Fluctuations

Boltneck

Boltneck

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Nov 1, 2007
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I apologise in advance to anyone who considers this to be a stupid question. However, personally I believe that the only such thing as a 'stupid' question is one that you do not know the answer to, but are too embarrassed to ask!

Over the past 12 months, I've played 10 seater limit ring games at various different levels, ranging from 10c / 20c right up to $2 / $4! I'd guess that over half of the hands I've played have been at 50c / $1, but there have been a significant number above that. I've had wins and losses at each and every level that I've played at, but overall I'm showing a profit of approximately $900.

Until joining this site, I had never heard of BRM. Now that I have, I am relaunching my poker playing experience sticking strictly to proper BRM.

What I have found when I played at higher levels (and sometimes not so high levels) is that I've had some good winning sessions, but then hit a bad patch - and lost my nerve and gone back to to lower levels. Until recently, I really didn't properly appreciate that even good players (certainly ones that are better than me) suffer bad runs. This concept of fluctuating fortunes (stupidly) never occurred to me. I'd have a couple of bad days in a row and would just assumed that I wasn't good enough and go back to a lower level to practice. I probably am not good enough, and may never be good enough, but now that I'm using proper BRM I may get to find that out!

I apologise for being rather unconcise, but I'll get to the point. What sort of fluctuations could a decent, solid (though not spectacular) player expect to see? I know that it's a bit like asking how long is a piece of string, but I really would like to know, so that when I next hit a bad patch, I don't loose my nerve and try another game / site / level etc.

Yes, I told you it was stupid, but I've said it now!!!!!!!!

Boltneck
 
pigpen02

pigpen02

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Aug 5, 2007
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2,978
The thing about proper bankroll management is that it will take care of this because of the ranges. Moving up will put you in the middle of a range for the new level. If you hit a long bad patch for whatever reason it will move you down a level. If it was just variance, you will build back up in a while and it will move you back up. If it was lack of skill, you will continue to play at the lower level and not lose as much. Believe in the system!
 
DetroitJimmy

DetroitJimmy

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Nov 19, 2007
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I believe varience is much higher in FL than NL.The major reason for this I think is people are almost always getting the correct price to draw.This may not be a fact,so someone correct me if I'm wrong.I tried playing FL after learning NL and I felt as though I was shooting myself in the foot!In the long run with proper bankroll management you should come ahead though.
 
pigpen02

pigpen02

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My variance in FL is SO much lower than mine at NL. I guess it depends on your skill at each (I suck at NL ring).
 
Boltneck

Boltneck

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Nov 1, 2007
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246
Thanks for the contributions guy. I did actually find an article on varience. It was somewhat vague, but of course it would have to be because the subject is in itself vague.

It did give some guidelines though, ie 6 seater expect higher varience than 10 seater. Heads up even more so. LAG higher varience than rock etc etc. All pretty logical / obvious, but helpful nevertheless.

Boltneck.
 
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