples are you get AA hit a set of aces only to lose to a person playing j-10 suited and catching a str8 or a flush.

The absolute scandal had nothing to do with rigging in that sense. The only thing that happened in the absolute scandal was a player was able to see everyone elses hole cards. He had no control over what cards came and I dont believe in any way it was "rigged" unless you want to call that rigging which if you do then go ahead but that is not what the rigged discussion, or this thread, is about at all.

So either you dont know what your talkin about or your spinnin bro. ;)
You know, I don't totally disagree with what you just said. My idea of "rigging" might not be exactly what this thread is about, and I appreciate your civility in pointing that out. All I'm saying is "rigging is in the eye of the beholder". If someone conspires to create a situation in which they might be able to win any given hand on command, I'd say that's rigging.

If a software team was to invite me into a brainstorming session on how to "rig" the software, I wouldn't suggest that KK wins over AA as you said. I would say, make the software such that at any given time the house could win a hand if it so chose. Period.

Let me give you an example. We all know that all hand histories are saved. We save them ourselves. We also know that there exists software that can replay those save HHs. UB recently added a replay feature. So, if hands can be replayed, they can also be "re-used" in situations where the house wants Seat 3 to lose to Seat 6. Compared to some machine control code I've seen, that would be fairly routine for a high level programmer.

So, what else might be possible. When I worked in a software team, I can remember many a meeting where someone from Marketing or Manufacturing or Field Support would come to one of our meetings and when someone asked them if they had any issues, they would say, "would it be possible to........(fill in the blanks)....."

The answer from the development team was always the same, "anything's possible if that's what you want us to work on."

So, my idea of "rigging" is to make the software such that X can beat Y at any given point in time.

When you look at it that way, we aren't disagreeing all that much.

In all honesty, I'm just trying to avoid being naive about this whole thing.
 
S

switch0723

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 2, 2007
Total posts
8,430
Chips
0
what has this thread turned into, this was a good thread but it seems to be on a downswing. The whole point of this thread is to see how often aces are dealt since some people say that sites deal bigger hands to increase their rake. So this was a test to put that theory to bed.
 
C

Crocodile King

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 20, 2007
Total posts
56
Chips
0
OK so back to original post how does that prove online poker isnt rigged?

That you are only getting the correct percentage of monster hands?

People lose hands and cry its rigged, I think they are just crying.

As for multiple monsters on board yeah it seems weird. Sure I play more hands online alot more than live but I just havent seen so many mosters vs monsters (flushes, boats, quads) as I do online.

Then there are the free rolls.
I sit there in a free roll for 2 hours and get nothing but rags. Ill play multiple SnGs in that same time from beginning to end and go through all ranges of hands.

Live games I seem to make pretty steady progress, online is alot more of a roller coaster but I thinks thats due to online donkiness (people tend to take dumb gambles and they some times suck you out).
 
L

LottoLarry

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Dec 29, 2007
Total posts
10
Chips
0
dont jnow

L never keep statistics myself but i do see aces kicked what seems to be alot bu then again no hand is going to be an all in winner all the time and i do love checking your stats out besides im not ver good at it and not even sure how you all get them anyways good luck all of you and take care
 
N

no1yidmax

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Dec 30, 2007
Total posts
24
Chips
0
I think that this is a brilliant idea, and glancing down at just the first few posts is enough proof that online poker isn't rigged, over time you still win what you should and don't get rivered every single time, like everyone seems to believe happens on sites such as stars or FTP.

However, they'll still be people commenting on this thread and saying that proofs nothing, etc etc... let them moan, they only moan because they are the players who lose money overtime playing poker, gl at the tables all...


no1yidmax
 
J

jame7231

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 1, 2007
Total posts
31
Chips
0
Who knows

It makes me wonder sometimes with all the times that I have had high pairs. Some nights I receive them over and over, and other times I can't get high pairs to save my life.
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 13, 2005
Total posts
4,298
Awards
1
Chips
17
OK so back to original post how does that prove online poker isnt rigged?
It doesn't prove that on-line poker isn't rigged, but I think it demonstrates pretty well that if it is, then it's done in some other way than manipulating the shuffling algorithm. I am fairly convinced that this at least is not the case.

In fact, I'm amazed at how accurate the RNG at poker stars is. In over 300,000 hands we see that our contributers have been dealt AA EXACTLY the number of times one would expect. A simple test yes, but why should anyone think that any other hand should be over or under represented. If this ignorant assumption is wrong, what reason do we have to believe that any of the other equally paranoid assumptions would do any better.

The truth of the matter is that with the use hand tracking software as widespread as it is, any significant monkey business on the part poker sites would be too easy to expose.
 
mendozaline

mendozaline

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 23, 2007
Total posts
101
Chips
0
It doesn't prove that on-line poker isn't rigged, but I think it demonstrates pretty well that if it is, then it's done in some other way than manipulating the shuffling algorithm. I am fairly convinced that this at least is not the case.

In fact, I'm amazed at how accurate the RNG at Poker Stars is. In over 300,000 hands we see that our contributers have been dealt AA EXACTLY the number of times one would expect.
I agree 100% and I think you all just proved that the RNG is not the issue. The RNG makes for a convenient scapegoat, but in my opinion ever since Reliable Software Technologies cracked the early RNG in 1999 such that they could predict every card in the deck in real time after seeing the first few cards, I think it's safe to assume that all the major players were forced to make the RNGs more robust. Plus, it seems like the shuffle algorithm has been independently audited at most poker sites.

But as of this date, I haven't seen any mention of the high level code (that sits between the RNG and the user interface) being audited at any site. That's where the rigging would take place.

So, while this thread does prove what the author set out to prove, I would argue that it doesn't prove whether or not there is any kind of rigging going on that isn't RNG specific.
 
Last edited:
Top