In my opinion having Luck is Essential to be a winner, lets talk about experiences, definitions, ways to call it, and ways to deal and manage it..

I think this could be very interesting and we can try others people methods they share..

Luck is a by-product of hard work. Winning consistently has nothing to do with luck. Might get a hand here or there, everyone does, you wont find success there though.

Originally Posted by thetzarofpoker

In my opinion having Luck is Essential to be a winner, lets talk about experiences, definitions, ways to call it, and ways to deal and manage it..

I think this could be very interesting and we can try others people methods they share..

Originally Posted by MrPokerVerse

Luck is a by-product of hard work. Winning consistently has nothing to do with luck. Might get a hand here or there, everyone does, you wont find success there though.

Both of these are over-stated in my opinion. I agree that you do not have to be lucky to consistently win but luck or perhaps more specifically variance is a HUGE part of the game. Even pro crushers who earn 10+ BB / hr have discussed 150 hour break even spans, ridiculous coolers in huge pots that happen so infrequently they can crush your win rate, and all other manner of downswings that hit some players much harder than others. This is even further magnified for tournament players. That one AA vs KK hand in a tournament where you hit your K and win could be the difference between making the final table or not. In an event like the WSOP main event that could literally make or break your career because you got lucky at the right time (instead of blowing half your roll on a tournament you couldn't really afford, getting frustrated at the grind, missing the money bubble and deciding to dedicate more time to something else you hit your draw make the final table and 7 figures and continue to work on your game. Either way you were a winning player but in one case you got lucky and re-focused and stayed with it). If you play long enough (2k hours live or 100k hands online or whatever) then you SHOULD work your way back towards the middle of your expected win rate but the difference between running bad and running good is HUGE.

For a more personal example, last year I only logged 250 ish hours but my win rate was over 15 BB / hr. This year over 365 hour I'm at like 4.5 BB / hr so far. That's a HUGE difference. Am I really playing well enough to make 15 BB / hr? Probably not. Am I really playing at the level of the average 4.5 BB / hr player or am I running bad? Realistically the answer is usually in the middle somewhere but just the fact that the ranges are so wide proves how huge it is to be lucky or run good in my opinion.

I agree with you, luck influences the game, I have seen bad players regularly reach final tables, and good players who have not had good results, some people are luckier than
others.

Originally Posted by dompoker

I agree with you, luck influences the game, I have seen bad players regularly reach final tables, and good players who have not had good results, some people are luckier than
others.

This is not the definition of a lucky bad player.

Originally Posted by MrPokerVerse

This is not the definition of a lucky bad player.

I assumed he meant different sets of bad players at final tables. If the same "bad player" is frequently showing up at the final table they are probably not as bad as you think.

I still reference in my mind something Chris Ferguson said years ago. Something like, "Luck is a variable but quite often bad players lean on it like a crutch" or something like that. Yes. It is certainly a dynamic in this crazy game of swing but relying on such a thing long term is an inevitable recipe for failure!

Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d

Both of these are over-stated in my opinion. I agree that you do not have to be lucky to consistently win but luck or perhaps more specifically variance is a HUGE part of the game. Even pro crushers who earn 10+ BB / hr have discussed 150 hour break even spans, ridiculous coolers in huge pots that happen so infrequently they can crush your win rate, and all other manner of downswings that hit some players much harder than others. This is even further magnified for tournament players. That one AA vs KK hand in a tournament where you hit your K and win could be the difference between making the final table or not. In an event like the WSOP main event that could literally make or break your career because you got lucky at the right time (instead of blowing half your roll on a tournament you couldn't really afford, getting frustrated at the grind, missing the money bubble and deciding to dedicate more time to something else you hit your draw make the final table and 7 figures and continue to work on your game. Either way you were a winning player but in one case you got lucky and re-focused and stayed with it). If you play long enough (2k hours live or 100k hands online or whatever) then you SHOULD work your way back towards the middle of your expected win rate but the difference between running bad and running good is HUGE.

For a more personal example, last year I only logged 250 ish hours but my win rate was over 15 BB / hr. This year over 365 hour I'm at like 4.5 BB / hr so far. That's a HUGE difference. Am I really playing well enough to make 15 BB / hr? Probably not. Am I really playing at the level of the average 4.5 BB / hr player or am I running bad? Realistically the answer is usually in the middle somewhere but just the fact that the ranges are so wide proves how huge it is to be lucky or run good in my opinion.

Is 20% of winning KK vs AA one out of five tries bad luck? Didn't make the final table on that tournament. Not sure if that is over or under-stating. Luck is a two way street, not a one way dead end. You will have both bad and good, in the long run it shouldn't be a factor for a consistent skilled player.

Luck is EXTREMELY important.

It is true that skillful players should be winners in the long run, but when bad luck or good luck strikes will determine how much money is won or lost.

A bad beat in a huge pot will a long time to recover.

Luck cannot be controlled it just happens.

You can be lucky one hand of game and unlucky the next hand a game.

Everyone takes beats and everyone gets lucky at some point.

What you can control is the effect of it on you. i.e. How you bounce back from taking a beat and how you make the most of the chips that you won from a hand that you normally should loose.

c0rnB34d

I agree with your post.

First, lets face it, even the very best players bluff far less than people think they do. That said, a bluff by definition is a player taking matters in their own hands and creating their own luck.

As for every other hand they (or the regular we) are dealt each starts with the cards you are dealt. If they are poor cards you muck them, if potentially good then you attempt to exploit them.

The foundation of making a good play (or playing well period) is capitalizing on the luck of being dealt playable cards in the first place.

Originally Posted by MrPokerVerse

Luck is a by-product of hard work. Winning consistently has nothing to do with luck. Might get a hand here or there, everyone does, you wont find success there though.

I desagree, I`ve been in tournaments where practicly lose all hands, all of them, I`ve seen ocations where people whom had never play holdem, have won over very experienced players..

Luck exist and it has a pattern ... diferent for each person but it its there..

Originally Posted by MrPokerVerse

Is 20% of winning KK vs AA one out of five tries bad luck? Didn't make the final table on that tournament. Not sure if that is over or under-stating. Luck is a two way street, not a one way dead end. You will have both bad and good, in the long run it shouldn't be a factor for a consistent skilled player.

I think most people would consider it unlucky to run a huge stack into another huge stack on Day 4 of the WSOP main event and lose with AA vs KK. Obviously 20% equity isn't like hitting a 1 outter but this is just an example to show that two players of equal skill level could have drastically different results based on a single hand holding up. If your AA holds up maybe you coast on to win 2 million while if it doesn't you are -$10,000. Furthermore, you may only get a hand full of opportunities in a poker career to get it in with millions on the line with 80% or more equity. I think you're making my point by recognizing how easy it is to lose in those situations. If you are unlucky enough that those happen to be the largest pots or the largest tournaments it has a profound impact on your bottom line no matter how good you play. To discount it as not a big deal that one guy gets to be a millionaire and the other of equal skill maybe makes 100k for the year seems silly. That doesn't mean you can't win or be successful without luck but I think you should still recognize the impact it can have.

Originally Posted by joeisi

Luck cannot be controlled it just happens.

You can be lucky one hand of game and unlucky the next hand a game.

Everyone takes beats and everyone gets lucky at some point.

What you can control is the effect of it on you. i.e. How you bounce back from taking a beat and how you make the most of the chips that you won from a hand that you normally should loose.

i really believe that with time, patience, dicipline, mental enforcement, you can
deal with luck, you may no be able to change ir, but for example you could change estrategy few time, o maybe sit out for a while..

Originally Posted by thetzarofpoker

In my opinion having Luck is Essential to be a winner, lets talk about experiences, definitions, ways to call it, and ways to deal and manage it..

I think this could be very interesting and we can try others people methods they share..

All I know about luck is that it is better to have it than not to have it.

I have lots of luck, problem is it's all bad.

Gambler depend on luck to win.
Poker player use skill and strategy to cancel the luck on gambler.

And yet without luck anywhere. Any hand is nothing without luck. Any trash wins. Whatever skills you have. There are days when the game does not add up at all. Straight, flush, four of a kind, sets... It all adds up to the opponents on the Board. And you look and think where you have sinned... Any starting hand is smashed to smithereens. And expects nothing except minus if to the river to hang on

Luck is essential to win anything. I was hit by a truck so many times that even stop playing for almost an year writing to hosting site support that something is not right with their software. I mean that I was so many times in position where on the flop I have around 85% to 95% chance to win but destiny had different plans.To be honest I had bad beats but not so many as I had fallen. Indeed bankroll management is very important .

I believe luck is for suckers! I know only skill, play Poker and vision of the game. Only skill can win, no luck will help. AND WHAT YOU CALL LUCK, IS CALLED ACCIDENT.

Originally Posted by Transcendence

I believe luck is for suckers! I know only skill, play Poker and vision of the game. Only skill can win, no luck will help. AND WHAT YOU CALL LUCK, IS CALLED ACCIDENT.

OK, How many tournaments have you won without luck or ACCIDENT and only your skill.

Im the unluckiest then..LOL or Im just plain bad, or dont use BRM..ect I do get jelly of the all in donks with the bad playing, and the huge stack, and think they the luckiest person alive. But viewing their sharkscope, its the big picture. With proper BRM, you can acct for varience. or Luck which ever we choose to call it..

Originally Posted by YKCaiTLH1314

Gambler depend on luck to win.
Poker player use skill and strategy to cancel the luck on gambler.

Tell that when you lose an AA vs 29 or something similar, it happens a lot of times..

Luck, regardless of your ability, can make you lose a tournament. But to win it, it is necessary that the two work together.
I have seen many bingo players who, with lucky shots, go far, even to the final table. But to win it takes more than that.

Originally Posted by thetzarofpoker

Tell that when you lose an AA vs 29 or something similar, it happens a lot of times..

That means you are a poker player to survive so many times of such brutal result. You keep playing again and again knowing that variance will happen no matter how skillful you are, am i right?
As for gambler, when they shove you in with 29, they are very well prepared to lose. Even knowing that their chances are like 15% against your Aces, yet they still do it. They are gambling with luck.
I believe you know very well that to go far, you need discipline and healthy bankroll. Never tilt and never go broke.

I think you can't win anything in poker without luck.
What You can do though is to influence how much of it you need.

You can lose with AA vs. 27 off, but your opponent needs a whole lot of luck for that to happen, while you only need very little of it to win.

I don't know if it all equals out in "the long run"... Maybe it does. Maybe some people actually are more lucky then others and some will have bad luck... Statistics don't guarantee you an outcome according to them.

But playing well guarantees that you receive the best result possible with the amount of luck you have.

Originally Posted by YKCaiTLH1314

Gambler depend on luck to win.
Poker player use skill and strategy to cancel the luck on gambler.

desagree.. not always estrategy works, luck always works--- it change constantly thats the secret..

Originally Posted by thetzarofpoker

desagree.. not always estrategy works, luck always works--- it change constantly thats the secret..

Disagree.
Gambler blame on luck when they lose.
Poker player blame themselves and improve.
Nobody can improve on luck but you can improve on skill.


You quoted earlier on AA losing to 29.
Run the board 1000 times.
The 29 gambler won't even make it to the 100th dealing.

Luck is an undeniably important thing in poker, but not crucial. I think the experience and skills of the player are more important than luck.

my luck is around the corner, watching and laughing

when luck is not on my side. I play games of reduced variance which essentially consists of no longer playing flipet to have the goal of going to the showdown. It allows me to survive while waiting to see if luck will turn. but in the opposite case it is the loss to insure because at some moments of the game. You're forced to play flips. Personally this week she did not give me any gifts. I lost with all my AA KK and all the good hands that can go through your mind. but I know that in the long run it's normal. So I'm just trying to play my A game and get ready because I think doyle bronson was right when he said luck is what happens when preparation meets the opportunity.

Hello,

Luck is such a mystical force that splits, multiples, stretches goes and comes from a poker table. It can work very well or it can make you want to disappear when you fould a hand that hits full house on the river.
That's why I think you should pay attention, focuse and play chips smart. You never know when luck desides to blast your hand..

Originally Posted by kraemer

But playing well guarantees that you receive the best result possible with the amount of luck you have.

Agree with your post in general but this last sentence I take issue with. Since we can never know in advance how much luck we will have, playing well does not guarantee the best possible result. You can make terrible plays where you should have folded or should not have bluffed or called and instead end up winning tons of pots you had no business even being in. I would agree that playing well allows you to be more profitable without having to get lucky, but not that it has any correlation to results in a single hand or even a single session. We've all seen sessions where the fish hits every draw and runs up a huge stack playing horribly. If they made the correct calls and folds they would not have had to get lucky but they also would not have all those chips in front of them when they did get lucky. Double edged sword.

Originally Posted by YKCaiTLH1314

Disagree.
Gambler blame on luck when they lose.
Poker player blame themselves and improve.
Nobody can improve on luck but you can improve on skill.


You quoted earlier on AA losing to 29.
Run the board 1000 times.
The 29 gambler won't even make it to the 100th dealing.

It`s not about improve luck, it`s about improving your beheibor when you are constantly losing goods an well played hands.. player`s actitud can call or call of luck.. well on my experience..

Originally Posted by YKCaiTLH1314

Disagree.
Gambler blame on luck when they lose.
Poker player blame themselves and improve.
Nobody can improve on luck but you can improve on skill.


You quoted earlier on AA losing to 29.
Run the board 1000 times.
The 29 gambler won't even make it to the 100th dealing.

There is not a poker player here that wouldn't want AA VS 29. If I lose that hand, it is not good or bad luck. I'll take the odds over a the occasional suck out.

Originally Posted by MrPokerVerse

Luck is a by-product of hard work. Winning consistently has nothing to do with luck. Might get a hand here or there, everyone does, you wont find success there though.

You're talking about skill, it has nothing to do with luck.

Luck is nothing but art. Some people stare at art objects and see some painting or sculpture and have no special feelings about it, others observe art objects and see a miracle.

Everyone is lucky, the fact that we've been born is obvious act of luck. Some people are simply not using their luck to create new opportunities to get even more lucky. Confucius said " the journey of 1000 miles begins with a small step" so sometimes we have "to walk 1000 miles" to meet our luck, but quite often majority of people are too lazy or too scared to make the first step or they even walk in the wrong direction. There are 2 major ways to meet your luck: 1) to clearly see where you're going to 2) to try and walk as many ways as possible.

Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d

Agree with your post in general but this last sentence I take issue with. Since we can never know in advance how much luck we will have, playing well does not guarantee the best possible result. You can make terrible plays where you should have folded or should not have bluffed or called and instead end up winning tons of pots you had no business even being in. I would agree that playing well allows you to be more profitable without having to get lucky, but not that it has any correlation to results in a single hand or even a single session. We've all seen sessions where the fish hits every draw and runs up a huge stack playing horribly. If they made the correct calls and folds they would not have had to get lucky but they also would not have all those chips in front of them when they did get lucky. Double edged sword.

Not looking for a single hand or a session to gauge anything. If the less skilled players didn't stack off with the worse hand, they would never deposit again. Being ahead on a hand and losing it for me is odds, not luck. Getting in ahead is the win, regardless of the results.

Originally Posted by thetzarofpoker

In my opinion having Luck is Essential to be a winner, lets talk about experiences, definitions, ways to call it, and ways to deal and manage it..

I think this could be very interesting and we can try others people methods they share..

ive said it before but i will say it again, and im quoting kevin martin on this, im sure he heard it somewhere. "In the short term poker is all about luck, in the long term it is all about skill." i find this to be so accurate, like to win a tourney or have a winning session you have to have skill to be patient and pick your spots, but i find every session or trourney there is maybe 1 hand where i get lucky and crack aces, or outflop AK.

Originally Posted by finaltable1

You're talking about skill, it has nothing to do with luck.

Luck is nothing but art. Some people stare at art objects and see some painting or sculpture and have no special feelings about it, others observe art objects and see a miracle.

Everyone is lucky, the fact that we've been born is obvious act of luck. Some people are simply not using their luck to create new opportunities to get even more lucky. Confucius said " the journey of 1000 miles begins with a small step" so sometimes we have "to walk 1000 miles" to meet our luck, but quite often majority of people are too lazy or too scared to make the first step or they even walk in the wrong direction. There are 2 major ways to meet your luck: 1) to clearly see where you're going to 2) to try and walk as many ways as possible.

Seems like Confucius was a fan of hard work. That or they enjoyed walking.

Skill and luck are brothers, skill needs hard work, luck needs skill to wait your time.

If you rely on luck to win, I have to assume your poker skills are not very good. Luck can swing either way, skill is knowing how and when to capitalize on luck and knowing when to walk away if your luck takes a turn. Even knowing how to stay in the game when your luck is bad without going broke.

Originally Posted by thetzarofpoker

It`s not about improve luck, it`s about improving your beheibor when you are constantly losing goods an well played hands.. player`s actitud can call or call of luck.. well on my experience..

Exactly why i mentioned earlier about skill and 'Strategy'.
If you aren't good enough to deal with villain cracking your Aces with 29, then you need to improve on your Anti-tilt strategy.
What makes the differences between me and Daniel Negreanu is;
He is better in skill
He is better in strategy
He is better to handle bad beat
He is better bankrolled
He is better in exposure with years of experience

Now, when you have the above 5 mentioned, then you talk about LUCK to win a tournament.
If you are depending on pure luck to win without any of these 5 elements, you are like dumping your money into the vast sea.
In fact, you'll have a better chance of winning with playing slot machine, better payout than poker at least.

Edited:
Forgot to mention this. If there's a chance for me to play with Daniel Neg, the outcome;
If i won = i'm lucky
If i lose = he is better

Originally Posted by MrPokerVerse

Not looking for a single hand or a session to gauge anything. If the less skilled players didn't stack off with the worse hand, they would never deposit again. Being ahead on a hand and losing it for me is odds, not luck. Getting in ahead is the win, regardless of the results.

Your point here and the point I was making are not the same. I agree with your point here. When discussing luck I'm talking more sustained events or infrequent events with life changing consequences. When you mention odds in your post you are setting an expectation that you will win a certain percentage of the time. Some players run well above that EV curve while others run well below. Both players could be of equal skill but have drastically different results. This is what I'm talking about when I'm talking about luck. If you watched someone go all in and get called holding a set against a flush draw and lose 10 times out of 10 would you consider that unlucky given that the odds dictate the average player in the spot wins around 7 out of 10. Now lets take it another step and say those 10 were not all in a row but those were the 10 largest pots that player ever played which resulted in losing tens of thousands of dollars. That doesn't seem unlucky to you? Now lets pretend that guys opponent was the same in all 10 hands. That doesn't seem lucky to you? I know I'm creating crazy scenarios but statistically speaking it takes thousands or tens of thousands of trials to get to a point where we can write off variance with respect to expected outcomes and there are many ways that players are at the mercy of variance and can have vastly different results based on it. In general playing poker, especially live, a player will often not last through the thousands of trails if they are well below that curve and go broke or give up in frustration first. That is my only point. You still do not have to be lucky to win. But luck is a huge factor in any players results.

Originally Posted by MrPokerVerse

Seems like Confucius was a fan of hard work. That or they enjoyed walking.

Confucius is the on who influenced eastern culture. Because of his influence in the past they've invented gun powder, paper, silk and many other useful things.

If you can compare eastern and western culture through most popular art today, which is visual art, you can clearly see the difference.

In eastern movies main character was beat by 2 criminals at the street, what he decides to do? he walks to the mountains, spends 5 years practicing martial arts, returns to his town and beats all criminal activity there...

What do we see in western movies? Main character meets an alien who gives him super powers, or he's insanely rich and smart since he been born, or radioactive spider bites him, and that's why he becomes a coolest guy in town and beats all criminal activity cause he's a super hero.

What is real and what is not? You can spend 5 years practicing martial arts and become a UFC fighter one day, or you can wait until radioactive chicken will bite you one day and you'll become a chickenman superhero and fly high above rooftops.

Originally Posted by thetzarofpoker

In my opinion having Luck is Essential to be a winner, lets talk about experiences, definitions, ways to call it, and ways to deal and manage it..

I think this could be very interesting and we can try others people methods they share..

If you really think so, then I sincerely sympathize with you. That is all I can say.

Without having a luck You can't win a tournament. One of component of this game is luck. When you play a tournament always come a moment when luck is needed.

Originally Posted by finaltable1

wait until radioactive chicken will bite you one day and you'll become a chickenman superhero and fly high above rooftops.

Stay in the queue. You forgot to mention you still need Luck for that chicken to bite you among so many Superhero-wannabe out in the street

Originally Posted by YKCaiTLH1314

Stay in the queue. You forgot to mention you still need Luck for that chicken to bite you among so many Superhero-wannabe out in the street

Exactly! "wannabe" It's a nice word btw!

What I was trying to say there in my posts above?

Oh yeah

I've tried to explain the difference between real luck that we can get by creating new opportunities for ourselves and the luck that lives in some peoples dreams and happens as often as tornado builds a working plane using parts of twisted sea ships.

Art creates culture, culture forms behavior, behavior creates lifestyle. From such point of view normal people must ignore majority of media products, cause movies/songs/games are forming virtual stereotypes in heads of the people, and instead of trying their luck in the real world people prefer to be unlucky in the reality but feel happy when they see their favorite actor/artist/game character. 100 year life is just 876K hours, and such things like Avatar movie or Breaking Bad/Game of Thrones are wasting billions of human hours for nothing, giving fake dreams and fake idols and making people too scared to test their luck in something real and useful for the society. Nuclear bomb will instantly erase thousands of human lifes, Game of Throne will do the same but slowly and "with pleasure". Who is more lucky? The one who lives his life or the one who observes how imaginary people are living their story at his screen?

Originally Posted by YKCaiTLH1314

That means you are a poker player to survive so many times of such brutal result. You keep playing again and again knowing that variance will happen no matter how skillful you are, am i right?
As for gambler, when they shove you in with 29, they are very well prepared to lose. Even knowing that their chances are like 15% against your Aces, yet they still do it. They are gambling with luck.
I believe you know very well that to go far, you need discipline and healthy bankroll. Never tilt and never go broke.

imagine you are in a final table a have AA and BB is chip leader and goes all in.... and nobody calls, it just you to call... you Fold or Call ?? I´m Going to tell you the rigth answer.... It depends how lucky is threath you at that moment if you had have some bad luck in some hands better fold and wait, if you had have good results at that time better call. Luck is like sub atomic particles, it is all about chance, probability, momentum..

I do not believe in luck, believe in the mood for one. Depending on how you are in the day is depending on how you see the game !!

Originally Posted by thetzarofpoker

imagine you are in a final table a have AA and BB is chip leader and goes all in.... and nobody calls, it just you to call... you Fold or Call ?? I´m Going to tell you the rigth answer.... It depends how lucky is threath you at that moment if you had have some bad luck in some hands better fold and wait, if you had have good results at that time better call. Luck is like sub atomic particles, it is all about chance, probability, momentum..

depending on how your placed i would think about that as it has no effect to the chip leader if you bust and my aces always seem to crack in this situation lol at the end of the day luck and greed has alot to do with it along with skill and bankroll management.