Downswing vs being bad

G

GTpoker

Rising Star
Joined
Oct 5, 2018
Total posts
11
Hi all!

A quick summary: I started in NL2 with 51 dollars like more than a year ago and with a lot of study I move up to NL5 with 200 dollars and then to Nl10 when I reached 400 dolares. Since then I went up to 702 dollars and I started losing without stop.

I have 647 dollars now and I have a lot of doubts about my game. Curretnly a little more than 5 buy ins of NL10 down.. (4.100 hands losing) Considering NL10 is microstakes... Should I check my game? How many hands and buy ins can a downswing last?

Thanks for reading and would love to get feedback!
 
S

simmo5050

Enthusiast
Joined
Nov 19, 2018
Total posts
34
Here are some points:

You only have a 40bi roll.
You do not specify how many hands you've played to reach this.
You don't give a bb/100 win rate.

Here's some info.
Play for 250,000 hands. If your win rate is 3bb or higher, you can experience downswings that will be bigger and longer lasting than almost anything you've ever heard about.

If you are winning at a lower rate, these swings are more likely to occur and could be bigger.

Downswings tilt nearly everyond thus making the swing worse but evsn amazing world class players get downswings.

Here's some advice:
- have a 100+ buyin br.
- drop down once you lose 10-15bis.
- ignore more of the bs on the net. Most players lose. A small percentage breakeven/win tiny. A tiny percentage do amazingly.

- Keep studying and focus on playing well.


I'll guess that a proper downswing kills the rolls of most wannabe players who then grumble about poker being rigged.
 
KozakAlex

KozakAlex

Visionary
Joined
Nov 26, 2017
Total posts
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Hi all!

A quick summary: I started in NL2 with 51 dollars like more than a year ago and with a lot of study I move up to NL5 with 200 dollars and then to Nl10 when I reached 400 dolares. Since then I went up to 702 dollars and I started losing without stop.

I have 647 dollars now and I have a lot of doubts about my game. Curretnly a little more than 5 buy ins of NL10 down.. (4.100 hands losing) Considering NL10 is microstakes... Should I check my game? How many hands and buy ins can a downswing last?

Thanks for reading and would love to get feedback!


Perhaps it is because you are not ready to play against stronger players at an increased level. Maybe you should go back to the old level to continue earning money. Alternatively, remove some of the money for the rest play the appropriate level and earn money. Then shoot again.
 
F

fundiver199

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Loyaler
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Jun 3, 2019
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Losing 5BI in a cash game is absolutely nothing. So the only weird thing is, that this has not happened to you many times already. Even 20-30 BI downswings are common, and they can last for over 100.000 hands, unless your winrate is really high. Use this tool to get a more realistic idea of poker variance:

https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
 
D

Dhendrixon

Rock Star
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Jul 27, 2020
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The key to moving up in stakes is to only use a portion of a bankroll you are willing to lose at those stakes. If you go through that amount of money, then you need to drop back down in stakes and build it back up and try again.
 
thedarkman

thedarkman

Visionary
Joined
Jan 1, 2016
Total posts
985
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2
Hi all!

A quick summary: I started in NL2 with 51 dollars like more than a year ago and with a lot of study I move up to NL5 with 200 dollars and then to Nl10 when I reached 400 dolares. Since then I went up to 702 dollars and I started losing without stop.

I have 647 dollars now and I have a lot of doubts about my game. Curretnly a little more than 5 buy ins of NL10 down.. (4.100 hands losing) Considering NL10 is microstakes... Should I check my game? How many hands and buy ins can a downswing last?

Thanks for reading and would love to get feedback!


No limit hold 'em or no limit anything is insane. Expect massive downswings however well you play.
 
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