How do you play your streaks?

[rllngn]

Most of the times I stick to tourneys and sng's so I deal with up's and down's a lot. It's easier in tourneys because all you got to do is sit back and wait for the next streak to happen. I try to take advantage of when the cards seem to be going by way by opening up a little, and during bad times I figure it is never bad to pick up a blind to help it get a jump start.

 

[regd87]

Clubs are hot tonight = Recognizing when you're in a downswing.

Your previous results have NO bearing on your future results (unless you're tilting in which case you should stop playing).

Just because you lost 2 AI with AA in a row doesn't mean you're going to either win OR lose the next time. The cards have no memory and you can't know when or how variance will effect you. You can only play the current hand as well as possible. Thinking anything else is foolish.

I concur.

 

[TopJimmy99]

I don't think that it's wrong to anticipate the end of a hot streak of cards. If you've flopped monsters four or five hands in a row, I might consider limping or playing light with halfway decent cards to the flop because 1) a streak is going to end, it's just a matter of when, and 2) other players at the table are going to realize you've been playing big the past few hands and (depending on how many have been shown) might think you're starting to bluff. I'm not saying this is how I would absolutely play or how you should, but depending on the table I might do something like this. If I'm up against a couple of calling stations, it's only a matter of time before they suck out on me.

 

[yotalover]

I agree with going down in stakes. When you are running good, most people go up in stakes, eventually. But I'm not convinced people in generall go back down in stakes. Keep up the good work

Yota

 

[jazzaxe]

Find out the level where you are profitable and you have an adequate bankroll. If you have been beating that level before the downswing continue to play your best game without tilting at that level. If your downswing causes your bankroll to suffer, deposit enough to allow you continue at that level. Moving down should only be done if you lose confidence at the level you are playing. Being properly bankrolled allows for losing streaks and allows you to continue at the right level. If you lose 4 buy-ins and you move down a level it is going to take twice as long to get back up to your present level since you would have to win 8 buyins at the lower level to even yourself.

 

[Colbefc]

About 3 weeks ago I started multi tabling
micro stakes PLO on a new site with $50, I usually
play 4 tables at a time

Over 10 days I built my BR up to $200, in PLO the
variance/streaks are wild and I hit every river and
poker seemed oh so easy

then suddenly the poker gods flicked a switch and I
started missing every draw and my BR went down to
just over $100 in 5 days, what I normally do when I am
on ja losing streak is move down from 4 tables to 2 so any
losses are halved

then just as suddenly things turned again and I am up to
$180 again and poker is looking great again, but I know
it is only a matter of time before things change again

the think I have learnt is not to doubt the way you play
poker during a downswing, just keep on playing good poker
and things will turn round again

downswings are a horrible but inevitable product of
playing poker and we just have to accept them and know that
they will end and an upswing will soon be alongarty:

 

[Chemist]

nc_royals you started a very reasonable thread for discussion,
In the case of those who do not understand Plato's Cave it is probably not worth trying to explain. But it would be more polite if superior typists were to allow superior thinkers the space to think and discuss. Different opinions may be considered before being rejected, with a well stated explanation, with a preference for quality rather than quantity.

Quote from the original post: 'when you realize youre in a downswing'

Clearly this is an important first step to realize this.
Without realization and counter action it will just worsen the situation.

There are actually several other threads in cardschat relating to variance and tilt which discuss possible reasons for it such as personal circumstances affecting concentration.
Unfortunately there are no scientific or logical explanations for 'running hot'
and I don't think we want to get in to cosmic or supernatural discussions here, (which I probably should point out I have no personal beliefs in), although I do recognise and accept the term.

So returning to the original question:
'My question is this when you realize youre in a downswing... Do you change your games and move down in levels or do you continue to grind it out at the stakes you are'.

If you have recognised there is a problem, then it would be sensible to make adjustments that will firstly minimise the damage and secondly aid recovery.

Actually this is already covered in Bank Roll Management.
If the bankroll gets reduced, then to maintain the correct percentages to play at would require stepping down a level.

However that is a bit late to be reacting if a more positive approach can be taken. I actually have a theory of my own that in addition to BRM a bit of Luck Management can be beneficial. The theory has already been not understood and scorned by the cave dwellers in this thread here: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/learning-poker-57/building-a-baby-bankroll-181238/post-1596078.html
But basically it agrees with the original posted proposal to change your games and move down in levels when you realize you're in a downswing.

jazzaxe makes a good point:
'If you lose 4 buy-ins and you move down a level it is going to take twice as long to get back up to your present level since you would have to win 8 buyins at the lower level to even yourself'.

Of course true gamblers move up the levels to try and recoup their losses early, inevitably leading to total ruin.

Clearly though you only intend to play at the lower levels until you can recognise that whatever it was that was causing the bad streak has passed and then move back to the previous level to start recouping the losses and hopefully return to winning ways.

Of course it should also be remembered when changing levels that different levels also have different types of play and players.

So in conclusion, Yes, if you recognise something is not working, do something about it.

 

[Poker Orifice]

nc_royals you started a very reasonable thread for discussion,
In the case of those who do not understand Plato's Cave it is probably not worth trying to explain. But it would be more polite if superior typists were to allow superior thinkers the space to think and discuss. Different opinions may be considered before being rejected, with a well stated explanation, with a preference for quality rather than quantity.

Quote from the original post: 'when you realize youre in a downswing'

Clearly this is an important first step to realize this.
Without realization and counter action it will just worsen the situation.

There are actually several other threads in cardschat relating to variance and tilt which discuss possible reasons for it such as personal circumstances affecting concentration.
Unfortunately there are no scientific or logical explanations for 'running hot'
and I don't think we want to get in to cosmic or supernatural discussions here, (which I probably should point out I have no personal beliefs in), although I do recognise and accept the term.

So returning to the original question:
'My question is this when you realize youre in a downswing... Do you change your games and move down in levels or do you continue to grind it out at the stakes you are'.

If you have recognised there is a problem, then it would be sensible to make adjustments that will firstly minimise the damage and secondly aid recovery.

Actually this is already covered in Bank Roll Management.
If the bankroll gets reduced, then to maintain the correct percentages to play at would require stepping down a level.

However that is a bit late to be reacting if a more positive approach can be taken. I actually have a theory of my own that in addition to BRM a bit of Luck Management can be beneficial. The theory has already been not understood and scorned by the cave dwellers in this thread here: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/learning-poker-57/building-a-baby-bankroll-181238/post-1596078.html
But basically it agrees with the original posted proposal to change your games and move down in levels when you realize you're in a downswing.

jazzaxe makes a good point:
'If you lose 4 buy-ins and you move down a level it is going to take twice as long to get back up to your present level since you would have to win 8 buyins at the lower level to even yourself'.

Of course true gamblers move up the levels to try and recoup their losses early, inevitably leading to total ruin.

Clearly though you only intend to play at the lower levels until you can recognise that whatever it was that was causing the bad streak has passed and then move back to the previous level to start recouping the losses and hopefully return to winning ways.

Of course it should also be remembered when changing levels that different levels also have different types of play and players.

So in conclusion, Yes, if you recognise something is not working, do something about it.

".....when changing levels that different levels"

Is your whole post a 'level'??

In my cave-dwelling (mathematical) opinion, this thread seems to have veered farther & farther away from what I would deem as 'useful' advice for a proven/good player & now seems to be headed down the path to 'everything........ ' (< yup.. you guessed it!).

I think I need to go analyze my HH's from my last 100mtt's, to see if I'm 'currently' in a downswing..... cuz I'm considering entering the 5th Anniver. $5mil guar. on Stars next weekend.... but wouldn't want to do that 'if' I'm still 'in' it.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Variance exists but thinking you know when it's coming or doing anything based on that anticipation is flawed thinking. It's just as costly as calling without the right odds because you have a feeling about what's coming.

In other words it's silly superstitious thinking and it has no place in a good players mindset.

What I don't understand is how this ^ couldn't ring true in any player's mind? (even if they weren't aware before or are fairly new to the game or something... after reading this statement wouldn't the lightbulb go on?)

btw, tks for posting this - well-written, brief & perfectly to the point.

 

[doops]

Im Going to drop it. We will agree to disagree. Obviously you cant predict variance but I can sure recognize when Im in the middle of it and will choose to grind at a lighter price and when it turns around I will return to my normal bankroll games. It's a choice not exactly a right and wrong answer.

I get what you are saying. And when I do it -- and I do -- it's because my confidence is getting hammered, and I need to build that back up. I can usually do that at a lower level where the battering is not so financially painful, if it continues. The move down is more psychological than BRM-driven.

If things do not improve at the lower level, then I figure I need to fix me. Either something has gone wrong with my game or I am tilting more than I thought (not quite the same thing.) (I'm usually pretty aware of tilt.)

Usually, I do better at the lower level, my confidence gets better, and I can move back up again with some comfort.

I don't care much about winnings, since I am not close to a pro and do not need to stay at any particular level. I like to play, and I like to play more when the game is going well and when my head is clear. When I feel a bit of control. I don't often worry about getting back the lost money in short order, aka "levelling yourself." I worry about levelling my own self, not my bankroll. If moving down can help with that, that's my goal. The bankroll will follow.

Then there's the factor of regular wins vs regular losses at a particular table. A streak becomes pretty obvious, whether it's happenstance or playing ability. At any table where there is a luckbox, you may see others become more careful against him while his streak lasts. And they may swoop in on the unlucky one. It's a factor. Not a huge one, if it's simply variance. But it can have an effect on both you and the others. An unlucky streak is a reason for me to switch tables -- sometimes. Even a lucky streak can be-- if one is getting way too much respect. Not to change the variance, but to clean the perception slate. Plus a bit of superstition, I guess. God knows I've turned around a bad streak at times because others get sloppy against me.

 

[nc_royals]

Thanks for everyone's post. I didnt think it was going to be such a Hot Topic when I originally posted it.

I appreciate everyone's helpful thoughts, insights and opinions. I also appreciate those who know they are right and cant fathom anyone with a different opinion. That's what makes forums entertaining.

Goodluck on the tables

 

[ruth99]

The only streak that I have ever experienced is one at a table...maybe lasting hours...other than that...you lost me