D
darkww
Rising Star
Bronze Level
I had AA for 60 times on pokerstars now.
Four Dogs
Legend
Silver Level
Okay, how many hands?
Z
zingbust
Rock Star
Silver Level
Hi, I don't have time to read the whole thread but I've noticed that it's quite active, so what's the consensus, is online poker rigged? Did someone prove it with all the charts and stuff? Is it just certain sites or a certain site, or most/all sites? Or are the opinions still divided?
Four Dogs
Legend
Silver Level
Here's a quick recap. Many people believe that some, or all of the on-line poker sites rig the deck to produce more action hands which in turn produce bigger pots which in turn produce a larger rake. If this were so, there would tend to be anomalys in the expected distribution of starting hands. Just for fun we picked the most glamorous starting hand of all AA and asked our members to contribute stats on how many hands they played and how often they were dealt AA. The ratio of any pair to hands dealt is well known and easy to calculate and is 1/221 or .004525/hand.
To be fair we have separated the data into different poker rooms so that if one site were indeed fiddling with the deck, the other sites stats would not be tainted by the results of the one bad site. If the RNG (random number generators) and shuffling algorithms are indeed producing a legitimately random shuffle, the difference between the ratio of AA to hands dealt and to that magic number of .004525 should get increasingly smaller but never in fact vanish. In the case of PokerStars with by far the largest sample size we are very close to the expected value. In the case of Full Tilt, we are not as close as I would expect with so large a sample size. Does that mean it's rigged. I don't know. You decide for yourself. I will say that although the deviation is greater than I would expect, the number of AA hands one should see is not greater than expected, but less. If bigger hands do in fact produce bigger rakes, then Full Tilt is cheating noone but themselves.
G
Guittars
Enthusiast
Silver Level
I just had to post on here for anyone who bemoans bad luck.
I am currently playing 5c/10c NL cash. I am double tabling on my laptop.
I have played 276 hands. I have had AA 5 times!! It won all 5 times.
I have had KK 3 times - it lost twice.
I have had AK several times - not sure of win/lose frequency.
Perhaps most amazingly I had
AA twice in 3 hands
I had AA, followed by AK followed by blank followed by KK.
Unbelievable.
Don't you love poker?!
G
I am currently playing 5c/10c NL cash. I am double tabling on my laptop.
I have played 276 hands. I have had AA 5 times!! It won all 5 times.
I have had KK 3 times - it lost twice.
I have had AK several times - not sure of win/lose frequency.
Perhaps most amazingly I had
AA twice in 3 hands
I had AA, followed by AK followed by blank followed by KK.
Unbelievable.
Don't you love poker?!
G
Four Dogs
Legend
Silver Level
RIGGED!
metalpaulie
Rising Star
Bronze Level
dude your really on to something here i just dont have a history of my hands but ive been playing poker online for about 5 yrs and beetween paradise,bodog,poker stars,full tilt and ultimate i cant even come up with a probable number to put on here sry any suggestions
pjm
pjm
Four Dogs
Legend
Silver Level
Not really, but even if you don't use any software to track your sessions, you can still save your HH's. I wouldn't bother trying cull out the AA hands manually, but if you ever do purchase Poker Tracker or Poker Office we'd more than appreciate the contribution. I certainly wouldn't mind seeing some bodog or paradise stats. Thanks for the interest.
Monoxide
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Wow just wow, wow just wow, wow, wow like wow.
Bigsmak
Rock Star
Silver Level
Must be rigged then
R
rohsweee
Rising Star
Bronze Level
I don't keep track of my play, but on Poker Stars I get more KK then any other pairs or any othe site, and I loose most of the time getting beat on the river by a draw.
May be the rigged part is that when a monster hand like AA, AK or KK is in play it provide other player with a flop that will give them good draw to beef up the pot. An with their usual reward on the river.
This coupled with loose player to call on draws, it would provide greater rake for the site.
Rohsweee
May be the rigged part is that when a monster hand like AA, AK or KK is in play it provide other player with a flop that will give them good draw to beef up the pot. An with their usual reward on the river.
This coupled with loose player to call on draws, it would provide greater rake for the site.
Rohsweee
KyleJRM
Visionary
Silver Level
If you don't keep track, there's almost no chance you are remembering correctly. The human brain isn't wired for it.
I Am Willis
Enthusiast
Silver Level
its a myth that will never be resolved, as there is no direct in proving such stats in-conclusivly that is.
Yes it does favour the sites to keep circulating $ for more rake etc etc.. but then again if it has over 100k players on it for the majority of the time does it need to do this?
I guess its just what side of the coin you see it from.
Yes it does favour the sites to keep circulating $ for more rake etc etc.. but then again if it has over 100k players on it for the majority of the time does it need to do this?
I guess its just what side of the coin you see it from.
KyleJRM
Visionary
Silver Level
Over millions of hands, the probability of each card appearing in any given slot (your hand, the flop, the turn, the river) should reflect true randomness. If it doens't, then it's rigged. If it does, then it's not.
O
On A Pair Draw
Enthusiast
Silver Level
I can see how showing that the distribution of AA is improper would prove that the software is not working properly (“rigged,” although I think that sounds like there is some conspiracy at work, when all we are trying to prove is whether or not the software is selecting cards randomly).
But I don’t see how showing that your AA distribution is correct proves that the software is working correctly in every way. All it proves is that hand distribution looks good….and not even for other hands…just AA in this thread.
It would be great if someone could prove that any given online poker site was perfectly straight, but that would take a lot more than the analysis offered by poker tracker and other commercial software.
It seems to me that looking at AA distribution and claiming that it proves a site is not rigged is like looking at the breaks on a used car and saying it proves the car is in great shape….only you never checked the engine.
You can have perfect AA distribution, but what if you are losing 50% of the times you go all in pre flop heads up? That would be messed up, but your distribution would still look good.
Or what if your distribution is right, and you win the right percentage of hands all in pre flop heads up, but the pots you lost all fell within the top 25% largest pots you were involved in with AA? Then your distribution and win percentage would look good, but that would still be messed up.
Or what if your distribution looked good, your win rate looked good, and the pot sizes evened out, but every time you flopped set over set with another pair, your opponent made quads on the river to beat you? That would also be pretty messed up.
I might be missing something here, but it seems like AA distribution is a drop in the software bucket and it falls short of proving anything. An online poker site would have to be pretty dumb to skew the software on something as easy to see as hand distribution, considering they know what poker tracker can keep track of and they write their hand histories in such a fashion that poker tracker can easily convert them into data.
Personally, I’d like someone to analyze hands based on odds, which is something no commercial program can do right now. I’d like a program to take a large database of hands, group each situation by odds, like all the four to one hands in one group and all the three to one hands in another, and then analyze if players are really winning four out of five hands when they are four to one favorite.
I haven’t seen anything that can do that yet. But that would surely go a lot farther toward proving or disproving than hand distribution.
Monoxide
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level