is poker still beatable in 2034?

[Poker Orifice]

so one or two responses seem to mis what I am getting at but I think overall people get it. Poker will always evolve and change over time that much is a given. Poker arguably is solved now with GTO and what not very few if any humans will ever reach the point where they can play perfect GTO.

I seriously doubt we will reach a point where in $10/£10 sit and goes mtts spin and goes or NL cash you will have tables of human players who are all playing near perfect GTO. I specifically say Human players because I could see that scenario been reached with bots but not human players.

Even if that did become the norm for humans then someone could just throw out random stuff people are not ready for which is non GTO but people are unadapted for this has already happened in higher stake spin and goes. Where when games are 3 handed and 15 blinds deep the game tree is much smaller then say six handed 100 blind deep cash. Some players have really learned this format to a point where they are very close and then suddenly you see strong pros at the top adopting 3 handed button limping ranges and 3.5x raising ranges.

This is completely non GTO and in theory would not beat a perfect bot but their opponents are not perfect bots and have studied how to play against GTO like plays so they dont adapt adequately. this goes beyond what I am qualified to talk about but yes it shows poker always evolves. despite so many solid players I regularly see people doing stupid things and playing bad assuming we dont hit a financial crash so bad that it puts near everyone in financial destitution their will always be dead money (terrible play) and so the games should still in theory always be beatable if your always playing human beings and your always playing beatable formats.

I am not asking if human players will be beatable in ten years time of course they will my concerns are the following 3
1. sites change games/rakeback to formats that are not realistically beatable
2. legislation kills the games
3. botting becomes so prevalent that humans can no longer recently compete.

I would literally say its most in order of threats there from point 1 been the smallest threat to point 3 been the biggest threat.

Not only are HS Spins players adjusting (ie. limping range 15 bb effective otb, & 3.5x raises) but so are (and will be) the online poker sites in order to stay in business. Case in point, pokerstars announces this week that they will be returning to a rewards format similar to the way it was in the past.
ie. if all games become unbeatable, sites will make necessary adjustments to attract players to play on their site(s) so that some will still be beatable.

Myself, I have finally stopped working and am now 'working' (lol) towards playing MORE poker in hopes of generating a part-time /min. wage income from it. I will strive for greater than this but will be okay if this is as good as it gets. And if this doesn't work out for me... idk. My options/ prospects are becoming fewer & fewer over time.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Yes, of course it will be. I started to play poker around 17 years ago and I saw you joined here in 2009, so, you also play poker for many years. At that time the big names of poker were Negreanu, Hellmuth, Ivey, Tom Dwan...and they still are big names in 2024 and still are winning players. They definitely work hard and never stop studying the game. I don't want to be a professional player, but my biggest worry would not be if the game would still be beatable in 10 years, but it would be the legislation and how unpredictable poker rooms are, like they can decide to stop to offer games to any country at any time. For example, last year Party Poker left several countries and if I was a professional player and had PP as my main room, this would be a disaster.

Many players migrate to other countries where they're able to continue to play online poker for a living.

 

[Poker Orifice]

My fear from playing poker for a full time living is that in a few years or 10 years etc I suddenly find I can no longer do it I am kind of screwed career wise.

What if you quit poker today... then where would you be 'career wise' ?
What's the difference if it's today, next week, or 3years, 5 years from now?
We figure it out and we adapt. But I understand what you are saying - - I have not been working since COVID and now my health is deteriorating at such a pace I am unable to do most things I was formerly able to do easily. My options have become very limited and yet I am not afraid... I have faith that I will be okay and what I need will come to me.

P.S. - I hope poker lasts forever, lol

 

[G0930]

I am not asking if human players will be beatable in ten years time of course they will my concerns are the following 3
1. sites change games/rakeback to formats that are not realistically beatable
2. legislation kills the games
3. botting becomes so prevalent that humans can no longer recently compete.

I would literally say its most in order of threats there from point 1 been the smallest threat to point 3 been the biggest threat.

Number 2 changed a lot for me..
We had quite a few pokerrooms in Vienna but the license wasn't renewed...

Used to live off live winnings now I only can go to the state owned casinos whose games are not really beatable.
Either you don't win enough so you actually make a loss with the high rake or you make very much and the Casino refuses cashout or letting you play again. That isn't an assumption that actually happened to an Austrian player....
He had to file a lawsuit to get his winnings..won of course but can't set a foot in the casino anymore.

Don't think they are interested in winning players.
That's why I Ioved the private owned pokerrooms... 10 times more games to choose from, even prestigous events like the ept or wpt was held there or organized by them.

 

[I Live Poker]

Go play poker! Or become philosophers....

 

[silentshowdown]

The answer varies. I think that the best poker rooms employ excellent engineers who continually improve security. However, the threat of AI, cheating, and other issues is a serious concern.

 

[R.Melnyk77]

So that is not a mistype I do mean in 2034 not 2024.

its been a while since I posted here, work has been stressful abusive and exploitative. My girlfriend keeps pushing me to just give up all work and go full time poker professional.

I make no claims to be a great player I am sure many on here if they had my screen names and saw me play would have a lot of criticisms and may even say I am a bad player.
However the fact remains I can see I can make more money playing poker then I could realistically hope to make from work not just now but for the next decade if I work my way up a career ladder. A large part of that is that in the UK you do not pay tax on poker winnings, but obviously do from work. If I made £39000 a year in the UK my take home pay would be £29000 this does not include the cost of travel getting ready for work commuting and realistically any meals I might buy whilst at work. To achieve the same result from online poker I would need to make roughly £125 a day.
I see job adverts asking for five years experience and a degree offering £25000 a year, which is more then I have ever been paid from a non poker job. to achieve the same result I would need to make approx £90 a day from poker again 25000k works out at 20900 roughly after tax and deductions etc. again not factoring in transport and time traveling.

for context my spread sheet works out hourly not exact figures so these are rough figures and I do factor in tax but also holiday pay which I would not get for poker. I should also factor in cost of transport but did not do so because that will obviously be variable depending on whatever the job is.

So on the face of it if a magic genie could absolute guarantee that nothing changes in the landscape from where it is today in online poker my girlfriend would be right the rational decision would be to just play poker full time for a living.

However with constant governments looking at changing legislation with sites looking at changing games and rake structure and bonuses etc and with the most serious issue the rise of bots, it becomes questionable whether making a living from poker will be viable in the long term future.

My fear from playing poker for a full time living is that in a few years or 10 years etc I suddenly find I can no longer do it I am kind of screwed career wise. I dont need to know if online poker is beatable in 2024 I know for a fact it is. what concerns me is will it be beatable in 2034 or 2044?

A difficult question, and a rather difficult choice.
I think you should take advantage of this situation as it is now. If you can make good money playing poker right now, then just do it. No one can tell you exactly what the situation will be in 2034 or 2044. Considering how many different kinds of global problems humanity as a whole is currently facing, it is simply difficult to say whether we will even exist in 2034. If I were you, I would do what brings more money at the moment, just do what you like, because none of us knows if tomorrow will be a new day and if we will be there - tomorrow

 

[R.Melnyk77]

Friend, poker is tricky, but you can't rely on it! Because today you win handsomely, but tomorrow you already lose everything
The advice is good or the risk is worth it, because I say this from experience!

Are you saying this from your experience?
Seriously?
.... a player who stupidly plays with junk every day tells us about his experience ...... It's quite funny

 

[luckyfish98]

R.Melnyk77​

you haven't seen how patiently and smartly I play sunday million
I don't take freerolls seriously anymore so sick

 

[ficticius]

I highly doubt it. Technology advances a lot sooner or later it will prevail. How, for example, artificial intelligence

 

[ODRAGD3]

Don't quit your job man! Don't pay attention to a woman when you are the alpha male who decides things in the relationship! Poker is a roulette to win even for someone who studies the game in depth! you don't always win! remember that! You can work and play poker in a casino, online poker does not train professionals!

 

[R.Holynskyi]

If you can make money now, then you should do it. Undoubtedly, while there is such an opportunity, it should be used. No one knows what will happen in 10 years. But the opportunities that are available now should definitely not be missed

 

[Poker Orifice]

Don't quit your job man! Don't pay attention to a woman when you are the alpha male who decides things in the relationship! Poker is a roulette to win even for someone who studies the game in depth! you don't always win! remember that! You can work and play poker in a casino, online poker does not train professionals!

In the new millennium (& lets hope for many decades prior in most places in the World) women are treated as equals. One half of the relationship doesn't make decisions for both parties... it doesn't work that way (or at least not typically). If you believe this, you're still living back in the dark ages.

The OP (Luke Silver) wasn't asking if he should quit his job (he's actually played online poker professionally for many years, but has also kept a side job too... at least this is what I recall of his story having read some of his stuff for the past decade or so).

Poker is a high variance game (some formats more than others) but for those who study the game in depth, it is far from being considered 'roulette'.
Why are there players at all stake levels online who are making a profit year after year? (I have some friends who have never had a real job and have only played online poker for their entire adult life).

Although the players are typically much weaker/worse in casinos (vs. online), the rake is extremely high and the game moves very slowly. It is difficult to put in much volume in a casino.

"Online poker does not train professionals!" Actually it does! Most of the 'live' pros you see who are playing High Stakes NLHE Tournaments were once HSMTT online regulars 'or' they still are and play both live & online. Online poker is actually an awesome training ground for playing poker... especially tournaments where you can get in just a HUGE amount of volume. (online tournament pros can get in 50 to 100x as many tournaments played in just 1 years time). An online tournament pro will often play more tournaments in just 1 year vs. a casino tournament player will play in their entire lifetime. (online tournament pros are often playing 10,000 to 12,000 tournaments per year).

 

[MikeCarasone]

Poker is always evolving and it may be harder to beat but there will be players beating the game with proper effort. Game has advanced through studying and I imagine it will continue to improve but those players putting the effort in educating themselves how to win than there will be people winning or learning how to.

 

[infonazar]

Considering the speed with which military conflicts arise in different parts of our planet, I honestly am not very sure that 2034 will be......
So, do what brings you pleasure, use every day with benefit for yourself and your loved ones, and just enjoy life

 

[luckyfish98]

I have noticed that the longer online poker stays, the harder it is to get something and win.