Set Mining - May Analysis

[micromachine]

1 - If it's a very dry board and villain has a fold button I'd be more inclined to wait until the river to raise vs fish/stations/maniacs you may be better off raising the turn so you can get stacks in by the river.

2 - I think you're right to raise your set on this wet board what with 3 others still in the pot, think I'd prefer to raise to ~40bb though than shove, but sometimes I like shoving as it looks like a FD.

 

[Keith_MM]

i'd just click it back . if you make it 40bb you commit anyone calling to getting it all in .at 32bb they can still think they can get away but they are still making a big mistake calling. Commitment line is usually around the 25bb mark in that if you put more than 25bb in the pot you make a mistake folding out your equity. It was in a post on 2+2 but can't remember who wrote it and showed the maths.

 

[IPlay]

1 - If it's a very dry board and villain has a fold button I'd be more inclined to wait until the river to raise vs fish/stations/maniacs you may be better off raising the turn so you can get stacks in by the river.

2 - I think you're right to raise your set on this wet board what with 3 others still in the pot, think I'd prefer to raise to ~40bb though than shove, but sometimes I like shoving as it looks like a FD.

This, and when it comes down to it that board is not as wet as it seems. Since the Ah is on the board it takes away any suited aces that may have called pre and flopped a flush draw and with the 10h on the board it takes away a lot of connectors that would call pre with a flush draw like J10, 109, Q10, 108 and even K10.

UTG seems strong though, I wish I could see his stats but he probably has AK, 1010 or AA here?

 

[SeaRun]

SNIP<<<<<
UTG seems strong though, I wish I could see his stats but he probably has AK, 1010 or AA here?

I didn't notice his stats didn't come up, dunno why.

12/8 for 222 hands

http://gyazo.com/4e3006ebe23fe177e3801095e5fe90b5

Here's the full hand

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.73, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 2.08, Hands: 393)
UTG: 98.6 BB
UTG+1: 111.6 BB (VPIP: 14.65, PFR: 9.26, 3Bet Preflop: 3.59, Hands: 602)
MP: 78.4 BB (VPIP: 35.29, PFR: 27.06, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 86)
MP+1: 123.6 BB (VPIP: 18.49, PFR: 14.85, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 362)
Hero (MP+2): 105.2 BB
CO: 78.6 BB (VPIP: 58.33, PFR: 41.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BTN: 146.8 BB (VPIP: 11.36, PFR: 9.66, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 177)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 10.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 76)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 7:club: 7:diamond:

UTG raises to 3.4 BB, UTG+1 calls 3.4 BB, MP calls 3.4 BB, fold, Hero calls 3.4 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 3 BB, BB calls 2.4 BB

Flop: (20.4 BB, 6 players) T:heart: A:heart: 7:spade:
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets 15.6 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 101.8 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, UTG calls 79.6 BB and is all-in

Turn: (210.8 BB, 2 players) 6:club:

River: (210.8 BB, 2 players) 5:spade:

UTG shows J:diamond: A:spade: (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 45%, Flop 5%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows 7:club: 7:diamond: (Three of a Kind, Sevens) (Pre 55%, Flop 95%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 202 BB

 

[RodneyC86]

i'd just click it back . if you make it 40bb you commit anyone calling to getting it all in .at 32bb they can still think they can get away but they are still making a big mistake calling. Commitment line is usually around the 25bb mark in that if you put more than 25bb in the pot you make a mistake folding out your equity. It was in a post on 2+2 but can't remember who wrote it and showed the maths.

Yeah basically the concept is that you are still ahead and giving the chance for multiple people to draw out on you is like allowing them to give you more money. You just gotta know when your set is beat

It's entirely possible that any callers might be blocking each other's outs as well.

I think? Still I'm a puss and prefer shoving.