how many BI's down?

[RamdeeBen]

Yeah, I am pretty new so I know I can't be sure of myself. But when I analyze the big losses they often seem well played (and those that are tricky end up in HH forum), admittedly some are horrible but there are less and less of those now.

Can someone explain the All In EV graph thingy?

Of course when you analyze a big losses they seem well played, it will be bad beats which you're focusing on.

I bet you don't analyze huge winning sessions where you ran like god do you, got it in as a dog etc. I bet you brush it off as a "Well, thats nice, makes a change"? Thus, you don't focue on your winning sessions as you will know you sucked out and ran well in general so don't wish to look at that

EV line basically represents when the money goes in; who actually has the best hand and you can't control the outcome of the other cards.

For example: AA allin pre flop vs KK.

If he spikes a K, your winning/profits line drops; yet your "expected value line" goes up.

 

[LD1977]

Actually I look at big showdowns, both winning and losing.

I might be biased but it seems I get more bad beats than good beats, but my cards are on average better than those of the opposition so this is normal, no?

So difference in incline between EV line and money line is basically the good/bad short term luck?

 

[RamdeeBen]

Actually I look at big showdowns, both winning and losing.

I might be biased but it seems I get more bad beats than good beats, but my cards are on average better than those of the opposition so this is normal, no?

So difference in incline between EV line and money line is basically the good/bad short term luck?

Of course you will be biased, because effectively you are/ we are. It's all physiological; it "seems" you get more bad beats because you're mentally effected by a bad beat, so remember it better.

Of course, if you're a winning player; you will get it in good more than bad but I think we're very selective in memory when it comes to getting it in good/bad.

The EV line represents what you "should" have won when the money went in, this can be long term/short term depending on your hand sample sizes.

 

[LD1977]

Basically a good player should normally have an EV line that goes steadily up, meaning he reads situations well so is almost always getting AI with better hands?

 

[micromachine]

Basically a good player should normally have an EV line that goes steadily up, meaning he reads situations well so is almost always getting AI with better hands?

Not at all, good players and bad players can run below or above EV. If a good player goes all in with AA 3 times and loses to KK each time he will be almost 3 buy-ins below EV, even though he went all in with the best hand.

 

[LD1977]

Yes, so his EV line will go up.

 

[micromachine]

Yeah sorry lol

 

[LD1977]

OK so if we look at my graph above there are two components:

1. my AI decisions were not good (EV graph goes down) or were unlucky a few times
2. the luck was even worse (cash graph goes down even more quickly than it should have)

So, I need to fix the EV graph while the luck is out of my hands anyway.

 

[micromachine]

Don't worry too much about your EV line, it isn't that useful actually....although it can indicate whether you are being lucky or not in all in situations it doesn't take into account coolers or when you run into the top of villains ranges ie. you played well but your EV line will go down. Only one you have to worry about is the green line.

 

[RamdeeBen]

Yeah, try not to focus to much on EV line, even though I've been guilty of this in the past.

I mean; you could be a great player and get KK/QQ/JJ or whatever all-in 100 times vs AA to complete donkeys who have been aggro'.

These would be classed as fine spots to get the chips in; but was coolered big time vs that particular player, but all-in EV lines doesn't care about that so basically it will make your EV look bad on a graph but vs particular players, it's always going to be a +EV move.

Expected value vs ones range is a better indication as opposed to EV lines which takes no hand ranges into account of nits or your complete LAGS.

 

[LD1977]

Yup, I understand and agree. Thorough hand analysis one by one is the only way to see what is the underlying cause of defeat

 

[RamdeeBen]

Yup! Pretty much!

 

[Cafeman]

Ouch that is so much worse than what happened to me, I am ashamed to have brought it up now

Edit:
You mean "All In EV" line in HEM? What does that show? Correlation between quality of cards and overall result?

My "All In EV" line seems to correlate more less to the overall line, but if you look at the most recent downswing it seems that there are discrepancies which are those bad beats.

Unless I'm misreading your graph, looks like you were/are running hot.

 

[Samango]

Try not to worry about how many BI's you might lose in one session at all if possible as this kind of very short term measurement is not really useful.

 

[LD1977]

Unless I'm misreading your graph, looks like you were/are running hot.

This is sarcasm?

All lines are clearly in a downward trend:
- green = net won
- red = non showdown
- blue = showdown
- orange = All In EV

Green line has some dips that "shouldn't" be there if we look at orange line, which means there were some bad beats involved.

P.S. If you mean there is space between those lines, it is like that throughout the graph so I guess that is normal?

 

[Cafeman]

This is sarcasm?

No, I wasn't being sarcastic.

Your green line appears to be well above your orange line, which seems to indicate that you are running well for things like flips, hitting combo-draws, etc.

 

[LD1977]

This is my entire graph (13.3k hands), orange line is always well below the others.

Can you tell me what this might mean, and is there anything else unusual about the graph?

Edit: Stars are 1k, 5k, 10k hands, green mark is all time high.

 

[ScottishMatt]

Precisely as Cafeman said, it would appear you are on a heater.

All in EV is really low, so it means you are getting it in as an underdog. While your actual profits are well above the line. In essence you are just getting lucky, and I don't mean this in a bad way but it looks like you will struggle to maintain profit levels once your luck runs out.

As people have said, don't pay attention to the EV line. However you seem to be getting the money in behind enough for it to affect your winnings when things go sour. I'm not sure how to go about helping you fix this but I guess you should have a higher all-in requirement when playing a hand. I'm sure others will be able to go into more depth on the matter.

 

[LD1977]

My big problem for a while has been calling All Ins on turn and river... I have largely stopped doing that though.

As for the heater, I suppose it is probably true if the graph says so

 

[benevg]

Can someone explain the All In EV graph thingy?

other have explained it already, but here is a bit more: if you never go all in before the river, your AIEV line will be the same as your green line. any time you go all in by the turn at latest and someone has outs, those two lines will diverge - and the person who won the hand will have a higher green line than orange line. the person who lost will have a higher orange line than the green one. in effect this would measure your "luck", except for the fact that luck really encompasses a lot more than just the random chance of certain cards hitting or not.

a note of advice: never take the orange line seriously. it will mostly diverge from your actual result and that is cause for you to tilt no matter which way it goes. if the orange line is above the green, then "all the donks always hit on you, and you are so unlucky" (which usually causes people to play even riskier since they "are due some luck"), while if it is above, then "you are just a fish on a heater, and a lucksack to boot"

Basically a good player should normally have an EV line that goes steadily up, meaning he reads situations well so is almost always getting AI with better hands?

this is almost entirely wrong. no matter how well you read situations, if someone who shoves literally every hand happens to have AA the same hand you decided to call with your KK, touch luck, your orange line is still going down. also, the orange line incorporates your winnings/losses without showdown. as someone who wins without SD extremely often, i can tell you that the way this line goes does not reflect the way i read situations at all

once again: disregard the orange line. analyze other aspects of your game. they are worth it, this is just a loss of your time (and of everyone else's that you bother with it as well).

 

[LD1977]

I only found out about EV line yesterday

Anyway, I am not bothered much by it except I am glad I got lucky early when my bankroll was 6.5$ won on freerolls now I can take a downswing or two if I must.

"I'd rather be lucky than good."