Opponent's checkraise % and letting a free card come off post-flop when IP

[Deceitful_Frank]

Hello people!

I had a thought the other morning when playing a 10NL session. I am giving it another crack and have noticed that play (for me atleast) is considerably tougher than at 5NL. I get the distinct impression that people use HUDs a lot more to exploit weakness.

I know that that my flop C-bet% is too high (87%) and I am at present trying to think of ways to sensibly bring it down without distroying my profitablitly. On a side note and seeing as my posting is still restricted is a W$WSF of 46.02 too high?

Anyway back to the point. I know my C-bet is too high and for the moment it will remain so. I get the feeling I get led in to and check-raised quite a lot after the flop once I have built up some history with villains. It could be paranoia but if I was them that's what I would do!

I have looked through my largest databases and figure an average flop check-raise% to be about 5-6%. Is there any milage in using this figure to decide whether it is better to check and let a card come off when IP instead of firing a C-bet or should I C-bet as normal and shove to a check-raise if villain's % is high? ...assuming I have decent fold equity of course!

If so what would you consider an abnormally high check-raise on flop % and haw many hands would I need to have on villain to be able to use this statistic?

Thanks in advance as always!

Frank.

 

[F Paulsson]

I don't look at specifically c/r%; I do keep "raise flop cbet%" in my HUD, though. I'm much (much much much) more likely to check back a flop like T-9-4 with JT versus someone who raises a lot than I am versus someone who almost never raises a cbet. You could probably spend a good few weeks on this topic alone before you even start to feel comfortable about it, so obviously a short post from me here isn't going to get very far, but as a very, very general rule of thumb (with lots of exceptions): Versus someone who raises a lot of flops, it's better to check unless you have a trivial decision when he raises.

For instance: T-9-4 twotone flop. I have 22. I can cbet that flop, because I can turbomuck when he raises.

Or T-9-4 twotone flop, I have 99, and I'd be delighted if he raises me.

Or T-9-4 twotone flop, I have a big draw of some kind (e.g. KJ with a flushdraw) and will shove over his raise when it comes.

Check-raise flop is obviously a percentage that will converge pretty slowly. If you mouse over the HUD it will tell you how many times he has had the chance to do it, not just the percentage. I can't really say what I consider an appropriate sample size to be.

 

[ChuckTs]

Listen to Mr Pau, he knows his stuff. I agree with his whole post.

I can't comment on the overall check-raise % stat, but it is similar to raise vs flop cbet, and with that stat the 'meat' of that range will be something like %12-15. Once it starts getting higher than that is when we start playing wa/wb lines, checking back for pot control, or doing something like bet/3betting with bluffs or bet/shoving with draws.