Lets Talk About LUCK !!!

[thetzarofpoker]

In my opinion having Luck is Essential to be a winner, lets talk about experiences, definitions, ways to call it, and ways to deal and manage it.. :icon_cycl

I think this could be very interesting and we can try others people methods they share..

 

[MrPokerVerse]

Luck is a by-product of hard work. Winning consistently has nothing to do with luck. Might get a hand here or there, everyone does, you wont find success there though.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

In my opinion having Luck is Essential to be a winner, lets talk about experiences, definitions, ways to call it, and ways to deal and manage it.. :icon_cycl

I think this could be very interesting and we can try others people methods they share..

Luck is a by-product of hard work. Winning consistently has nothing to do with luck. Might get a hand here or there, everyone does, you wont find success there though.

Both of these are over-stated in my opinion. I agree that you do not have to be lucky to consistently win but luck or perhaps more specifically variance is a HUGE part of the game. Even pro crushers who earn 10+ BB / hr have discussed 150 hour break even spans, ridiculous coolers in huge pots that happen so infrequently they can crush your win rate, and all other manner of downswings that hit some players much harder than others. This is even further magnified for tournament players. That one AA vs KK hand in a tournament where you hit your K and win could be the difference between making the final table or not. In an event like the wsop main event that could literally make or break your career because you got lucky at the right time (instead of blowing half your roll on a tournament you couldn't really afford, getting frustrated at the grind, missing the money bubble and deciding to dedicate more time to something else you hit your draw make the final table and 7 figures and continue to work on your game. Either way you were a winning player but in one case you got lucky and re-focused and stayed with it). If you play long enough (2k hours live or 100k hands online or whatever) then you SHOULD work your way back towards the middle of your expected win rate but the difference between running bad and running good is HUGE.

For a more personal example, last year I only logged 250 ish hours but my win rate was over 15 BB / hr. This year over 365 hour I'm at like 4.5 BB / hr so far. That's a HUGE difference. Am I really playing well enough to make 15 BB / hr? Probably not. Am I really playing at the level of the average 4.5 BB / hr player or am I running bad? Realistically the answer is usually in the middle somewhere but just the fact that the ranges are so wide proves how huge it is to be lucky or run good in my opinion.

 

[dompoker]

I agree with you, luck influences the game, I have seen bad players regularly reach final tables, and good players who have not had good results, some people are luckier than
others.

 

[MrPokerVerse]

I agree with you, luck influences the game, I have seen bad players regularly reach final tables, and good players who have not had good results, some people are luckier than
others.

This is not the definition of a lucky bad player.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

This is not the definition of a lucky bad player.

I assumed he meant different sets of bad players at final tables. If the same "bad player" is frequently showing up at the final table they are probably not as bad as you think.

 

[Backlash]

I still reference in my mind something Chris Ferguson said years ago. Something like, "Luck is a variable but quite often bad players lean on it like a crutch" or something like that. Yes. It is certainly a dynamic in this crazy game of swing but relying on such a thing long term is an inevitable recipe for failure!

 

[MrPokerVerse]

Both of these are over-stated in my opinion. I agree that you do not have to be lucky to consistently win but luck or perhaps more specifically variance is a HUGE part of the game. Even pro crushers who earn 10+ BB / hr have discussed 150 hour break even spans, ridiculous coolers in huge pots that happen so infrequently they can crush your win rate, and all other manner of downswings that hit some players much harder than others. This is even further magnified for tournament players. That one AA vs KK hand in a tournament where you hit your K and win could be the difference between making the final table or not. In an event like the WSOP main event that could literally make or break your career because you got lucky at the right time (instead of blowing half your roll on a tournament you couldn't really afford, getting frustrated at the grind, missing the money bubble and deciding to dedicate more time to something else you hit your draw make the final table and 7 figures and continue to work on your game. Either way you were a winning player but in one case you got lucky and re-focused and stayed with it). If you play long enough (2k hours live or 100k hands online or whatever) then you SHOULD work your way back towards the middle of your expected win rate but the difference between running bad and running good is HUGE.

For a more personal example, last year I only logged 250 ish hours but my win rate was over 15 BB / hr. This year over 365 hour I'm at like 4.5 BB / hr so far. That's a HUGE difference. Am I really playing well enough to make 15 BB / hr? Probably not. Am I really playing at the level of the average 4.5 BB / hr player or am I running bad? Realistically the answer is usually in the middle somewhere but just the fact that the ranges are so wide proves how huge it is to be lucky or run good in my opinion.

Is 20% of winning KK vs AA one out of five tries bad luck? Didn't make the final table on that tournament. Not sure if that is over or under-stating. Luck is a two way street, not a one way dead end. You will have both bad and good, in the long run it shouldn't be a factor for a consistent skilled player.

 

[blueskies]

Luck is EXTREMELY important.

It is true that skillful players should be winners in the long run, but when bad luck or good luck strikes will determine how much money is won or lost.

A bad beat in a huge pot will a long time to recover.

 

[PHX]

Luck cannot be controlled it just happens.

You can be lucky one hand of game and unlucky the next hand a game.

Everyone takes beats and everyone gets lucky at some point.

What you can control is the effect of it on you. i.e. How you bounce back from taking a beat and how you make the most of the chips that you won from a hand that you normally should loose.

 

[DS3]

c0rnB34d

I agree with your post.

First, lets face it, even the very best players bluff far less than people think they do. That said, a bluff by definition is a player taking matters in their own hands and creating their own luck.

As for every other hand they (or the regular we) are dealt each starts with the cards you are dealt. If they are poor cards you muck them, if potentially good then you attempt to exploit them.

The foundation of making a good play (or playing well period) is capitalizing on the luck of being dealt playable cards in the first place.

 

[thetzarofpoker]

Luck is a by-product of hard work. Winning consistently has nothing to do with luck. Might get a hand here or there, everyone does, you wont find success there though.

I desagree, I`ve been in tournaments where practicly lose all hands, all of them, I`ve seen ocations where people whom had never play holdem, have won over very experienced players..

Luck exist and it has a pattern ... diferent for each person but it its there..

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Is 20% of winning KK vs AA one out of five tries bad luck? Didn't make the final table on that tournament. Not sure if that is over or under-stating. Luck is a two way street, not a one way dead end. You will have both bad and good, in the long run it shouldn't be a factor for a consistent skilled player.

I think most people would consider it unlucky to run a huge stack into another huge stack on Day 4 of the WSOP main event and lose with AA vs KK. Obviously 20% equity isn't like hitting a 1 outter but this is just an example to show that two players of equal skill level could have drastically different results based on a single hand holding up. If your AA holds up maybe you coast on to win 2 million while if it doesn't you are -$10,000. Furthermore, you may only get a hand full of opportunities in a poker career to get it in with millions on the line with 80% or more equity. I think you're making my point by recognizing how easy it is to lose in those situations. If you are unlucky enough that those happen to be the largest pots or the largest tournaments it has a profound impact on your bottom line no matter how good you play. To discount it as not a big deal that one guy gets to be a millionaire and the other of equal skill maybe makes 100k for the year seems silly. That doesn't mean you can't win or be successful without luck but I think you should still recognize the impact it can have.

 

[thetzarofpoker]

Luck cannot be controlled it just happens.

You can be lucky one hand of game and unlucky the next hand a game.

Everyone takes beats and everyone gets lucky at some point.

What you can control is the effect of it on you. i.e. How you bounce back from taking a beat and how you make the most of the chips that you won from a hand that you normally should loose.

i really believe that with time, patience, dicipline, mental enforcement, you can
deal with luck, you may no be able to change ir, but for example you could change estrategy few time, o maybe sit out for a while..

 

[Zorba]

In my opinion having Luck is Essential to be a winner, lets talk about experiences, definitions, ways to call it, and ways to deal and manage it.. :icon_cycl

I think this could be very interesting and we can try others people methods they share..

All I know about luck is that it is better to have it than not to have it.

I have lots of luck, problem is it's all bad.

:bandit:

 

[YKCaiTLH1314]

Gambler depend on luck to win.
Poker player use skill and strategy to cancel the luck on gambler.

 

[tehb1987]

And yet without luck anywhere. Any hand is nothing without luck. Any trash wins. Whatever skills you have. There are days when the game does not add up at all. Straight, flush, four of a kind, sets... It all adds up to the opponents on the Board. And you look and think where you have sinned... Any starting hand is smashed to smithereens. And expects nothing except minus if to the river to hang on

 

[beldin2010]

Luck is essential to win anything. I was hit by a truck so many times that even stop playing for almost an year writing to hosting site support that something is not right with their software. I mean that I was so many times in position where on the flop I have around 85% to 95% chance to win but destiny had different plans.To be honest I had bad beats but not so many as I had fallen. Indeed bankroll management is very important .

 

[Transcendence]

I believe luck is for suckers! I know only skill, play Poker and vision of the game. Only skill can win, no luck will help. AND WHAT YOU CALL LUCK, IS CALLED ACCIDENT.

 

[Zorba]

I believe luck is for suckers! I know only skill, play Poker and vision of the game. Only skill can win, no luck will help. AND WHAT YOU CALL LUCK, IS CALLED ACCIDENT.

OK, How many tournaments have you won without luck or ACCIDENT and only your skill. :hmmmm:

:bebored:

 

[dbchristy]

Im the unluckiest then..LOL or Im just plain bad, or dont use BRM..ect I do get jelly of the all in donks with the bad playing, and the huge stack, and think they the luckiest person alive. But viewing their sharkscope, its the big picture. With proper BRM, you can acct for varience. or Luck which ever we choose to call it..

 

[thetzarofpoker]

Gambler depend on luck to win.
Poker player use skill and strategy to cancel the luck on gambler.

Tell that when you lose an AA vs 29 or something similar, it happens a lot of times..

 

[jadaminato]

Luck, regardless of your ability, can make you lose a tournament. But to win it, it is necessary that the two work together.
I have seen many bingo players who, with lucky shots, go far, even to the final table. But to win it takes more than that.

 

[YKCaiTLH1314]

Tell that when you lose an AA vs 29 or something similar, it happens a lot of times..

That means you are a poker player to survive so many times of such brutal result. You keep playing again and again knowing that variance will happen no matter how skillful you are, am i right?
As for gambler, when they shove you in with 29, they are very well prepared to lose. Even knowing that their chances are like 15% against your Aces, yet they still do it. They are gambling with luck.
I believe you know very well that to go far, you need discipline and healthy bankroll. Never tilt and never go broke.

 

[kraemer]

I think you can't win anything in poker without luck.
What You can do though is to influence how much of it you need.

You can lose with AA vs. 27 off, but your opponent needs a whole lot of luck for that to happen, while you only need very little of it to win.

I don't know if it all equals out in "the long run"... Maybe it does. Maybe some people actually are more lucky then others and some will have bad luck... Statistics don't guarantee you an outcome according to them.

But playing well guarantees that you receive the best result possible with the amount of luck you have.