Online poker is not Rigged. There's no such thing as bad beats in MTTs!

[RA2000]

That´s what everyone will tell you:
You need a lot of luck to win such a tournement!
But yout math example shows that you can raise your chances by going all in with better hands than your opponent. :deal:

 

[UFCcantstopme]

i agree

i agree with most of what you are saying. Most people complain about bad beats on how they lost with A3 or J10, first off if the other person raised big preflop, they should not have been in the hand. Next, they have to learn to play better quality hands, it is all about surviving tournaments and going deep into them. Then again, some bad beats are just going to happen.

 

[zachvac]

Now, with a tourney, going in you don't know beforehand how many times your going to put your whole stack in the middle. But if you get to a final table and /or win, look at your hand history, calculate the winning probabilities of all the times your stack was in the middle and calculate the total probability and see just how lucky you were that all your hands held up.

Yes and this is why even the best don't win very often. But they don't win by passing up 80-20 situations.

Look at it this way, if everyone in the tourney decided to flip every hand you would end up breaking even in the long run minus the rake. If you take a 55-45 flip every hand you will end up being profitable. The point is not many people are able to get money in while the opponent is drawing dead. Sure it's unlikely that you will win 10 times in a row if you get money in 80% to win, but it's even less likely that you'll do it with 20% to win, which is what you've forced the opposition to do. Remember the goal is not to get yourself to win this one tourney, but to give yourself the highest probability of winning the tourney. When you can get all your money in with 80% to win, this is about the best chance you have to maximize your chances of making it deep. The problem you miss is that passing up this chance means that later in the tournament you will have to take a worse edge or a spot that isn't even an edge at all. You'll end up having to flip, or get in a spot where you are dominated for all your chips because you don't have enough. Whereas if you just won the 80-20 you could fold in those marginal spots and wait for a spot where you actually have an edge later down the road.

 

[dd_decker]

Good post, good advice. The other day I had aces agaist A,8 offsuit, got my chips all in and was called pre-flop. 8 on the flop, 8 on the river ended my tournament, in the money but fuming because winnig that hand would've put me in great shape. 92% chance of winning pre-flop AND on the river. But what are ya gonna do? Your goal is to get your chips in with the best hand. Then you have to be lucky.