Hole Cards Confessions Study Group: Range

[acky100]

Haven't looked at the spoiler but i like the look of calling down, i think his range will is also weak-marginal, so yep the weak shape. Hmm, river... I think when he bets this small we could maybe raise to like 8? to get calls from all pocket pairs and maybe even a 5 but i dont know why he'd have 5's in his range apart from A5, but then again he is an idiot like you said so yeah

 

[gsxr5221]

I like the way Owen used graphical representation to help visualize different ranges. I had never seen that done before. I think it would be a good exercise for this thread for people to post hand histories and tell what they think their opponents range is.

An example of what I think is a polarized range on the river:
Merge - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $15.80
UTG: $14.08
UTG+1: $18.98
MP: $10.00
MP+1: $10.00
CO: $22.38
Hero (BTN): $10.05
SB: $8.05

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 7<font color='black'>♠</font> 7<font color='black'>♣</font>

fold, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.45, SB calls $0.40, BB calls $0.35, fold

Flop: ($1.45, 3 players) 7<font color='red'>♥</font> 8<font color='black'>♠</font> 5<font color='red'>♥</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, fold, BB calls $1.25

Turn: ($3.95, 2 players) 6<font color='red'>♥</font>
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($3.95, 2 players) 5<font color='black'>♣</font>
BB bets $1.00

Villain is 26/12/2 and I don't think he ever really leads the river with a marginal made hand (TP/small overpairs) as he's more likely to ch/call with those hands. So when he leads the river he's got air or a strong hand .

I know I am a little late on this, but imo he could have a few different hands, like two overs with the flush draw, or straight draw but when you check behind on the turn after both of these become possible he bets 25% of the pot on the river looking to get some value from the hand to make up for what was missed on the turn, I wouldn't be placing him on (TP/small overs) here in most cases though.

 

[WVHillbilly]

I know I am a little late on this, but imo he could have a few different hands, like two overs with the flush draw, or straight draw but when you check behind on the turn after both of these become possible he bets 25% of the pot on the river looking to get some value from the hand to make up for what was missed on the turn, I wouldn't be placing him on (TP/small overs) here in most cases though.

He almost never has a weak made hand here. Certainly not the type of player who is going to go for thin value with TP hoping that I'll call with Ace high. In fact if he is betting a hand like A8 here it's almost always because he thinks he's bluffing. Still he much more likely to bluff catch with it (ch/call) than he is to turn it into a bluff.

 

[jbbb]

Struggling to find any good examples here.

Another old one, villain is 8/6, think i should of c-bet this one! Made the river big with this one because nits like their precious money, and although he might have me beat a lot here he isnt gonna be thinking enough to call me down because nits are scared and when he see's a big bet he's never calling.

When he flats in the BB I think this is always a PP or specifically AQs. Definitely c-bet and maybe barrel if you think he'll float flop with a underpair.

 

[acky100]

Yep i dont know why i didnt c-bet, it was a long time ago

 

[gsxr5221]

When he flats in the BB I think this is always a PP or specifically AQs. Definitely c-bet and maybe barrel if you think he'll float flop with a underpair.

I agree with you here

 

[Cafeman]

A hand from this morning:-

poker stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

Hero (MP): $60.24
CO: $73.62 - 24/15/3.3, 310 hands.
BTN: $51.02
SB: $77.42
BB: $74.36
UTG: $50.18

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with Q ♣ Q ♦
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 9 ♠ 9 ♦ Q ♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $2.25, CO calls $2.25

Turn: ($8.25) T ♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero raises to $15, CO folds

Final Pot: $18.25
Hero mucks Q ♣ Q ♦
Hero wins $17.06
(Rake: $1.19)

OK, the history of this was that I suspected he'd floated me a couple of times (I double barrelled him once and he folded, but whenever I checked turn he'd bet). I decided that since I hit the flop so hard I would set him up for a c/r on the turn. My flop bet was smallish because I really wanted to sell my story (cbet and then give up), maybe this was a mistake because I would collect more money later on? Anyway...

Preflop: villain's range is bell, because he's not calling my UTG open with just ATC.
Flop: villain's range is difficult to determine because imo he's floating a lot, so here maybe it's flat (he would probably call with everything - even his strong hands like T9s/98s).
Turn: weak/bell.

Would you agree with that?

 

[QTipDTB]

A hand from this morning:-

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

Hero (MP): $60.24
CO: $73.62 - 24/15/3.3, 310 hands.
BTN: $51.02
SB: $77.42
BB: $74.36
UTG: $50.18

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with Q ♣ Q ♦
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 9 ♠ 9 ♦ Q ♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $2.25, CO calls $2.25

Turn: ($8.25) T ♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero raises to $15, CO folds

Final Pot: $18.25
Hero mucks Q ♣ Q ♦
Hero wins $17.06
(Rake: $1.19)

OK, the history of this was that I suspected he'd floated me a couple of times (I double barrelled him once and he folded, but whenever I checked turn he'd bet). I decided that since I hit the flop so hard I would set him up for a c/r on the turn. My flop bet was smallish because I really wanted to sell my story (cbet and then give up), maybe this was a mistake because I would collect more money later on? Anyway...

Preflop: villain's range is bell, because he's not calling my UTG open with just ATC.
Flop: villain's range is difficult to determine because imo he's floating a lot, so here maybe it's flat (he would probably call with everything - even his strong hands like T9s/98s).
Turn: weak/bell.

Would you agree with that?

Pretty good example hand. I think there on the turn the shape probably doesn't fit really well into a specific mold. There's probably a fair amount of weak stuff in there along with marginal hands as well as a few monsters...but I wouldn't call it flat either

I do like incorporating a turn c/r against opponent's who do a fair amount of float/bet lines. This gives you chance to pick up more equity in future hands by putting some fear in them.

Having said that, I think there would be better turn cards to use for that. The Ts is a pretty good card for you to extract more value from floating hands. I would say a good portion of his range is now going to have paired up and is looking like a pair + draw. Of course, if he'll call a c/r with that, then a c/r is better than betting too. So, some pretty specific stuff there. However, if his floating range is extremely large and the portion of floating hands with more equity is relatively small in comparison to his garbage AND he'll bet his garbage, then I imagine - without running it - you're better off with the c/r. As I said, you need some pretty specific info to determine the best play in these spots.

In general, I'd like leading that turn pretty large and save the c/r line for less valuable turn cards.

 

[Cafeman]

Thanks for that response. Really thought provoking. I hadn't considered the 'value' of the Ts with regard to his calling range on the turn. Just goes to show that I'm either too rigid when it comes to setting out a plan for the hand pre or on the flop, or I am just not very good at reading things like that. Either way, that's given me a great tip to focus on.

 

[orangepeeleo]

I'm never sure about turn c/r's when we actually have it, people are so used to shutting down vs a turn c/r that I think its difficult to get value here like that. A lot of his range will be floaty weak shit and draws so I check/call the turn, let him float flop and bet turn like he wanted to, hope the river is good enough for him to call a decent size vbet with or get it in over the top of a river lead from us?? Might be way off but this kinda spot is difficult to get max value from unless you cooler someone right?

 

[Cafeman]

Tend to agree with you peelie, but at the same time I wanted to slow this guy down a little, cos he was getting out of hand. I didn't want him to think that whenever I checked the turn I was giving up. A bit like when you cold call a premium on the BTN waiting to get squeezed yet again.

Does anyone have a c/r range on the turn? I didn't/don't. Do we even need one in the micros? Maybe not.

 

[orangepeeleo]

Would it not be better then to do this with a bluff first, or at least something that you dont want to go to showdown.

If you c/r the turn with air and then c/f the river, or showdown a med-PP or w/e, thats gonna set you up for a payoff when you c/r the turn with a hand like a flopped house.

Choosing a value hand as the hand to take a stand with vs someone who you know is fos a lot seems a bit backward to me, if you think about it, ideally the hand prev you would have taken the same line with 72 and showed it down or c/f the river, then when taking the line with a house you get paid off?? But meh, this is 50nl and 6max so what do I know, just trying to join in and get myself thinking

 

[Cafeman]

Nah, you're right, but I didn't know on the hand before that the next hand I was flopping the nuts!

But what you are talking about is what I asked, should we even bother to construct a turn c/r range in the micros? I am still finding that the majority of the time tight/weak is the winning play. The above hand is out of the ordinary for me. I recently started to think that a leak in my game was not 'dealing' with floaters well enough. Now I'm not so sure. Yeah, I can double barrel like a trooper, but I never (usually) c/r turn OOP as PFR.

Obviously for the purpose of this conversation I'm talking about vs thinking players/regs.

EDIT: To be clear, I'm talking about c/r turn with us as the PFR.