Hello all and thanks for having me, and thanks for this thread - it's a great idea!
I'm trying to get my head around EV mathematics, and wondered if someone could help me (and others, perhaps!) get it straightened out, as I can't recreate the OP's calculations.
Let's take original example #6, Carbon Poker, as there OP gave all the relevant info.
[BTW, why does ITM stand for #places paid?] By the OP's formula EV = 200 [PP] * 10 [ITM] * (1/#players) [P]
For the outcome OP achieves it seems they used a #players figure of around 2899.65
confused
.
So that makes my EV figure 0.68973, which is 10x higher than OP's.
What gives?
So let's try this the way EV is calculated in full in other places.
EV = (Value of outcome A / chances of it happening) + (Value of outcome B / chances of it happening) + etc.
= 200/2899.65 + 0 [value of losing] = 0.068973
Cool, that's OP's figure.
So it seems that #places paid doesn't actually figure into the calculation. I think it would if it was a paid tourny. But it doesn't matter about the distribution of prizes, and for freerolls all the losing places count for zero.
So am I right in saying the formula is actually just:
Freeroll EV = Prizepool/#players ?
And paid tournament EV = (Prizepool - (unpaid places * buy-in)) / players ?
I'd love to get confirmation this is correct, or else some sharp reprimanding and advice if not!
Cheers!