titans4ever
Legend
Silver Level
Everyone wants to max the value of their good hands, especially on the river. How much do you bet to keep them in and pay you off? Everyone is told and thinks to bet small to induce the call most of the time. It seems safe and works most of the time but are you really maximizing your money? How many times to do you need to get called with a larger bet to make the same or more money?
Example:
$25 NL game. You flopped top set and have bet it out from the flop with just one caller. The pot stands at $6 with a safe board (no straights or flushes possible). You are now trying to extract as much as you can for max value. What is your bet? The small safe $2 bet or the push the pot ($6).
Right now most will say bet the $2 because you get called more often. Say you get a call 60% of the time. Your average winnings for the hand will be $6(.4)+$10(.6) = $8.40. We will consider this the baseline since this is where most people are at right now.
How many times do you need to be called for the pot size bet to make it more profitable? 10%? 20%? Let's say you will only get called 1 in 5 times or 20%. Your average earning will be $6(.80)+ $18(.20) = $8.40. What? You increased your bet but called way less but are making the same amount of money.
You will only need to get called more than 1 in 5 times to start making more money on the river by betting out more and hoping for that call.
Example:
$25 NL game. You flopped top set and have bet it out from the flop with just one caller. The pot stands at $6 with a safe board (no straights or flushes possible). You are now trying to extract as much as you can for max value. What is your bet? The small safe $2 bet or the push the pot ($6).
Right now most will say bet the $2 because you get called more often. Say you get a call 60% of the time. Your average winnings for the hand will be $6(.4)+$10(.6) = $8.40. We will consider this the baseline since this is where most people are at right now.
How many times do you need to be called for the pot size bet to make it more profitable? 10%? 20%? Let's say you will only get called 1 in 5 times or 20%. Your average earning will be $6(.80)+ $18(.20) = $8.40. What? You increased your bet but called way less but are making the same amount of money.
You will only need to get called more than 1 in 5 times to start making more money on the river by betting out more and hoping for that call.