Ok, let's do some math. I'll use my WR by position that I posted on the previous page. I'll make the assumption that posting in the CO doesn't effect our WR from that position (before the posts are deducted).
Now we're going to play 2 sets of 100000 trips around a FR table (the table will always be full). 1 set will wait for the BB and leave before he posts his last BB. This set will play exactly 900000 hands. The other set will always wait for the CO to post it's 1st blind. This set will play fewer hands. Exactly how many fewer will depend on how many sessions we play and how many tables we play per session.
...
Note that I left the tables per session at 20 but the longer the session goes the more likely it would be that we would average more tables further hurting our WR when we post from the CO.
So what if we could do it all in 1 20 table session? Well we still make $12.55 more by waiting for the BB. All this means at my WR per position we lose $.63 for every $1 blind we post from the CO.
Okay, I'm a little confused by what you have here, so maybe you could explain some things to me.
1. Why are you including the blinds and button in your "Post in CO" sheets? The scenario I have been talking about all along was where you could post a single BB in the cutoff and skip the blinds and button. I thought you understood this because you explained it to someone else here...
I don't think he's actually say he would leave every 6 hands, just using the extremes to try to prove his point. It makes comparison easier. Same idea applies though even if he stays for a thousand hands.
What I have been trying to demonstrate is that it would be profitable if you could do this every round, therefore it is a winning, not a losing play to do it every time you join a table.
2. What is that extra money you're subtracting (-$18,000, -12,000, -6000) from each "Post in CO" sheet?
3. Why would you not play the same number of total hands in each example to make the comparison clearer.
4. What difference does it make how many hands are played per session or how many tables you play? All of my discussions have essentially been about comparing posting the standard BB & SB and playing 9 hands with posting 1 BB in the cutoff and playing 6 hands. Each of these "rounds" can be taken as a discrete event and it doesn't matter how many hands you play per session, though comparing the rounds in a 2:3 ratio will make things easier because the total hands and blinds will be identical.
Where the number of hands per session does become a factor is in the real world where it is not practical to switch tables every round just so you can get the (very large) benefit of posting in the cutoff. (I will explain shortly) In this case, the advantage that you get by posting in the cutoff is diminished for each additional round you play where you must post the standard BB & SB until it eventually becomes completely insignificant.
So, here are the numbers as they should have been presented: (the table on the left is your original one for comparison)
Here I'm comparing 100,000 rounds of standard full ring with 150,000 rounds of "skip the blinds, post in the cutoff" full ring. This is so that we end up playing the same number of hands. First, I remove the BB, SB and Button because they are never played. The only tricky part is, what does posting a bb in the cutoff do to your win rate.
I started by making the slightly generous assumption that if you didn't have to post the BB, your win rate in the BB position would be the same as UTG. That would mean that posting the BB causes you to lose 21.83 BB/100 in that position. So I subtracted that from your current win rate in the cutoff to come up with a win rate of -7.43 BB/100. I suspect that you would have no problem doing much better than that, and might even achieve a positive win rate, but even at that level the results are impressive.
As you can see, you could be making at least 1 extra BB/100 if you could post one BB in the cutoff every round and skip the blinds and button. Even if you don't believe the win rate I chose is valid, the break even point is a win rate of -13.39 - worse than you're currently experiencing in the SB.
I hope this helps. Good luck at the tables.
As with everything else in poker small actions played out over a large enough sample size have big effects.
