Low Stakes Poker In California is simply not profitable. Here is why

[PokerPlayerAaron1982]

Well, I don't mind the feedback and any ones opinions or thoughts on this discussion. However i feel its the elephant in the room. A question that is always asked and quite honestly I have good data, and experience too back my opinion on this. First off, I will no longer be playing any 2/3 or 1/3 or 300NL game live anymore. I have simply noticed it cannot and is not a profitable game. Playing once in a blue moon maybe once per month or twice is different. However I'm talking 30-40 hours a week at about 4-5 sessions a week for years. The rake is simply way too high. I'm a 9 year experienced veteran of the game. Have read numerous books, been a member of many poker sites and study the game often. Here is where low stakes is at, in California.

1. Games are now 8 handed (used too be 9 handed)
2. its $5 too see a flop, $6 on the turn, $7 on the river per hand dealt
3. Rake averages roughly $180-$210 per hour at a low stakes game (120-$300 buy in)
4. It's very rare that the game is full, typically most 6-8 handed at any given time.
5. Any 8 hour session the tables raking $1,400-$1,500 in rake (yes a ridiculous amount)

I just recently put in 77 sessions at 2/3 blinds $300 buy in game.
I'm not gonna lie I ran worst then I ever have these past 70+ sessions, 1 outer in a 4k pot, folding my hand in a 2k pot and I had the winning hand but misread my cards etc. etc. Variance etc.

In total I lost $13,938 over these 77 sessions. (3 of them were at 5/5)

I have completely lost faith and belief that you can win in the long run at low stakes it simply can't be possible. This is only 77 sessions, in reality I have probably over 600+ easily. At 2/3

I did the math, $20 per hour of rake, I play usually 10 hours every time (yes a lot), never more. 77 sessions x 10 hours = 770 hours x $20 hourly rake = $15,400 in rake if you wanted too include tips go ahead and throw in another $1,500 easily. That is about $17,000 I spent in these past 4-5 months just too play cards....I know its ridiculous. But this is the amount it cost too play cards in a casino here in California. When I think too myself well damn am I just an awful player? I know I'm not but when you add that kind of rake with running bad it is impossible too beat the game. I have an entire data log of hours played / money won / money lost etc. Sessions etc.

In my opinion I don't think there is anyone who is winning at low stakes poker long term in Cali just can't be possible.

 

[Station_Master]

That rake structure seems crazy. I only play online but it seems that $5 on the flop is going to be a huge percentage of the pot. The only.way to beat such a game would be to play a super tight and aggressive preflop strategy. I.e. big open sizes with only the best hands and no flat calling - just 3bet or fold. Even then I think it would be difficult to beat.

Presumably when you win a pot you need to tip too, adding to the effective rake.

 

[fundiver199]

Well you are not alone in thinking this. Bart Hansson from CrushlivePoker have said the same thing for years:

 

[Rockyfour]

That is the most ****ed up rake structure I have ever seen in my life and if the politicians in California knew even a tiny bit about Poker this would be banned.

That is literally a scam. When people play Poker it is implied that the games are beatable. Phil Ivey himself would bleed money to that rake structure. That is literally so outrageous.

Literally somebody should go to prison for that. That is disgusting.

 

[mtl mile end]

Just to help me understand this:
-This is not a Limit game, correct? I realize there once was a time when all poker in California was limit, but I assume those days are long gone.
-Assuming these games are No Limit, they are charging a fixed rate per street?!?!? There's your problem. How can anyone justify 1.7BB rake on every flop, and 2BB MORE on the Turn (in a $3BB game)

The only live poker I've ever played has a 10% rake up to a limit of $X where X=about 5BB. No rake on a chop.

 

[PokerPlayerAaron1982]

Just to help me understand this:
-This is not a Limit game, correct? I realize there once was a time when all poker in California was limit, but I assume those days are long gone.
-Assuming these games are No Limit, they are charging a fixed rate per street?!?!? There's your problem. How can anyone justify 1.7BB rake on every flop, and 2BB MORE on the Turn (in a $3BB game)

The only live poker I've ever played has a 10% rake up to a limit of $X where X=about 5BB. No rake on a chop.

no i'm sorry i misinterpreted that. So it is a No Limit game with a buy-in of 100-300. The blinds are 2/3. And no Cali has all games available but mostly NL and some Limit. Here is how the blind structure works

It; $5 too see a flop, if it gets too the turn another $1, if it gets too the river another $1. So in total $7 off the pot. However it could never exceed $7 rake in a hand. If we chop there is still $1 rake. 10% seems like an incredible amount tbh.

 

[mtl mile end]

no i'm sorry i misinterpreted that. So it is a No Limit game with a buy-in of 100-300. The blinds are 2/3. And no Cali has all games available but mostly NL and some Limit. Here is how the blind structure works

It; $5 too see a flop, if it gets too the turn another $1, if it gets too the river another $1. So in total $7 off the pot. However it could never exceed $7 rake in a hand. If we chop there is still $1 rake. 10% seems like an incredible amount tbh.

Yes, 10% is high, but it's capped at $10 for $1/2. This pays for your food (yes, food) and drink (less tips). there is also another dollar taken from each hand that sees a flop for the Bad Beat Jackpot.

That's why there's small profits in small stakes.

 

[G0930]

Well, I don't mind the feedback and any ones opinions or thoughts on this discussion. However i feel its the elephant in the room. A question that is always asked and quite honestly I have good data, and experience too back my opinion on this. First off, I will no longer be playing any 2/3 or 1/3 or 300NL game live anymore. I have simply noticed it cannot and is not a profitable game. Playing once in a blue moon maybe once per month or twice is different. However I'm talking 30-40 hours a week at about 4-5 sessions a week for years. The rake is simply way too high. I'm a 9 year experienced veteran of the game. Have read numerous books, been a member of many poker sites and study the game often. Here is where low stakes is at, in California.

1. Games are now 8 handed (used too be 9 handed)
2. its $5 too see a flop, $6 on the turn, $7 on the river per hand dealt
3. Rake averages roughly $180-$210 per hour at a low stakes game (120-$300 buy in)
4. It's very rare that the game is full, typically most 6-8 handed at any given time.
5. Any 8 hour session the tables raking $1,400-$1,500 in rake (yes a ridiculous amount)

I just recently put in 77 sessions at 2/3 blinds $300 buy in game.
I'm not gonna lie I ran worst then I ever have these past 70+ sessions, 1 outer in a 4k pot, folding my hand in a 2k pot and I had the winning hand but misread my cards etc. etc. Variance etc.

In total I lost $13,938 over these 77 sessions. (3 of them were at 5/5)

I have completely lost faith and belief that you can win in the long run at low stakes it simply can't be possible. This is only 77 sessions, in reality I have probably over 600+ easily. At 2/3

I did the math, $20 per hour of rake, I play usually 10 hours every time (yes a lot), never more. 77 sessions x 10 hours = 770 hours x $20 hourly rake = $15,400 in rake if you wanted too include tips go ahead and throw in another $1,500 easily. That is about $17,000 I spent in these past 4-5 months just too play cards....I know its ridiculous. But this is the amount it cost too play cards in a casino here in California. When I think too myself well damn am I just an awful player? I know I'm not but when you add that kind of rake with running bad it is impossible too beat the game. I have an entire data log of hours played / money won / money lost etc. Sessions etc.

In my opinion I don't think there is anyone who is winning at low stakes poker long term in Cali just can't be possible.

Wow that rake is ridiculous...
I was a regular at cashgames when the cardrooms over here where still open.
They charged 1€ for every 12€ in the pot , that seemed a reasonable amount .
1/1 games were not profitable , I learned that the hard way . Just too many players who rely on luck in these games plus the buy in Minimum was only 20€ so 20BB so yeah..😅

The most success I had at 1/3 € blinds , always started with 200-300€
It wasn't much but at least 2-3k a month profit.
God I miss livepoker...

But with your rake in California I would have gone broke long ago . 🤣
That kind of rake actually sounds criminal!

 

[PokerPlayerAaron1982]

ya i agree. its 100 percent bs. It's really unfortunate that this is what pokers turned into just too play at a casino. Basically a marketing scheme too just profit off the players. $300 buy in is honestly a good amount of money. But once that rake is simply too high at that point there basically just taking the money from the players leaving them with crums too play for. Just imagine giving $150-$200 of your paycheck too someone every single day. That is literally what its like playing these smaller games. Even the 5/5 is the same way. But at least when your buying in for $500-$1,000 and there is like 6-8k at the table your able too offset that rake. But yeah man just sucks 300 nl would be such a fun game if it wasn't basically a scam haha.