How many poker "pros" just ran hot at the right times and does it matter?

[quick]

More of just a musing, and perhaps more relevant to tournament poker, but how many mainstream or well known poker pros just ran great at the right times and were able to parlay that into a career, or at least enough profit to not need to worry if they win another big session or tournament?

Much like life, poker has a lot of luck.

Great examples: Players who bink a huge tournament , make a huge score that changes their financial life . Even more so for those early on who suddenly have a massive bankroll and if done right have little financial worry outside of poker after that score.

Variance is enormous in poker. Fate is made or sealed on 1 and 2 outers.

So how many pros would still be grinding smaller tournaments and games or would have been an unknown in poker if wasn't for a few good hands holding or a lucky river in a key moment?

Poker is an easy game when variance is on your side, and from a mental game perspective and even easier game when you've got some big wins behind you.

 

[Gallarado777]

That's right, by winning a couple of major tournaments, you can change your destiny and not need finances, I hope we all succeed

 

[fundiver199]

There is certain a lot of truth to this, and its sometimes referred to as "survivership bias". We hear about the success stories but dont hear about all the people, who tried and failed.

 

[heguli82]

I would take a look of group of players at late 90, or before if its the case, but when started to show poker more in tv...its change a lot. You could now see on tv when some guy get rich by playing cards. And who was better to sell that thoght then the actually big score winner

 

[MK_]

I can think of a couple... Moneymaker and Gold come to mind, ran hotter than hell and really haven't done much since, big difference from long term winners who win over and over and know what they're doing👍

 

[skaterick]

before those two big winners, robert varkonyi took down the 2002 main event . a very intelligent fellow(MIT grad ) that had incredible luck on his side .in my view , moneymaker is a real player ;the other two are not .

 

[DS3]

Danny Tang, who now plays little but high rollers (he plays the Triton series where just on this tour he has won $5 million) echoed what a few players have said about luck/variance . If I recall correctly it was in an interview with Sarah Herring several years ago.

Tang noted there were countless players of his ability. As a grinder he had done well and was offered backing to enter a high roller at which he did very well. He then secured further backing and was quickly on solid footing at higher stakes. Typically, within this scenario he said most newbies fail and it was all down to variance. The problem being many get one shot at such buy ins. If they have entered on their own dime, their confidence suffers along with backroll and the majority revert to lower stakes - many never attempting the high stakes again. If backed by a sponsor, then many are quick to withdraw support if a player fails.

Obviously, this is a specific scenario, but I appreciated the fact that Danny Tang admitted if he had failed, his career would be different and he understood luck played a positive role for him, but a negative role for so many others. The salient point being Tang is talking about those playing at an accomplished level already getting chance to play at the higher levels but most find the air very thin.

So yes, in the broader sense, I think many at the top enjoyed a sun run and then were smart enough to settle in, manage their new found bankroll properly and subsequently enjoy an extended career.

But...imagine the millions (it must be) that have tried and dropped by poker's wayside.