I think the figure of $11~$12/hour is pretty low for $2/$5 live. I average more than that at $1/$2.
I am not saying you are wrong. I respect your opinion, and I think it's good to be realistic. However, live is just a different beast than online. Players are really, really bad.
I think a good player can easily make 10bb/hour average at a live table.
I agree with part of what your saying. A lot of the live players are really, really bad. I am one of those "young kids", and have only played 2 sessions of 1/2, but a lot of the play I've seen has been pretty poor.
My question is...when/how often do you play live? I've only played on Friday/Saturday nights. You run into a lot of "recreational players".. A lot of people that know the rules but don't quite know the strategies, who got the permission from the wife to go hang out at the casino for a couple hours.
I wonder what type of players are playing on Wednesday afternoon? I mean, if you're planning on playing 40-50 hours per week, I feel like you are playing against an extremely different demographic on Wednesday afternoon as opposed to Saturday night, and you might assume that your "expected win rate" would change if you aren't playing against a lot of the "recreational players" during a certain time.
Just a hypothesis. As for the OP, I agree with what everybody has said before Definitely keep a savings for only expenses. And I would suggest some sort of part-time job as well, even if its just 15-20 hours per week. (a guaranteed paycheck, as opposed to uncertain poker session result). I would also try to align the PT job with a time where it isn't as profitable to be playing poker (ie, not a waiter, friday and saturday nights are juicy at the 1/2 table!)
Another note: I would run this by the fiance before you even think about doing it.
I play as often as 5 times a week. Sometimes I take a break after run bad.
I have an app for my phone for tracking my poker sessions. I start it when I sit down, pause it when I leave the the table for a break, and stop it when session is over. I enter in my buy-in, and check out amounts. It is very helpful.
I actually do worse on Fridays and Saturdays than any other day. I always get coolered on those days for some reason, to spite the horrific play I encounter on those days.
Weekdays are better for me. The players may be better, but for the most part they are still bad. Everyone knows how to play, but they don't play well. It is just bingo every hand. People don't bluff all that often, but for some reason everyone always thinks everyone else is bluffing....
I only encounter about 2-3 players (10 seat table) at any given time that are as good or better than I am. I am not even that good. But I have experience, and I am a solid hand reader (at least most of the time).
To summarize my drawn out post:
Most players I encounter are bad players at live $1/$2. They play way too many hands, they continue too far post-flop with weak draws, and they make dumb calls on the river when they think their top pair no kicker is still good.
However, "occasionally the lamb slaughters the butcher", when these total dumb asses go on a heater. Anyone can win if they crush every flop with garbage hands.
The majority of the players sitting at live low stakes cash games will be bad. Really bad. Any day of the week. The weekends especially.
I agree with part of what your saying. A lot of the live players are really, really bad. I am one of those "young kids", and have only played 2 sessions of 1/2, but a lot of the play I've seen has been pretty poor.
My question is...when/how often do you play live? I've only played on Friday/Saturday nights. You run into a lot of "recreational players".. A lot of people that know the rules but don't quite know the strategies, who got the permission from the wife to go hang out at the casino for a couple hours.
I wonder what type of players are playing on Wednesday afternoon? I mean, if you're planning on playing 40-50 hours per week, I feel like you are playing against an extremely different demographic on Wednesday afternoon as opposed to Saturday night, and you might assume that your "expected win rate" would change if you aren't playing against a lot of the "recreational players" during a certain time.
Just a hypothesis. As for the OP, I agree with what everybody has said before Definitely keep a savings for only expenses. And I would suggest some sort of part-time job as well, even if its just 15-20 hours per week. (a guaranteed paycheck, as opposed to uncertain poker session result). I would also try to align the PT job with a time where it isn't as profitable to be playing poker (ie, not a waiter, friday and saturday nights are juicy at the 1/2 table!)
Another note: I would run this by the fiance before you even think about doing it.
hellmuth, I would not stop working! forget that, not a good idea! why? cause you WILL be broke one day and then you'll have to look desperatly for work. (not an option).
Here's what I do. I work 38h/week, so only weekends left for playing hardstyle.
In the week you can start exercising on pokerstars. As I read from your question, I don't think you're ready to make it already at the 1/2 blinds especcially not when you will have to put your bankroll at risk for living.
Try to build a bankroll on pokerstars (wich is really hard) I recommend to deposit min 100$ a month on pokerstars and play tournaments. In tournaments you will make a lot of mistakes wich you can evaluate after the game without losing money you can't afford.
If you think you're really ready?
go on friday or saturday (only 1 day) to casino. Start with regular freeze-outs and when you cash there you can try your shot with a small piece of your winnings at the cashtables for an hour or 2 maybe 3 (but trust me after a freeze-out you'ld better walk home if you win something)
When you see you can handle the players there at your local casino and you have a read on several guys, cause at a casino you will see the same people over and over most of the time then you can start your journey on the fulltime (friday or saturday, leave the freeze-outs for what they are) 1/2$ stakes.
On sunday you evaluate your game of the week by using pokeroffice, holdem genius or whatever there is on the market that is recommended. ( I prefer pokeroffice)
And from there on you will see that your game has a lot of improvement and then you can start investing online tournaments if you like, or just go for bigger cashgame at the local casino...I don't like to play cashgame online, but that's my opinion.
==> reason: pyramid system...a lot of players have huge bankrolls wich just will crush yours!...
Im playing 2/4 cashgame live now, difficult and a lot of aggressive players.
So unless you are confident about your game and you think you can handle it, I would just start like I said ^.
Keep the job imo. Playing live gets really old and boring, REALLY quick.
Keep the job and play 10-20 hours a week on the side and start really stacking bread for the next few years.
Playing poker is more old and boring than working a shit job? You just dont love the game enough...
That's kinda not fair to say. You may like playing poker now as a hobby. If you are playing poker 40+ hours a week, and you are playing with the stress of having poker be your main (or only) source of income, then your attitude towards the game might change than what it currently is now.
As you suggest in your original post, "Bottom line is i have a long term goal to just never work again...", but if you are going to be playing live poker for 40+ hours a week, it may become sort of like a job, and may carry along the stress and other negative traits that a "job" tend to carry
I should consider making some kind of equation of job vs poker where you input your income and bb/100 and then it shows what stake they're allowed to play in, and if it's worth it. I dunno if anyone has done that in history of poker but it'll be a good way for people to calculate and see if the stake they're playing is worth giving up their job.
Problems... What about health insurance? Never looked into how much this would cost w/out a job....
What about fun money? Taking my fiance out to dinner? I fear i will then become super cheap not wanting to spend any of my money ( Bankroll ) on anything fearing i will wipe through it and have to work again...