*** Jubilant January Cash Chat Thread ***

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wrung24

wrung24

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Not sure if this is better here or in the HA section.

I've got a question about analysing hands after a session, specifically putting the opponent on a range based purely on his stats (and maybe a note or two), I'm struggling to do it while the hand is being played so maybe by trying to practice with hands already played I can get better at it, but it's pointless if I start off by doing it wrong. (I use pokerstove)

Heres an example : (any general comments about the hand itself are obviously welcome)

Party Poker - $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem (5 players)
Party Poker Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: $4.11
BB: $0.69
UTG: $2.11
CO Hero: $2.00
BTN: $2.20

Pre-flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO and dealt :9d4: :qd4:
UTG folds, Hero raises $0.08, BTN folds, SB calls $0.07, BB folds

Standard raise in the cutoff, the button is a nit, so is the BB. My goal is to get to the flop heads up and in position against the fish in the SB. What type of range can I put this player on ? His stats say he plays 65/13, but you can't really put him on the top 65% of hands can you?

The problem is I don't have any history with this player (23 hands) which seems common at 2nl, I've only got 4 players with over 250 hands played against me in my database. All I know is that the player has called a raise 5 times out of a possible 8. Of these 5, he showed AJo from the BB, and A4o from the button.

So assuming this guy hasn't really got a clue about position (which may not be true), I can put his range so that A4o is covered (taking off some junk and adding on some PP). His range is now 35%, which I'm behind of :

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.471% 41.64% 01.83% 297346897 13047690.50 { Qd9d }
Hand 1: 56.529% 54.70% 01.83% 390588490 13047690.50 { 22+, A2s+, K3s+, Q6s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A4o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Am I doing this completely wrong ? Any other thoughts ?

My goal is not to bore you to death, so I think the best would be to go street by street.

Thanks.
 
No Brainer

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I've thought about this before, but how are people so delusional when it comes to poker? It just amazes me how many times I can talk to someone who is a losing player but they just blame it on variance. It just baffles me how people overestimate their skill. I'd like to think I don't fall into that category but wow sometimes.

Kinda the same thing as people saying if you have 20, 50, 100 buy ins you will never go broke. It doesn't matter how many you have, if you are a losing player you will go broke...
 
wrung24

wrung24

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I love how you say tldr then gave me the link to the longest post ever posted anywhere ! Nice link, I'll read through it.

I guess I could condense my post into a question. If an opponent plays 65% of his hands, does his starting guestimate range include the top 65% of hands no matter what the situation ?
 
No Brainer

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There can be exceptions. If you plug 15% into pokerstove you only get pairs down to 7. Most of the time someone who is calling 15% of hands will be calling all pairs so we can adjust this to suit.

You should also consider position. If villain is positionally aware they will be playing more from later position. We can get this info from the HUD but it does take a lot longer for positional stats to become reliable than just using vpip or pfr.
 
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Boomswitch

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I've thought about this before, but how are people so delusional when it comes to poker? It just amazes me how many times I can talk to someone who is a losing player but they just blame it on variance. It just baffles me how people overestimate their skill. I'd like to think I don't fall into that category but wow sometimes.


Thats me in a nutshell...
 
No Brainer

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Jagsti did you win a buy in with your first hand of the year??
 
F Paulsson

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Anyone with a PS3: Could you please go to www.thedailyshow.com (on the console, not your pc, thanks) and tell me if you can stream the videos from there properly.

ty!
 
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MaxiRodriguez

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rrgh my 50NL debut was going so well until i donked off 200bbs.
 

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orangepeeleo

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Finally got black ops for the 360, game tags peeleo if anyone wants to add me
 
Jagsti

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Jagsti did you win a buy in with your first hand of the year??

Not quite, 5th hand to be precise.

poker stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em $0.10 Ante - 5 players - View hand 1102644
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $103.35
CO: $114.20
BTN: $115.05
SB: $125.00
Hero (BB): $50.00

Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is BB with 2 2
UTG calls $0.50, CO raises to $2.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $2, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($8.25) 9 6 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $6, UTG folds, CO calls $6

Turn: ($20.25) J (2 players)
Hero bets $12.50, CO calls $12.50

River: ($45.25) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $28.90 all in, CO calls $28.90

Final Pot: $103.05
CO mucks 9 J
Hero shows 2 2 (three of a kind, Deuces)
Hero wins $101.05
(Rake: $2.00)
 
vanquish

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imagine how much you could have won if you had bought in deep
 
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Marginal

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Thats me in a nutshell...

Nah Im talking about people who after rb are still down 50BI or something yet they insist they just run bad.
 
Jagsti

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imagine how much you could have won if you had bought in deep

Hmmm, yeah I know but tbh I Haven't got that comfortable of a bankroll to be buying in deep. Although it's not far away now.
 
vanquish

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you guys that play FR: do you ever fold AKo to a single open raise? eg. maybe in the BB vs. a super nit's UTG raise?
 
vanquish

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i feel like i'm not always playing it profitably (esp. OOP)


in position its ez, but OOP i feel like i'm getting raped in a bunch of standard spots (pretty much when i'm in the blinds vs. EP raiser)
 
WVHillbilly

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you guys that play FR: do you ever fold AKo to a single open raise? eg. maybe in the BB vs. a super nit's UTG raise?

Yep.
 
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vanquish

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like i guess there are spots where in theory i'd be flatting (SB vs. UTG raiser) but it just flops so poorly (as compared to QQ for example) that i feel like i should just dump it
 
Jagsti

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Really? Surely QQ is in a nits utg range, even so look at how many pots we can take down off a nit with turn plays on a mid-low board.

Granted playing oop sucks, but I'm looking at ways to improve and reduce my -ptbb/100 from the blinds.

Edit: Nits fold so much to turn aggression it's not even funny!
 
WVHillbilly

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Really? Surely QQ is in a nits utg range, even so look at how many pots we can take down off a nit with turn plays on a mid-low board.

Granted playing oop sucks, but I'm looking at ways to improve and reduce my -ptbb/100 from the blinds.

Edit: Nits fold so much to turn aggression it's not even funny!

You need to read edits. :)

Yeah, vanquish definitely just flatting against some guys.
 
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Big_Rudy

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Yeah, I fold it all the time (well maybe not ALL the time) v. a nits UTG range. But, then again, I AM a nit so I prefer not to get into coin-flip situations OOP which is about the best you can hope for with A-Ko if a nit is raising UTG.

P.S. you say "nit" like that's a bad thing:D .
 
PC69

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Tony G is destroying Isildur so far $ wise and talking like a real asshole in the chat. Telling him he controls him like a baby, hes a complete idiot donk, another BR down the drain. Non stop chuckles
 
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