Where do your profits come from?

[WVHillbilly]

You wanna see a REALLY relevant stat? Look at your profits when you raise vs when you call a raise. Initative is a mutha****er!

 

[baudib1]

You wanna see a REALLY relevant stat? Look at your profits when you raise vs when you call a raise. Initative is a mutha****er!

ya I think of this a lot when debating whether or not to flat with AK to "keep dominated hands in."

 

[fx20736]

You wanna see a REALLY relevant stat? Look at your profits when you raise vs when you call a raise. Initative is a mutha****er!

I've looked at this before. It was such a huge leak for me that I basically stopped calling preflop raises except with 22-99, AQs AJs.

Over the past 29,566 hands I have only called a preflop raise 398 times (1.3%). My results: Won $ 5.38.

When I raise preflop:

Amt won: $ 244.17


btw: When I 3bet my BB/100: 205.28

Bet/ Raise or Fold.

Calling is double plus ungood.

 

[fx20736]

what about donkey players like me that dont have 1010 or JJ in their top 5 hands


i need nit training

You could sweat one of my sessions. Or I could give you all the nit training you want.

Spoiler

 

[baudib1]

Call OTB and float vs. people who c-bet too much and never DB, which should be most people at NL25 and lower.

 

[fx20736]

Call OTB and float vs. people who c-bet too much and never DB, which should be most people at NL25 and lower.

This doesn't work as well as you might think at 5nl (and works even less at 2nl).

But since you brought it up why not walk through some flops vs some villain types and talk about some good float opportunities.

 

[baudib1]

I think in general there are two types of villains to float really wide IP.

1. The ones who can fire a single barrel with A-high on a raggy board but give up. A lot of people can cbet but firing 2 OOP is tougher and something most low stakes regs simply can't do. Similarly, someone who is tight preflop may fire at an A-high flop with JJ but gives up quickly. In general I think many will give away their strength by the size of their cbets.

2. The ones who will c/f to any scare card on turn. I.E. PFR cbets pot on T98 two-tone board. This is a great spot to float and represent everything that comes on the turn, which is going to be at least half the deck.

other opportunities:
1. Paired boards with face cards. A lot of low stakes players will always slowplay a strong hand like trips on the flop so a c-bet here will mean they don't have it (there are few nut combos they can have anyway on a QQ3 board) and will expect you to slowplay, your smooth call on the flop will represent a slowplayed monster.

2. Tight PFRs who have very little Ax in their range and c-bet/give up on A/K high boards.

 

[pokerhuds]

I'll play along.

Winnings from AA & KK: 64%
TT-AA & AK: 118%

I play heads up, so you can't really compare these numbers with someone playing 6-max or full ring. I didn't filter by stakes so this includes data from 50NL to 400NL.

I'm glad you posted this question, you inspired me to go through my database and take a look at my starting hands. It's been awhile since I've done that.

 

[xdeucesx]

lol that might be my favorite of all the FX Spoilers

Frampton rocks

 

[No Brainer]

I am fairly sure most people are going to be losers even when you take out just AA...

Over 100,000 hands I have won 3.2 times as much with AA+KK than I have in total. I have won 5.2 times as much with TT+, AK than I have in total.

I am not sure where you are going with this as most of the losses from the other hands will be from the blinds. If we take the blinds out of the question I have won around 50% of my total with TT+, AK...

Thanks so much and I cannot wait to get home and check my stats.


If this is, in fact the case for many players, it may in fact be the most staggering indictment against playing anything but nitty poker.


Think about it. If you make lots of money with big hands but lose with all the rest then why are you playing those cards?????????????????????????????

Did you even read the whole post?
Answers in bold...

 

[LuckyChippy]

Fx you tilt me so hard.

If I 3-bet once in my entire life and I won 3bb's I would have a win-rate of 3-betting of 300bb/100 (I think) Awwwww maaattee that's so sick my win-rate is so so sick.

But if I 3bet 10 times. Took it down 9 times and had to fold to a 4-bet once, my win-rate would be less (I can't be arsed working it out) BUT I WOULD MAKE MORE MONEY.

Your idea that I do this it makes me money or my win-rate is this is so wrong it tilts me so mother****in much sdhfiubreakjgrk;brgare'

 

[LuckyChippy]

Also yeah you know make more money calling raises with the hands you do now, but how much do you lose in blinds? frbg;uibeqip23#

 

[fx20736]

Also yeah you know make more money calling raises with the hands you do now, but how much do you lose in blinds? frbg;uibeqip23#

If you look at the positional stats I posted, without blinds the BB is my most profitable postion, followed by the Button and the Small blind is 3rd. I think my blind play isn't a huge leak in my game right now.

Also I make a crapload of money from 3betting.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Actually your WR from the SB is quite good but your BB rate is pretty bad. mpethybridge (2+2 stats guru) who does db analysis for a living says that -20bb/100 (small b) in the SB and -40bb/100 in the BB are standard rates (for winning players). Anything more and you have leaks. So your SB rate of -8bb/100 is great but your -58bb/100 rate from the BB more than offsets it.

 

[fx20736]

Actually your WR from the SB is quite good but your BB rate is pretty bad. mpethybridge (2+2 stats guru) who does db analysis for a living says that -20bb/100 (small b) in the SB and -40bb/100 in the BB are standard rates (for winning players). Anything more and you have leaks. So your SB rate of -8bb/100 is great but your -58bb/100 rate from the BB more than offsets it.

So I guess the next step is to determine if I would lose less in the BB by playing more or folding more.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Go here: http://doubleflypoker.blogspot.com/search/label/Guest Post

Read everything written by mpethybridge starting at the bottom and going up.

 

[papatango123]

Actually your WR from the SB is quite good but your BB rate is pretty bad. mpethybridge (2+2 stats guru) who does db analysis for a living says that -20bb/100 (small b) in the SB and -40bb/100 in the BB are standard rates (for winning players). Anything more and you have leaks. So your SB rate of -8bb/100 is great but your -58bb/100 rate from the BB more than offsets it.

whats a good bb/100 rate from other positions

my sb rate is -10bb/100
and my BB rate is -18/100

i take it this means my blind play is pretty good

 

[WVHillbilly]

whats a good bb/100 rate from other positions

my sb rate is -10bb/100
and my BB rate is -18/100

i take it this means my blind play is pretty good

Are those rates in bb or BB?? Either way they're not bad, if in bb/100 they are great. Also, sample size???

 

[papatango123]

Are those rates in bb or BB?? Either way they're not bad, if in bb/100 they are great. Also, sample size???

they are in bb over 260,000 hands 80k at 10nl the rest at 25nl

 

[WVHillbilly]

Very nice. What's your overall WR?

 

[xdeucesx]

im obv doing something wrong, bc my sb is -.20/100 -94$ over 11k hands at 5nl

how exactly do you come up w/the correct stat then? haha Im just looking at positions and scrolling down to sb/bb (for ptr3)

 

[papatango123]

Very nice. What's your overall WR?

my overall winrate is 3.4BB/100